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MNI European Morning Briefing

MNI (London)
     LONDON (MNI) - The European calendar gets underway Tuesday, with the
release of the French non-farm payrolls data at 0530GMT.
     There is a raft of UK data expected at 0830GMT, when the August consumer
and producer inflation data will be released.
     July extended the pause in the rapid rise in prices witnessed since the
UK's vote last year to leave the European Union, when CPI inflation and core
inflation both held firm at 2.6% and 2.4%.
     The driving force behind the July outturn was a fall in fuel prices, down
1.3% between June and July, offset by upward pressure from other categories like
food and household goods.
     A month later and fuel prices will have exerted the opposite effect, having
increased some 1.6% between July and August. With pump prices down 1.4% during
the same period a year ago, it is certain that this category will apply upward
pressure to both CPI and RPI.
     Supplementing this, most suspect the pass through from the weaker currency
still has legs and could translate to higher prices, especially as the cost of
imported materials remains elevated.
     With a rise in CPI Inflation seemingly a dead cert, the only question is by
how much it climbs higher.
     Input price inflation has stabilised somewhat in the last few months,
falling back to 6.5% in July having peaked at 19.9% earlier this year, as the
impact of the weakened sterling has gradually dissipated away.
     In August, however, the stabilisation may have suffered a temporary
setback, courtesy of a higher oil and commodity (in particular, metal) prices.
     Oil prices were rose 6% between July and August with the price of a barrel
up to stg40 from stg38 a month before. Metal prices, meanwhile, were up for the
third consecutive month in August.
     After falling sharply form 10% in June to 6.5% in July, analysts see the
rate edging back up 7.6% in August. This rise in input prices is likely to be
consistent with a marginal rise in output prices. Factory gate prices are
expected to come in up 0.2% m/m for a 3.1% change on the year.
     The US calendar gets underway at 1100GMT, with the release of the NFIB
Small Business Optimism Index.
     At 1255GMT, the latest Redbook Retail Sales Index will cross the wires. The
latest JOLTS data will be published at 1400GMT.
     Back in the UK, at 1435GMT, Chancellor of the Exchequer Philip Hammond will
take questions from the House of Lords Economic Affairs Committee.
--MNI London Bureau; tel: +44 203-586-2225; email: les.commons@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3812 | les.commons@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3812 | les.commons@marketnews.com

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