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MNI European Morning Briefing

MNI (London)
     LONDON (MNI) - Its a busy calendar on both sides of the Atlantic Thursday,
with the ECB's policy decision likely to be the standout event of the day.
     The European data calendar kicks off at 0600GMT, with the release of the
German industrial production data.
     At 0645GMT, the French foreign trade and current account data will be
published.
     At 0730GMT, the UK Halifax House Price Index will be published.
     With minimal signs of current trends abating, UK house prices in August is
predicted to come in broadly unchanged from the levels set in July. On the
month, house prices are expected to grow 0.3% m/m, 0.1pp lower than in July,
while annual growth is expected to come in at 2.4% 3m y/y, up from 2.1% 3m y/y
in July.
     House prices were broadly flat in July, as they have been for much of the
year, with squeezed real wages, the implementation of higher stamp duty charges
and general economic and political uncertainty all contributing to weaker house
activity.
     The Riksbank will announce their latest policy decision at the same time,
with an expectation they keep policy unchanged, but alongside a mildly hawkish
statement.
     In the UK, at 0830GMT, Brexit Secretary David Davis will take departmental
questions in the Commons. Later, Davis will start the2nd reading debate on the
EU Withdrawal bill.
     Eurostat will release the updated EMU GDP data at 0900GMT, before the OECD
Leading Indicator is published at 1000GMT.
     The ECB will announce their policy decision at 1145GMT, before President
Mario Draghi holds a press conference at 1230GMT.
     Across the Atlantic, the main US data is set for release at 1230GMT, when
the Jobless Claims and Non-Farm Productivity.
     The level of initial jobless claims is expected to rise by 12,000 to
248,000 in the August 26 week after a 1,000 increase in the previous week,
possibly reflecting filings in the hurricane-affected regions. The four-week
moving average, which has declined for five straight weeks, would rise by 1,000
in the coming week as the 244,000 level in the August 5 week drops out of the
calculation, assuming the MNI forecast is correct and there are no revisions.
     Nonfarm productivity is expected to be revised up to a 1.4% rate of growth
in the second quarter, as the output component should be revised up based on the
GDP data. Unit labor costs are expected to be revised down to a 0.3% rate.
     Canadian building permits will be released at the same time.
     At 1400GMT, the US services revenues data and the IBD/TIPP Optimism Index
will cross the wires. The Canadian IVEY PMI data will be published at the same
time.
     Following Monday's US holiday, both the Natural Gas Stocks and the DOE
weekly crude oil stocks will be released, at 1400 and 1430GMT respectively.
     Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Loretta Mester will speak about
economic outlook and monetary policy at an event held by the Economic Club of
Pittsburgh, World Affairs Council of Pittsburgh, CFA Society Pittsburgh, and
Pittsburgh Association for Financial Professionals in Pittsburgh, with audience
and media Q&A, starting at 1615GMT..
     Late US data will see the Fed publish their Weekly M2 Money Supply Data at
2030GMT.
--MNI London Bureau; tel: +44 203-586-2225; email: les.commons@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3812 | les.commons@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3812 | les.commons@marketnews.com

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