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MNI EGB Issuance, Redemption and Cash Flow Matrix - W/C Nov 20

  • Slovakia, Germany, Finland and Italy are all due to issue in the week ahead. We pencil in gross nominal issuance of E10.8bln, down from E31.0bln this week.
  • The week ahead sees redemptions of E10.4bln – E6.3bln of a formerly 6-year BTP Italia and E4.0bln of a formerly 10-year ESM-bond while coupon payments for the week are E0.5bln.
  • This leaves net flows for the week close to flat at an estimated negative E0.1bln, down from positive E26.9bln this week.

For more see the full PDF here:

EZ231120.pdf

Week Ahead Supply

  • Slovakia will look to kick off issuance for the week on Monday, with potentially its last auction of 2023 (the MNI Markets team thinks it is fairly unlikely that the December reserve auction will be utilised). On offer will be the 0.125% Jun-27 SlovGB (ISIN: SK4000017380), the 4.00% Oct-32 SlovGB (ISIN: SK4000021986), the 3.625% Jun-33 SlovGB (ISIN: SK4000023230) and the 3.75% Feb-35 SlovGB (ISIN: SK4000022539).
  • Tuesday will see Germany come to the market to hold its last Bobl auction of 2023 with E3.5bln of the 2.40% Oct-28 Bobl (ISIN: DE000BU25018) on offer.
  • Tuesday will also see Finland come to the market with up to E700mln of the on-the-run 3.00% Sep-33 RFGB (ISIN: FI4000550249) on offer alongside up to E300mln of the off-the-run 0.125% Apr-36 RFGB (ISIN: FI4000415153).
  • Wednesday will see Germany return to the market to hold a 15-year Bund auction. On offer will be E500mln of the off-the-run 0% May-35 Bund (ISIN: DE0001102515) alongside E1bln of the on-the-run 1.00% May-38 Bund (ISIN: DE0001102598).
  • On Friday, Italy will conclude issuance for the week with a BTP Short Term / BTPei auction. We look for a reopening of the 3.60% Sep-25 BTP Short Term (ISIN: IT0005557084) for E2.0-2.5bln. We don’t have a strong conviction regarding the BTPei that will be on offer. Details will be announced on Tuesday. However, we note that this could also be the last BTP-ST/BTPei auction of the year with the MEF often cancelling the auction that is scheduled between Christmas and New Year.
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