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MNI Europe Pi (Positioning Indicator): Longs Chase BTP Rally

Most European bond futures contracts have maintained "flat" structural positioning since our last biweekly update. This has come amid price deterioration for core/semi-core EGBs and Gilts as the "reflation" trade has picked up steam globally. In contrast, BTPs have rallied (with positioning moving from flat to long) amid lower political risk.

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  • GERMANY: Bobl has retained its long structural positioning over the past few weeks, despite longs being reduced last week. While Schatz and Bund also saw longs reduced last week, overall positioning remains flat. Notably, Buxl has shifted to flat from long previously, with shorts set last week.
  • OAT: Structural positioning has done little in the past fortnight, remaining flat. Shorts were set last week.
  • GILT: Positioning has remained flat through 2021 so far after spending most of late 2020 in long territory (pre-Brexit deal). Still flat now, with shorts set last week.
  • BTP: Positioning has moved back to long after briefly moving flat in late January. The contract saw some short covering last week.


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