MNI European Morning FI Technical Analysis

2 November 2017

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts

BUND TECHS: (Z17) 162.23 Support Remains Key

*RES 4: 163.43 Monthly high Sept 8

*RES 3: 163.14 100-WMA

*RES 2: 162.89 Low Sept 11 now resistance

*RES 1: 162.83 High Oct 31

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 162.49

*SUP 1: 162.44 Low Oct 31

*SUP 2: 162.23 Hourly resistance Oct 27 now support

*SUP 3: 161.85 Hourly support Oct 27 

*SUP 4: 161.63 Low Oct 27

*COMMENTARY: Topside hesitation continues which is less than ideal for bulls who

focus on 162.89-163.14. Bulls need a close above the 100-WMA to hint at a move

to 2017 highs (166.40) and above 163.43 Sept highs to confirm. Bears continue to

look for a close below 162.23 to ease bullish pressure and below 161.63 to shift

focus to 160.59-161.04 where the bull channel base is found. The Bollinger top

(162.99) is a concern for bulls with potential to limit follow through.

BOBL TECHS: (Z17) Below 131.57 To Confirm Correction

*RES 4: 132.005 100-WMA 

*RES 3: 131.980 Monthly High Sept 8 

*RES 2: 131.876 55-WMA 

*RES 1: 131.850 High Oct 27

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 131.720

*SUP 1: 131.680 Low Oct 31

*SUP 2: 131.570 Hourly support Oct 27

*SUP 3: 131.470 High Oct 23 now support

*SUP 4: 131.290 Hourly resistance Oct 24 now support

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of last week's high remains a concern with the

lack of topside follow through increasing the risk of a correction back to

131.290-470 where 21 (131.450) & 55 (131.417) DMAs are situated. Bears still

need a close below 131.57 to ease bullish pressure and shift focus to 131.29-47.

Bulls continue to look for a close above 131.85 to reconfirm the bullish bias

and maintain focus on 55 & 100-WMAs.

SCHATZ TECHS: (Z17) Below 112.230 To Shift Focus Lower

*RES 4: 112.427 Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 3: 112.365 Monthly high Sept 5 (Cont) 

*RES 2: 112.315 High Oct 27 

*RES 1: 112.280 High Nov 1

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 112.265

*SUP 1: 112.240 Low Oct 27 

*SUP 2: 112.230 High Oct 19 now support 

*SUP 3: 112.200 Alternating hourly support/resistance 

*SUP 4: 112.170 55-DMA, Bull channel base

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of 2 week highs is a concern with the close below

112.270 easing immediate bullish pressure and seeing focus back on 112.230-240.

Bears look for a close below 112.230 to shift initial focus to 112.170-200 where

the 21-DMA and bull channel base are found. Overall below the 55-DMA and channel

base is needed to shift focus to 112.051-105 where the 100-DMA is noted. Bulls

need a close above 112.315 to confirm focus on 112.365-455.

GILT TECHS: (Z17) 123.71 Support Remains Key

*RES 4: 125.00 High Oct 19 

*RES 3: 124.88 Bollinger band top 

*RES 2: 124.75 High Oct 20 

*RES 1: 124.54 High Oct 31

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 124.18

*SUP 1: 124.08 Hourly resistance Nov 1 now support 

*SUP 2: 123.84 Low Nov 1 

*SUP 3: 123.71 Hourly support Oct 27 

*SUP 4: 123.44 Low Oct 26

*COMMENTARY: Bulls took comfort in the break of the daily bear channel top and

21-DMA (124.12) that saw focus shift to layers of resistance 124.75-125.41 where

55 & 100-DMAs and the 100-WMA (125.33) are situated. Bulls need a close above

the 100-DMA (125.41) to open up for a move back to 126.67-80. Initial support is

noted 124.08 but bears look for a close below 123.71 to return focus to

123.12-44.

