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MNI European Morning FI Technical Analysis

25 September 2017
By Kyle Shortland
Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis
Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts
BUND TECHS: (Z17) 160.50 Support Key This Week
*RES 4: 161.82 High Sept 15
*RES 3: 161.51 Hourly resistance Sept 15
*RES 2: 161.42 High Sept 18
*RES 1: 161.26 High Sept 22
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 161.14
*SUP 1: 160.88 Low Sept 22
*SUP 2: 160.73 55-DMA
*SUP 3: 160.66 Low Sept 21
*SUP 4: 160.64 100-DMA
*COMMENTARY: The correction from 163.43 has seen the contract pressure 55 &
100-DMAs before bouncing a little Thursday. Bears need a close below 160.50 to
confirm a break of key DMAs, ending bullish hopes and hinting at a test of 2017
lows with below 159.58 confirming. The Bolli base (160.66) is the key concern
for bears. Bulls still need a close above 161.51 to ease bearish pressure and
above 162.15 to shift focus back to 162.89-163.43.
BOBL TECHS: (Z17) 55-DMA Supporting
*RES 4: 131.32 Low Sept 14 now resistance 
*RES 3: 131.27 High Sept 20 
*RES 2: 131.20 Hourly support Sept 20a now resistance 
*RES 1: 131.16 High Sept 22
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 131.09
*SUP 1: 131.05 Hourly support Sept 21
*SUP 2: 130.96 55-DMA
*SUP 3: 130.90 Low Aug 16
*SUP 4: 130.68 Low Aug 3
*COMMENTARY: The sell-off from 131.98 is finding support at the 55-DMA and ahead
of the key 130.90 support. Bears continue to look for a close below 130.90 to
confirm a break of the 55-DMA, ending bullish hopes and shifting immediate focus
to 130.53-68. O/S studies and the Bollinger base (130.99) are key concerns for
bears. Bulls need a close above 131.20 to gain breathing room and above 131.32
to shift focus to 131.48-64.
SCHATZ TECHS: (Z17) Increased Risk Of Bounce To 112.145-170
*RES 4: 112.205 High Sept 14 
*RES 3: 112.169 21-DMA 
*RES 2: 112.145 High Sept 19 
*RES 1: 112.115 High Sept 21
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 112.110
*SUP 1: 112.085 Low Sept 22 
*SUP 2: 112.071 Bollinger band base 
*SUP 3: 112.065 Low Sept 21 
*SUP 4: 112.028 55-DMA
*COMMENTARY: The lack of follow through Wed-Fri courtesy of the Bollinger band
base is a concern for bears and increases the risk of a correction back to
112.145-170. Bulls now need a close above 112.115 to ease immediate bearish
pressure and above the 21-DMA to shift focus back to 112.259-285 where the
100-DMA and Sept highs are noted. Overall bears need a close below 112.015 to
confirm a break of the 55-DMA and initially target 111.945.
GILT TECHS: (Z17) Above 125.21 To Target 125.87-126.21
*RES 4: 124.91 Low Sept 14 now resistance 
*RES 3: 124.65 High Sept 19 
*RES 2: 124.36 High Sept 20 
*RES 1: 124.10 High Sept 22
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 123.80
*SUP 1: 123.65 Low Sept 22 
*SUP 2: 123.36 Low Sept 21 
*SUP 3: 123.17 Low Feb 2 
*SUP 4: 122.60 2017 Low Jan 26
*COMMENTARY: Losses continued last week following the failure to retake the
124.65-125.21 resistance region with current bearish focus on 122.60-123.17.
Very O/S daily studies looking to correct remain the key concern for bears.
Layers of resistance are building with bulls needing a close above 124.10 to
gain breathing room and above 125.21 to shift focus back to 125.87-126.37 where
21, 55 & 100-DMAs are situated.
SHORT-STERLING TECHS: (H18) 99.230 Support Now Key
*RES 4: 99.450 Low Sept 13 now resistance
*RES 3: 99.410 High Sept 15
*RES 2: 99.390 Monthly Lows June 30 now resistance
*RES 1: 99.360 Highs Sept 18 & 19
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.340
*SUP 1: 99.310 Low Sept 20
*SUP 2: 99.230 High June 21 2016 now support
*SUP 3: 99.110 Monthly Low June 23 2016
*SUP 4: 99.040 Monthly Low May 31 2016
*COMMENTARY: Losses continued for H18 last week with bearish focus on 99.230
with a close below needed to target 98.980-99.040 where Apr & May 2016 lows are
situated. Very O/S studies remain the key concern for bears. Initial resistance
is still noted at 99.360 with bulls needing a close above to gain breathing
room. A close above 99.410 shifts focus back to the 200-DMA (99.509).
