MNI European Morning FI Technical Analysis

6 September 2017

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts

BUND TECHS: (Z17) Immediate Focus On Channel Top

*RES 4: 164.50 Low June 8 now resistance

*RES 3: 163.89 Low June 1 now resistance

*RES 2: 163.21 Daily Bull channel top A

*RES 1: 162.93 High Aug Sept 5

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 162.87

*SUP 1: 162.71 Hourly resistance Sept 5 now support

*SUP 2: 162.47 Hourly resistance Sept 5a now support

*SUP 3: 161.96 Low Sept 5

*SUP 4: 161.66 Low Sept 1

*COMMENTARY: The rally Tuesday sees bulls regain the upper hand and reconfirm a

bullish bias with initial focus on the daily bull channel top. A close above

then targets 163.89-164.50. The Bollinger top (162.84) is the key concern for

bulls and currently limits follow through. Layers of support are building. Bears

now need a close below 162.47 to ease bullish pressure and below 161.66 to end

bullish hopes and shift focus back to 160.30-50 where 55 & 100-DMAs are noted.

BOBL TECHS: (Z17) Immediate Focus On Channel Top

*RES 4: 132.24 Low May 23 now resistance 

*RES 3: 132.07 Low May 16 now resistance 

*RES 2: 131.95 Daily Bull channel top A 

*RES 1: 131.87 High Sept 5

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 131.83

*SUP 1: 131.77 Hourly resistance Sept 5 now support

*SUP 2: 131.65 Hourly support Sept 5

*SUP 3: 131.53 Low Sept 5, Daily bull channel base B

*SUP 4: 131.42 Low Sept 1

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from last week's low resulted in an aggressive rally

and bullish close Tuesday that reconfirmed the bullish bias and initial focus on

the channel top. Initial support is noted at 131.77 but bears look for a close

below 131.65 to confirm an easing of bullish pressure and a shift in focus to

131.27-42. Bulls now need a close above the daily bull channel top to initially

target 132.07-24. The Bollinger top (131.83) is the key concern for bulls.

SCHATZ TECHS: (Z17) Immediate Focus On 112.305

*RES 4: 112.440 Low Feb 28 now resistance 

*RES 3: 112.410 Highs Mar 7 & 8 

*RES 2: 112.305 Low Mar 7 now resistance 

*RES 1: 112.260 High Sept 5

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 112.260

*SUP 1: 112.250 Hourly support Sept 5 

*SUP 2: 112.230 Breakout level Sept 5 

*SUP 3: 112.210 Hourly support Sept 5a 

*SUP 4: 112.195 Low Sept 5

*COMMENTARY: Bulls continue to dominate with the Bollinger top (112.234) the key

concern. Immediate bullish focus has shifted to 112.305 and then 112.410-440 on

a close above. Layers of support add to the bullish case. Bears now look for a

close below 112.230 to ease bullish pressure and below 112.175 to shift initial

pressure back to 112.090-135 where the 21-DMA (112.096) is situated. Below

112.090 is needed to end bullish hopes and target 111.945-112.015.

GILT TECHS: (Z17) Bollinger Band Top Capping

*RES 4: 128.68 High June 21 

*RES 3: 128.11 Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 2: 127.83 High Aug 29 

*RES 1: 127.72 High Sept 5, Bollinger band top

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 127.50

*SUP 1: 127.44 High Sept 1 now support 

*SUP 2: 127.24 Hourly support Sept 5 

*SUP 3: 126.85 21-DMA 

*SUP 4: 126.80 Low Aug 24

*COMMENTARY: Having looked heavy and pressuring the 21-DMA, bulls take comfort

in the aggressive rally Tuesday that see focus back on the 127.83 resistance.

The Bollinger band top is the key concern for bulls and currently caps. Bears

look for a close below 127.24 to ease pressure on resistance layers and return

pressure to 126.80-85. Below 126.80 is needed to shift focus back to

125.94-126.25.

