MNI European Morning Commodities Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

     Click below for today's MNI European Commodities Technical Analysis report

- https://tinyurl.com/qcogf49

     ICE BRENT: (F18) Fall Heads For Next Key $61.10-$60.92 Area

*RES 4: $63.88 Hourly base Nov 10, now resistance

*RES 3: $63.35 Nov 10 low, now resistance

*RES 2: $62.95 Nov 8 low, now resistance

*RES 1: $62.61 Nov 13 low, now resistance

*PRICE: $61.42 @0148GMT                                    

*SUP 1: $61.10/21 76.4% of $60.00-$64.65, Nov 14 low

*SUP 2: $60.92 38.2% Fibo of $54.85-$64.65

*SUP 3: $60.60 Nov 3 low

*SUP 4: $60.00 Nov 1 low

*COMMENTARY: The break below $62.95 has seen the decline continue, a low of

$61.21 on Tuesday, as we head towards the next key near term support area

between $61.10-$60.92. Below the latter would continue to suggest we have likely

seen a 5 wave rise complete since the early Oct low at $54.85. In the interim,

resistance now comes from a series of previous lows between $62.61-$63.35 but

requires a move above $63.88 to suggest the fall is over.

     ICE GASOIL: (Z17) Decline Heads For Test Of $550.45-$545.60

*RES 4: $567.00 Nov 13 high

*RES 3: $564.50 Nov 14 high

*RES 2: $560.50 Initial low Nov 14, now resistance

*RES 1: $558.00 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $550.75 @0200GMT                                   

*SUP 1: $550.45 61.8% Fibo of $537.75-$571.00

*SUP 2: $545.60 38.2% Fibo of $506.00-$571.00

*SUP 3: $542.00 Sep 26 high, now support

*SUP 4: $537.75 Nov 1 low, 50% Fibo of $506.00-$571.00

*COMMENTARY: The $571.00 area proved difficult to break above this month and

near term focus then switched to $561.00 support. The subsequent loss of this

level on Tuesday suggests we are ready for a deeper correction of the gains seen

since the Nov 2 low at $537.75. With the further loss of $557.75, next questions

are asked at $550.45 and then more importantly $545.60. Nearest resistance now

$558.00-$560.50.

     NYMEX HO: (Z17) Fall Continues After $1.9048 Gives Way

*RES 4: $1.9441 Nov 13 high

*RES 3: $1.9277 Nov 10 low, now resistance

*RES 2: $1.9217 Nov 13 low, now resistance

*RES 1: $1.9109 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.9070 @0215GMT                                   

*SUP 1: $1.8830 Nov 14 low

*SUP 2: $1.8666 76.4% Fibo of $1.8408-$1.9561

*SUP 3: $1.8407/08 Sep 27 high, Nov 2 low

*SUP 4: $1.8389 50% Fibo of $1.7217-$1.9561

*COMMENTARY: The rally faltered at $1.9561 last week, suggesting that we may be

close to completing a 5 wave rise since the mid June low at $1.4154. The

subsequent loss of the Nov 9 low at $1.9178 was the initial concern, then the

Nov 8 low at $1.9048 the next. A low of $1.8830 so far, before some near term

oversold conditions prefaced a bounce. In this respect $1.9109-$1.9277 provides

resistance. Below $1.8830 and look to $1.8666-$1.8407 next.

     NYMEX RBOB: (Z17) Monday's $1.8070 Loss Swings Bias Lower

*RES 4: $1.8007 Hourly High Nov 13

*RES 3: $1.7854 Nov 13 low, now resistance

*RES 2: $1.7745 Hourly base Nov 14, now resistance

*RES 1: $1.7658 Hourly recovery high Nov 14

*PRICE: $1.7375 @0225GMT                                   

*SUP 1: $1.7207 38.2% Fibo of $1.5275-$1.8402

*SUP 2: $1.7010 Oct 30 lowlow

*SUP 3: $1.6839/43 50% Fibo of $1.5275-$1.8402, Oct 27 low

*SUP 4: $1.6503 Sep 26 high, now support

*COMMENTARY: A high of $1.8402 last week before succumbing to some overbought

conditions. The subsequent pullback lost key support from $1.8070 on Monday,

below which disturbs recent upside momentum. Loss would suggest that we are

ready for some correction, possibly of the gains accrued since the Oct 9 low at

$1.5275. A low of $1.7296 so far, with $1.7207-$1.6839 the next downside

supports. Meanwhile, resistance comes from $1.7658-$1.7854.

     NYMEX WTI: (Z17) Correction Risk Continues

*RES 4: $57.15 Nov 13 high

*RES 3: $56.75 Congestion area Nov 8-9, Nov 10-13

*RES 2: $56.30 Nov 13 low, now resistance

*RES 1: $55.79 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $55.07 @0235GMT                                   

*SUP 1: $54.68 38.2% Fibo of $49.44-$57.92

*SUP 2: $53.89 Nov 1 low

*SUP 3: $53.68 50% Fibo of $49.44-$57.92

*SUP 4: $53.11 Sep 28 high, now support

*COMMENTARY: Still suffering as a result of the bearish outside day last

Wednesday. In this respect, the loss of firstly $56.51 support and then the Nov

8 low at $56.41 has increased the risk for a downside correction. A low of

$54.81 so far, as we head toward next $54.68-$53.89 supports. In the meantime,

$55.79-$57.15 provides near term resistance against any recovery.

     GOLD TECHS: Brief Loss Of $1271.8 Support Is Quickly Reversed

*RES 4: $1296.1 76.4% Fibo of $1306.1-$1263.8

*RES 3: $1291.5 Oct 18 high

*RES 2: $1289.9 61.8% Fibo of $1306.1-$1263.8

*RES 1: $1284.3 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1282.0 @0240GMT

*SUP 1: $1273.5 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1269.9 Nov 14 low

*SUP 3: $1265.5 Nov 3 low

*SUP 4: $1263.8 Oct 27 low

*COMMENTARY* The move below the key $1271.8 support was brief and quickly

reversed on Tuesday. Now looking at $1284.3 for resistance, as we move back up

the recent range. Through here and then the $1289.9 Fibo level once again

becomes the marker to cross, before the upside is released to make further

inroads into the losses sustained since last month's $1306.1 high. Meanwhile,

$1273.5 support should hold any setbacks or caution advised again.

     SILVER TECHS: Key Support Remains From The $16.610-$16.604 Area

*RES 4: $17.274 76.4% Fibo of $17.479-$16.610

*RES 3: $17.266 Nov 6 high

*RES 2: $17.152 Hourly high Oct 30

*RES 1: $17.105 Nov 10 high

*PRICE: $17.045 @0245GMT                                   

*SUP 1: $16.926 Hourly support 

*SUP 2: $16.782 Nov 3 low

*SUP 3: $16.610 Oct 27 low

*SUP 4: $16.604 76.4% Fibo of $16.334-$17.479

*COMMENTARY: The recent consolidation over the course of the last month,

highlights the prominence of the 76.4% Fibo retrace level, on occasions such as

these. In the bigger picture, we now await a break out of the $17.274-$16.604

range, before we can acquire any sense of direction. Within the range

$17.105-$17.152 provides resistance and $16.926-$16.782 support.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com