MNI European Fixed Income Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

     Click below for today's MNI FI Technical Analysis Report -

https://tinyurl.com/nhjogts

BUND TECHS: (Z17) Decline Heads Toward Decent 161.86-161.85 Support

*RES 4: 162.88 Hourly recovery high Nov 9

*RES 3: 162.73 Nov 9 close, now resistance

*RES 2: 162.55/56 Nov 13, Nov 10 highs

*RES 1: 162.35/40 Hourly resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 162.05                                    

*SUP 1: 161.85/86 Hourly base Oct 27, 61.8% of 160.76-163.63

*SUP 2: 161.44 76.4% Fibo of 160.76-163.63

*SUP 3: 161.11/12 1% volatility band, 8 week support line

*SUP 4: 160.76 Oct 25 low

*COMMENTARY* The fallout from the 'shooting star' candle close last Wednesday

continues. Monday saw the loss of 162.13 support, as we now make our way toward

what is anticipated to be decent support in the 161.86-161.85 area. This also

the swing target of the recent 162.13-162.55 recovery. Resistance falls slightly

to 162.35-162.40, back above the latter would be helpful but no real impetus

will follow until 162.56 is breached.

     BOBL TECHS: (Z17) Appearance Of A Bearish 'Shooting Star' Foils Rally

*RES 4: 132.06 Nov 8 high

*RES 3: 131.97 Congestion area Nov 7-Nov 9

*RES 2: 131.88 Hourly high Nov 9

*RES 1: 131.78 Nov 10 high

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 131.65 

*SUP 1: 131.63/64 Nov 13, Nov 2 lows

*SUP 2: 131.57 Hourly base Oct 27, 50% of 131.09-132.06

*SUP 3: 131.46 61.8% Fibo of 131.09-132.06

*SUP 4: 131.32 76.4% Fibo of 131.09-132.06

*COMMENTARY* A high of 132.06 before correcting lower on the back of some

overbought hourly conditions. Some concern here, given the appearance of a

potentially bearish 'shooting star' candle close last Wednesday. Initial support

from the Oct 27 high at 131.85 has been lost, any lower and the potential for a

further 131.64-131.46 fall appears. The latter then the next real support of

note. Resistance meanwhile falls to 131.78-131.88.

SCHATZ TECHS: (Z17) Rally Still Faltering At 112.310

*RES 4: 112.410 Equality rise from 112.250

*RES 3: 112.390 0.1% volatility band

*RES 2: 112.350 38.2% Fibo of 113.310-111.760

*RES 1: 112.310 Oct 30, Nov 6, 7 & 8 highs

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 112.260 

*SUP 1: 112.250 Nov 1, Nov 2, Nov 13 lows

*SUP 2: 112.220 Oct 4 high, now support

*SUP 3: 112.190 Hourly basing area Oct 18-19

*SUP 4: 112.150 Oct 25 low

*COMMENTARY* The 112.310 area has become a problem for the recent rally, being

halted here on several occasions now. That said, will need to lose 112.250

support, before there is scope to see some correction of gains from the 112.150

low of Oct 25. This would allow a gradual 112.220-112.190 fall next. A

successful challenge and break of that 112.310 level will target 112.350 next.

GILT TECHS: (Z17) Finds Support Ahead of 124.20 Fibo Level

*RES 4: 125.30 Hourly recovery high Nov 9

*RES 3: 125.04 Nov 9 low, hourly resistance

*RES 2: 124.92 Nov 10 high

*RES 1: 124.72 Hourly resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 124.51 

*SUP 1: 124.28 Nov 10 low

*SUP 2: 124.20 Hourly basing area Oct 30-31, 61.8% Fibo

*SUP 3: 123.81/84 76.4% Fibo of 123.17-125.87, Nov 1 low

*SUP 4: 123.64 1% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* Rally reached 125.87 last Wednesday, just shy of a test to the next

resistance area of note at 125.97. This a 50% Fibo retrace level as well as the

upper 1% volatility band at the time. As a result, we have seen a pullback which

has lost 124.95 support. Loss here introduces further caution, especially given

the 'Gravestone Doji' candle close on the daily chart Wednesday. Next supports

now 124.20-123.81. Resistance 124.72-124.92.

