MNI European Fixed Income Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

     Click below for today's MNI FI Technical Analysis Report -

https://tinyurl.com/nhjogts

BUND TECHS: (Z17) Finds Support Ahead Of 161.86-161.85 

*RES 4: 163.22 Nov 8 low, 76.4% Fibo of 163.63-161.91

*RES 3: 162.97 61.8% Fibo of 163.63-161.91

*RES 2: 162.73 Nov 9 close, now resistance

*RES 1: 162.55/56 Nov 13, Nov 10 highs

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 162.42                                    

*SUP 1: 161.86/91 61.8% of 160.76-163.63, Nov 14 low

*SUP 2: 161.44 76.4% Fibo of 160.76-163.63

*SUP 3: 161.08/14 1% volatility band, 8 week support line

*SUP 4: 160.76 Oct 25 low

*COMMENTARY* The fallout from the 'shooting star' candle close continued on

Tuesday, a low of 161.9, on the approach to what looked very decent support

around the 161.86-161.85 area. This also being the swing target of the recent

162.13-162.55 recovery. The subsequent bounce on the back of some oversold

hourly conditions has made it's way back towards 162.55-162.56. Back above the

latter is required to add impetus to any recovery.

     BOBL TECHS: (Z17) Appearance Of A Bearish 'Shooting Star' Foils Rally

*RES 4: 132.06 Nov 8 high

*RES 3: 131.97 Congestion area Nov 7-Nov 9

*RES 2: 131.88 Hourly high Nov 9

*RES 1: 131.78 Nov 10 high

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 131.71 

*SUP 1: 131.62/64 Hourly support

*SUP 2: 131.57 Hourly base Oct 27, 50% of 131.09-132.06

*SUP 3: 131.46 61.8% Fibo of 131.09-132.06

*SUP 4: 131.32 76.4% Fibo of 131.09-132.06

*COMMENTARY* A high of 132.06 before correcting lower on the back of some

overbought hourly conditions. Some concern here, given the appearance of a

potentially bearish 'shooting star' candle close last Wednesday. Initial support

from the Oct 27 high at 131.85 has been lost, any lower and the potential for a

further 131.57-131.46 fall appears. The latter then the next real support of

note. Resistance meanwhile falls to 131.78-131.88.

SCHATZ TECHS: (Z17) Rally Still Faltering At 112.310

*RES 4: 112.410 Equality rise from 112.250

*RES 3: 112.390 0.1% volatility band

*RES 2: 112.350 38.2% Fibo of 113.310-111.760

*RES 1: 112.310 Oct 30, Nov 6, 7 & 8 highs

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 112.260 

*SUP 1: 112.250 Nov 1, Nov 2, Nov 13 lows

*SUP 2: 112.220 Oct 4 high, now support

*SUP 3: 112.190 Hourly basing area Oct 18-19

*SUP 4: 112.150 Oct 25 low

*COMMENTARY* The 112.310 area has become a problem for the recent rally, being

halted here on several occasions now. That said, will need to lose 112.250

support, before there is scope to see some correction of gains from the 112.150

low of Oct 25. This would allow a gradual 112.220-112.190 fall next. A

successful challenge and break of that 112.310 level will target 112.350 next.

GILT TECHS: (Z17) Finds Support Ahead of 124.20 Fibo Level

*RES 4: 125.30 Hourly recovery high Nov 9

*RES 3: 125.04 Nov 9 low, hourly resistance

*RES 2: 124.92 Nov 10 high

*RES 1: 124.72/75 Hourly resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 124.61 

*SUP 1: 124.25/28 Nov 14, Nov 10 lows

*SUP 2: 124.20 Hourly basing area Oct 30-31, 61.8% Fibo

*SUP 3: 123.81/84 76.4% Fibo of 123.17-125.87, Nov 1 low

*SUP 4: 123.67 1% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* Rally reached 125.87 last Wednesday, just shy of a test to the next

resistance area of note at 125.97. This a 50% Fibo retrace level as well as the

upper 1% volatility band at the time. As a result, we have seen a pullback which

has lost 124.95 support. Loss here introduces further caution, especially given

the 'Gravestone Doji' candle close on the daily chart Wednesday. Next supports

of note now 124.20-123.81. Resistance 124.72-124.92.

