MNI European Morning Briefing

     LONDON (MNI) - Thursday throws up a full data calendar, with the ECB's

policy decision and press conference set to be the stand out highlight of the

day.

     The European calendar gets underway at 0700GMT, with the publication of the

German GFK consumer climate indicator and the latest German construction output

data.

     At 0900GMT, the January IfO index will be released.

     Also expected at 0900GMT are the November Italian industrial orders data.

     At 0930GMT, the UK December mortgage lending data from UK Finance will be

released, followed by the CBI Distributive Trade survey at 1100GMT.

     The ECB policy decision is expected at 1245GMT, followed by President Mario

Draghi's press conference at 1330GMT.

     The ECB are expected to keep policy on hold, but focus will be on the press

conference, to see whether Draghi gives any hints as to when guidance may

change.

     Across the Atlantic, the US calendar kicks off at 1330GMTG, with the

release of this week's Jobless Claims data.

     The level of initial jobless claims is expected to rebound by 25,000 to

245,000 in the January 20 week after a surprise 41,000 decline in the previous

week to a 45-year low level. The four-week moving average would slide by 500 in

the coming week, as the 247,000 level in the December 23 week drops out of the

calculation, assuming the MNI forecast is correct and there are no revisions.

     Canadian retail sales and payroll employment numbers will be released at

the same time.

     Back in Europe, at 1400GMT, the BNB Business Sentiment Index will be

released.

     There is a string of US data set for release at 1500GMT, including now home

sales, building permit revisions and leading indicators.

     New home sales are expected to fall to a 679,000 annual rate in December

following a sharp increase in November. Unadjusted sales were up 30.0% from a

year earlier. Home supply was flat in November, so the months supply dipped to

4.6 months. Even so, there should be adequate homes available for sale when

demand returns.

     The index of leading indicators is forecast to rise by 0.5% in December.

Positive contributions are expected from the ISM new orders index and a surge in

stock prices. Softer consumer expectations will provide some offset.

     At 1530GMT, the latest Natural Gas Stocks data will be published, followed

by the Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index at 1600GMT.

     Late US sees the Fed's Weekly M2 Money Supply Data set for release at

2130GMT.

--MNI London Bureau; tel: +44 203-586-2225; email: les.commons@marketnews.com