SHORT-STERLING TECHS: (H18) Looking A Little Heavy

*RES 4: 99.410 High Sept 15

*RES 3: 99.400 High Oct 20

*RES 2: 99.370 Hourly resistance Oct 23

*RES 1: 99.350 Lows Oct 23 & 24 now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.320

*SUP 1: 99.310 Low Nov 1

*SUP 2: 99.300 2017 Low Oct 17

*SUP 3: 99.230 High June 21 2016 now support

*SUP 4: 99.110 Monthly Low June 23 2016

*COMMENTARY: The contract struggled last week with focus returning to the

99.300-320 support region. Bears continue to look for a close below 2017 lows

(99.300) to shift focus to 99.110-230. Very narrowed Bollinger bands

(98.313-99.365) remain suggestive of a breakout. Bulls need a close above 99.370

to see pressure back on 99.400-410 and above 99.410 to shift focus to

99.435-450.

EURIBOR TECHS: (H18) Pressuring Key Resistance

*RES 4: 100.371 - Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 3: 100.360 - High Oct 6 

*RES 2: 100.330 - High Oct 19 

*RES 1: 100.325 - 2017 Repeated Daily Highs Sept, Oct & Nov

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.325

*SUP 1: 100.320 - Alternating daily support/resistance

*SUP 2: 100.310 - Low Oct 26

*SUP 3: 100.305 - Repeated Daily Lows Oct

*SUP 4: 100.300 - Alternating daily sup/res, Channel base

*COMMENTARY: The dip below the 21 (100.315) & 55 (100.313) DMAs last week lacked

follow through with the contract recovering to repeatedly retest 2017 highs.

Bulls need a close above 100.330 to target 100.360/371. Bears look for a close

below 100.310 to confirm breaks of 21 & 55-DMAs and ease bullish pressure. Below

the 100-DMA (100.299) is needed to end bullish hopes and shift focus back to

100.275-285.

US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (Z17) 124-23 & 125-04+ Levels Now Key

*RES 4: 125-26+ 55-DMA 

*RES 3: 125-25+ High Oct 13, 100-DMA 

*RES 2: 125-16+ Hourly support Oct 16 now resistance 

*RES 1: 125-04  High Nov 1

*PRICE: 125-01+ @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 124-28+ Hourly support Nov 1

*SUP 2: 124-23  Low Oct 30 now resistance

*SUP 3: 124-15  Hourly resistance Oct 26 now support

*SUP 4: 124-06  Low Oct 25

*COMMENTARY: Bears take comfort in the failure to gain traction on marginal

breaks of the 21-DMA (125-01+). Bears continue to look for a close below 124-23

to gain breathing room and reconfirm immediate focus on the 124-00+/06 support

region where the rising weekly TL off 2017 Lows is noted. Bulls now need a close

above 125-04 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and shift focus to 125-16+/26+

where 55 & 100-DMAs are noted.

US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 2.349 Support Key Today

*RES 4: 2.434 - Hourly resistance Oct 27 

*RES 3: 2.419 - Hourly support Oct 27 now resistance 

*RES 2: 2.401 - High Nov 1 

*RES 1: 2.385 - Hourly support Nov 1 now resistance

*PRICE: 2.363 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 2.349 - Low Nov 1 

*SUP 2: 2.314 - 200-DMA 

*SUP 3: 2.278 - Low Oct 16 

*SUP 4: 2.262 - 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The break of the 21-DMA (2.361) and the 2.352 support have so far

lacked follow through. Resistance layers accumulating adds weight to the bearish

case with a close below 2.349 now needed to shift immediate focus to the 200-DMA

and overall focus back to 2.245-2.278 where 55 & 100-DMAs are located. The 2.419

resistance remains key with bulls needing a close above to return initial focus

to 2.477 and overall focus to 2.544-580.

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: Immediate Focus Remains On Channel Top 

*RES 4: 3786.36 Low Apr 15 2015 now resistance 

*RES 3: 3782.29 High Apr 27 2015 

*RES 2: 3727.34 Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 1: 3714.26 Monthly High July 20 2015

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3697.40

*SUP 1: 3696.86 Hourly support Nov 1 

*SUP 2: 3669.94 Hourly support Oct 31 

*SUP 3: 3655.10 Hourly support Oct 30 

*SUP 4: 3639.81 High Oct 26 now support

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2017 and 2+ year highs continue and add support to the

bullish case targeting a test of 3714.26-3727.34 where the daily bull channel

top is situated. The Bollinger top (3674.92) remains the key concern for bulls

and hints the move is a little ahead of itself. Layers of support continue to

build with bears now needing a close below 3669.94 to ease bullish pressure and

shift focus back to 3625.87-3639.81.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]