SHORT-STERLING TECHS: (Z17) Bulls Focused On 99.690-721

*RES 4: 99.721 Daily Bull channel top

*RES 3: 99.690 2017 Highs June 12 & 13

*RES 2: 99.670 High Sept 5

*RES 1: 99.660 Bollinger band top

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.660

*SUP 1: 99.642 21-DMA & Bull channel base

*SUP 2: 99.640 Low Sept 5

*SUP 3: 99.630 Repeated Daily Lows Aug

*SUP 4: 99.624 Bollinger band base

*COMMENTARY: The contract continues to find support on dips back towards the

daily bull channel base and 21-DMA with the bounce Tuesday resulting in fresh

2mth highs and adding support to the case for a test of 99.690-721 where 2017

highs are situated. Bears continue to look for a close below 99.630 to ease

bullish pressure and shift immediate focus to 99.588-610 where 55 & 100-DMAs are

located.

EURIBOR TECHS: (H18) Bears Need Close Below 100.300

*RES 4: 100.360 - High Oct 6 

*RES 3: 100.330 - High Oct 19 

*RES 2: 100.325 - 2017 High Sept 5 

*RES 1: 100.321 - Bollinger band top

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.320

*SUP 1: 100.310 - 21-DMA

*SUP 2: 100.300 - Low Aug 11 - 16

*SUP 3: 100.290 - 55-DMA

*SUP 4: 100.285 - Repeated daily lows July & Aug

*COMMENTARY: The contract remains supported ahead of the 21-DMA as it has for

most of August with fresh 2017 highs seen Tuesday. Bulls remain focused on the

100.330-413 resistance region where the bull channel top is located. The

Bollinger top remains the key concern for bulls and limits follow through. Bears

continue to look for a close below 100.300 to ease bullish pressure and below

100.285 to signal a correction that initially targets the 100-DMA (100.278).

US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (Z17) Bulls Focused On 127-270

*RES 4: 130-140 - High Nov 9 

*RES 3: 128-220 - Low Oct 28 now resistance 

*RES 2: 127-270 - High Nov 10 

*RES 1: 127-180 - Hourly resistance Sept 6

*PRICE: 127-140 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 127-070 - High Sept 1 now support

*SUP 2: 126-300 - High Sept 4 now support

*SUP 3: 126-240 - Low Sept 5

*SUP 4: 126-190 - Low Sept 1

*COMMENTARY: Support emerging on a dip back towards the key 126-190 support

Tuesday produced a rally and bullish close with a pop above the daily bull

channel top (127-170) and 100-WMA (127-150) today. The Bollinger top is the key

concern for bulls and currently limits topside follow through. Bulls now focus

on 127-270. Bears need a close below 127-070 to gain breathing room and below

126-300 to shift focus back to 126-190.

US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Pressuring 100-WMA

*RES 4: 2.166 - Hourly resistance Aug 31 

*RES 3: 2.148 - High Sept 5 

*RES 2: 2.115 - Hourly resistance Sept 5a 

*RES 1: 2.093 - Hourly resistance Sept 5

*PRICE: 2.072 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 2.054 - 100-WMA, 2017 Low Sept 6 

*SUP 2: 1.991 - Low Nov 10 

*SUP 3: 1.879 - High Nov 1 now support 

*SUP 4: 1.716 - Monthly Low Nov 9

*COMMENTARY: The topside failure ahead of 2.180 has resulted in a sell-off and

fresh 2017 & 10mth lows that see immediate pressure on the 100-WMA. Bears look

for a close below the 100-WMA to add weight to the case for a test of

1.879-1.991. The Bollinger base (2.089) and modestly O/S studies are concerns

for bears. In saying that, bulls now need a close above 2.115 to gain breathing

room and above 2.180 to shift initial focus back to 2.206-2.229.

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: Pressure Firmly On 3412.26 

*RES 4: 3473.46 55-DMA 

*RES 3: 3467.78 High Aug 23 

*RES 2: 3454.45 High Sept 1 

*RES 1: 3438.41 Alternating hourly support/resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3420.86

*SUP 1: 3412.26 High Aug 30 now support 

*SUP 2: 3395.03 Hourly resistance Aug 29 now support 

*SUP 3: 3373.52 Hourly support Aug 29 

*SUP 4: 3363.68 Low Aug 29

*COMMENTARY: The index remains a little heavy as topside follow through lacks,

with pressure firmly on the 3412.26 support. Bears look for a close below

3412.26 to return focus to the bear channel base 3335.62. Layers of resistance

remain 3454.55-3539.48. Bulls now need a close above the 55-DMA to confirm focus

on 3497.29-3539.48 where the 100-DMA (3518.97) is located and above this region

to target 2017 highs.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]