     SHORT-STERLING TECHS: (H18) 99.400 Proving Tough To Break

*RES 4: 99.500 61.8% Fibo of 99.620-99.300

*RES 3: 99.460 Sep 12 low, 50% Fibo of 99.620-99.300

*RES 2: 99.420 38.2% Fibo of 99.620-99.300

*RES 1: 99.400 Nov 3, Nov 6, Nov 9, Nov 10, Nov 14 highs

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.390                                  

*SUP 1: 99.360 Hourly support

*SUP 2: 99.350 Alternating daily support/resistance

*SUP 3: 99.330 Hourly basing area Oct

*SUP 4: 99.320 Oct 25-26 lows

*COMMENTARY* Has continued the correction of the 99.620-99.300 fall seen

throughout September this year. Got a little stuck around the 99.400 area this

month and while this continues there is scope to see a a pullback. In this

respect, 99.360-99.350 provides initial support. Only below the latter will

concern at present and allow a further 99.330-99.320 fall. Directly above 99.400

and next targets are between 99.420-99.460.

     EURIBOR TECHS: (H18) 100.330 Resistance Still Capping

*RES 4: 100.375 Daily bull channel top

*RES 3: 100.360 Oct 6 high, 76.4% Fibo of 100.420-100.140

*RES 2: 100.330 Oct 19 high

*RES 1: 100.325 Repeated daily highs Sep, Oct & Nov 2017

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.320

*SUP 1: 100.310 Oct 26 low

*SUP 2: 100.300 Alternating daily support/resistance

*SUP 3: 100.280 Jul 24 low

*SUP 4: 100.250 Lows from late June early July

*COMMENTARY* Has spent the last two months trying to break free of

100.325-100.330 resistance. This basically in line with a 61.8% Fibo retrace of

the 100.420-100.140 fall seen in the second half of 2016. That said, support has

also been pretty steady throughout that time, above 100.300. will need a break

of this 100.330-100.300 range before a new direction can be plotted.

     US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (Z17) Decline Edges Towards A Test Of Key 124-155

Support

*RES 4: 125-150/160 Nov 7, Oct 19 highs

*RES 3: 125-080 Series hourly highs Nov 9

*RES 2: 125-015 Nov 9 low, now resistance

*RES 1: 124-290 Nov 13 high

*PRICE: 124-285 @2232GMT

*SUP 1: 124-155/160 Hourly basing area Oct 25-26, Nov 14 low

*SUP 2: 124-060/065 Oct 25, Mar 29 lows

*SUP 3: 123-255 1% volatility band

*SUP 4: 123-235 76.4% Fibo of 122-145/127-285

*COMMENTARY* Unable to sustain a break above the 76.4% Fibo retrace level at

125-135. A high of 125-150 last week and failed to challenge resistance from

between the higher 125-160/125-195 area. The subsequent fall below 125-005 is

the immediate concern, a low of 124-160 so far, with the downside still

protected by the lower 124-155 level. In the meantime, look to 124-290/125-015

for resistance.

     EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: 3582.0-3586.0 Still Keeps Immediate Bias Lower

*RES 4: 3636.0 Nov 8 low, now resistance

*RES 3: 3615.0 Nov 10 high

*RES 2: 3598.0 Nov 13 high

*RES 1: 3586.0 Nov 14 high

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3552.0  

*SUP 1: 3540.0 Nov 13, Nov 14 lows

*SUP 2: 3532.0 50% Fibo of 3361.0-3703.0

*SUP 3: 3512.0 1.618 swing target of 3540.0-3586.0 rise

*SUP 4: 3493.0 Sep 15 low

*COMMENTARY* Another fall on Tuesday which once again tested support from the

previous day's 3540.0 low, this just ahead of Fibo support at 3532.0. There had

been an intervening rally, which failed to maintain a break back above

3582.0-3583.0 resistance, giving up the ghost at 3586.0. A sustained break back

above here would have the capacity to suggest a correction of losses from the

month's 3703.0 high is underway. 

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]