     SHORT-STERLING TECHS: (H18) 99.400 Proving Tough To Break

*RES 4: 99.500 61.8% Fibo of 99.620-99.300

*RES 3: 99.460 Sep 12 low, 50% Fibo of 99.620-99.300

*RES 2: 99.420 38.2% Fibo of 99.620-99.300

*RES 1: 99.400 Nov 3, Nov 6, Nov 9, Nov 10 highs

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.390                                  

*SUP 1: 99.360 Hourly support

*SUP 2: 99.350 Alternating daily support/resistance

*SUP 3: 99.330 Hourly basing area Oct

*SUP 4: 99.320 Oct 25-26 lows

*COMMENTARY* Has continued the correction of the 99.620-99.300 fall seen

throughout September this year. Got a little stuck around the 99.400 area this

month and while this continues there is scope to see a a pullback. In this

respect, 99.360-99.350 provides initial support. Only below the latter will

concern at present and allow a further 99.330-99.320 fall. Directly above 99.400

and next targets are between 99.420-99.460.

     EURIBOR TECHS: (H18) 100.330 Resistance Still Capping

*RES 4: 100.375 Daily bull channel top

*RES 3: 100.360 Oct 6 high, 76.4% Fibo of 100.420-100.140

*RES 2: 100.330 Oct 19 high

*RES 1: 100.325 Repeated daily highs Sep, Oct & Nov 2107

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.320

*SUP 1: 100.310 Oct 26 low

*SUP 2: 100.300 Alternating daily support/resistance

*SUP 3: 100.280 Jul 24 low

*SUP 4: 100.250 Lows from late June early July

*COMMENTARY* Has spent the last two months trying to break free of

100.325-100.330 resistance. This basically in line with a 61.8% Fibo retrace of

the 100.420-100.140 fall seen in the second half of 2016. That said, support has

also been pretty steady throughout that time, above 100.300. will need a break

of this 100.330-100.300 range before a new direction can be plotted.

     US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (Z17) Decline Edges Towards A Test Of Key 124-155

Support

*RES 4: 125-150/160 Nov 7, Oct 19 highs

*RES 3: 125-080 Series hourly highs Nov 9

*RES 2: 125-015 Nov 9 low, now resistance

*RES 1: 124-290 Nov 13 high

*PRICE: 124-185 @0430GMT

*SUP 1: 124-155 Hourly basing area Oct 25-26

*SUP 2: 124-060/065 Oct 25, Mar 29 lows

*SUP 3: 123-255 1% volatility band

*SUP 4: 123-235 76.4% Fibo of 122-145/127-285

*COMMENTARY* Unable to sustain a break above the 76.4% Fibo retrace level at

125-135. A high of 125-150 last week and failed to challenge resistance from

between the higher 125-160/125-195 area. The subsequent fall below 125-005 was

the immediate concern, a low of 124-175 so far, with the downside still

protected by the lower 124-155 level. In the meantime, look to 124-290/125-015

for resistance.

     EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: 3582.0-3583.0 Keeps Immediate Bias Lower

*RES 4: 3636.0 Nov 8 low, now resistance

*RES 3: 3615.0 Nov 10 high

*RES 2: 3598.0 Nov 13 high

*RES 1: 3582/83.0 Nov 9, Nov 10 lows, now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3576.0  

*SUP 1: 3549.0 Hourly support

*SUP 2: 3540.0 Nov 13 low

*SUP 3: 3532.0 50% Fibo of 3361.0-3703.0

*SUP 4: 3493.0 Sep 15 low

*COMMENTARY* Another sharp fall on Monday, losing 3568.0 support in the process,

to reach a low on the day of 3540.0, just ahead of Fibo support at 3532.0. This

followed by a decent bounce, aided by the presence of some near term oversold

conditions. To be of any significance, this recovery will need to reclaim levels

back above last week's 3582.0-3583.0 lows. Through here would have the capacity

to suggest a correction of losses from the month's 3703.0 high is underway. 

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]