EURIBOR TECHS: (H18) Below 55-DMA To Pressure 100-DMA
*RES 4: 100.330 - High Oct 19 
*RES 3: 100.325 - 2017 High Sept 5-8 
*RES 2: 100.320 - Repeated Daily highs 
*RES 1: 100.313 - 21-DMA
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.305
*SUP 1: 100.305 - Repeated daily lows Aug
*SUP 2: 100.300 - Alternating daily support/resistance, 55-DMA
*SUP 3: 100.287 - 100-DMA
*SUP 4: 100.285 - Repeated daily lows
*COMMENTARY: Topside hesitation ahead of recent 2017 highs took its toll with a
close below 100.310 that confirmed an easing of bullish pressure and sees focus
on the 55-DMA. Bears look for a close below the 55-DMA to initially pressure the
100-DMA and below 100.275 to shift focus to the 200-DMA (100.257). Bulls need a
close above the 21-DMA to return initial focus to 100.320-325. The Bollinger
base (100.302) is the key concern for bears.
US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (Z17) Bears Focused On July Low
*RES 4: 126-090 - High Sept 18, 55-WMA 
*RES 3: 126-030 - 55-DMA 
*RES 2: 125-300 - Low Sept 19 now resistance 
*RES 1: 125-270 - 100-DMA
*PRICE: 125-250 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: 125-170 - Low Aug 8 & Sept 20
*SUP 2: 125-040 - Low July 26 
*SUP 3: 124-280 - Low July 12
*SUP 4: 124-140 - Monthly Low July 6
*COMMENTARY: The sell-off from 127-280 resulted in closes below the 100-DMA &
55-WMA with immediate bearish focus on the 125-170 support and overall focus on
124-140 July lows. O/S daily studies and the Bollinger base (125-120) remain key
concerns for bears. In saying that, layers of resistance remain with bulls still
needing a close above 125-300 to ease bearish pressure and above 126-090 to hint
at a correction to 126-270.
US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 2.208-239 Support Key
*RES 4: 2.330 - 200-DMA 
*RES 3: 2.290 - High Aug 4 
*RES 2: 2.287 - High Sept 20 
*RES 1: 2.266 - Hourly support Sept 20 now resistance
*PRICE: 2.253 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: 2.239 - Low Sept 22 
*SUP 2: 2.222 - Low Sept 19 
*SUP 3: 2.208 - Low Sept 18 
*SUP 4: 2.171 - Hourly resistance Sept 13 now support
*COMMENTARY: The closes above 55 (2.227) & 100 (2.237) DMAs adds to bullish
confidence with immediate focus now on 2.290. Bulls need a close above to
confirm immediate focus on 2.330-337 where the 200-DMA and daily highs are
located. O/B studies and the Bollinger top (2.307) are key concerns for bulls.
Layers of support are accumulating with bears needing a close below 2.239 to
ease bullish pressure and below 2.208 to shift focus lower.
EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: Above 3555.37 To Focus On 3615.06 
*RES 4: 3581.43 High June 26 
*RES 3: 3574.63 Bollinger band top 
*RES 2: 3555.37 High June 29 
*RES 1: 3553.08 High Sept 22
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3541.42
*SUP 1: 3532.39 Hourly support Sept 21 
*SUP 2: 3520.72 Low Sept 20 
*SUP 3: 3506.61 Low Sept 13 
*SUP 4: 3497.29 High Aug 16 now support
*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of 3539.48 came to an end Thursday with bulls
looking for a close above 3555.37 to confirm initial focus on 3615.06 and
overall focus on 2017 highs. Momentum divergence and O/B studies remain the key
concern for bulls. Support layers remain in place with bears needing a close
below 3532.39 to gain breathing room and below 3497.29 to shift initial focus
back to 3443.01-3473.24 where key DMAs are clustered.
--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]

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