MNI European Morning FI Technical Analysis

8 November 2017

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts

BUND TECHS: (Z17) Above 163.43 Initially Targets 164.00-52

*RES 4: 164.52 Low Sept 1 now resistance (Cont)

*RES 3: 164.00 Low Aug 18 now resistance (Cont)

*RES 2: 163.47 Bollinger band top

*RES 1: 163.43 Monthly high Sept 8

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 163.30

*SUP 1: 163.23 Hourly support Nov 7

*SUP 2: 162.95 Low Nov 7

*SUP 3: 162.61 Low Nov 3

*SUP 4: 162.23 Hourly resistance Oct 27 now support

*COMMENTARY: Bullish confidence grows with a close above the 100-WMA (163.18)

and immediate pressure on Sept highs. Bulls now look for a close above 163.43 to

shift focus to 164.00-52 and above 164.52 to target 165.83 Sept continuation

contract highs. Bears now need a close below 162.95 to ease immediate bullish

pressure and below 162.61 to shift initial focus to 161.89-162.23 and overall

focus back to the bull channel base (161.21).

BOBL TECHS: (Z17) Bulls Targeting 200-WMA

*RES 4: 132.240 Low Aug 7 now resistance (Cont) 

*RES 3: 132.224 200-WMA 

*RES 2: 132.056 Bollinger band top 

*RES 1: 131.990 High Nov 7

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 131.970

*SUP 1: 131.920 Hourly support Nov 7

*SUP 2: 131.860 Low Nov 7

*SUP 3: 131.750 Low Nov 3

*SUP 4: 131.710 Hourly support Nov 2

*COMMENTARY: Gains continue with immediate focus on the 132.224-132.240 region

where the 200-WMA is situated. The Bollinger band top (132.089) & O/B studies

are the key concern for bulls with potential to limit follow through. Initial

support is noted at 131.920 but bears look for a close below 131.860 to ease

bullish pressure and below 131.75 to shift focus to 131.467-572 where the 21 &

55-DMAs are found.

SCHATZ TECHS: (Z17) 112.230 & 112.315 Levels Key

*RES 4: 112.441 Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 3: 112.365 Monthly high Sept 5 (Cont) 

*RES 2: 112.328 Bollinger band top 

*RES 1: 112.315 High Oct 27

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 112.300

*SUP 1: 112.280 Low Nov 7 

*SUP 2: 112.240 Low Oct 27 

*SUP 3: 112.230 High Oct 19 now support 

*SUP 4: 112.200 Alternating hourly support/resistance

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of the previous week's high is a concern but the

bounce from ahead of 112.230 support saw bulls gain breathing room. Bulls

continue to look for a close above 112.315 to end correction talk and confirm

focus on 112.365-455. Bears need a close below 112.280 to ease pressure on

112.315 and below 112.230 to shift initial focus to 112.171-200 where the bull

channel base is found.

GILT TECHS: (Z17) Bulls Need Close Above 125.51

*RES 4: 126.67 High Sept 14 

*RES 3: 126.25 55-WMA 

*RES 2: 126.00 Low Sept 13 now resistance 

*RES 1: 125.51 High Nov 7

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 125.38

*SUP 1: 124.95 Low Nov 7 

*SUP 2: 124.66 Hourly support Nov 2 

*SUP 3: 124.30 Hourly resistance Nov 1 now support 

*SUP 4: 123.84 Low Nov 1

*COMMENTARY: Bulls took comfort in the break of the daily bear channel top and

21-DMA (124.37) that resulted in a rally Thursday and tests of 100 DMA & WMAs.

Bulls now look for a close above 125.51 to open up for a move back to 126.67-80.

The 124.30-66 support region is key this week. Bears need a close below 124.30

end bullish hopes and return pressure to 123.71.

SHORT-STERLING TECHS: (H18) 55-DMA Resistance Key

*RES 4: 99.450 Low Sept 13 now resistance

*RES 3: 99.412 55-DMA

*RES 2: 99.410 High Sept 15

*RES 1: 99.400 High Nov 3, 6 & 7

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.390

*SUP 1: 99.370 Hourly resistance Oct 23 now support

*SUP 2: 99.350 Alternating daily support/resistance

*SUP 3: 99.310 Low Nov 1

*SUP 4: 99.300 2017 Low Oct 17

*COMMENTARY: Bulls regained the upper hand with focus having returned to

99.410-412. Bulls continue to look for a close above the 55-DMA to add support

to their case for a test of 100 (99.457) & 200 (99.493) DMAs. Layers of support

have been left behind with bears needing a close below 99.370 to ease bullish

pressure and below 99.350 to shift focus back to 99.300-310 where 2017 lows are

noted.

EURIBOR TECHS: (H18) Bulls Need Close Above 100.330

*RES 4: 100.374 - Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 3: 100.360 - High Oct 6 

*RES 2: 100.330 - High Oct 19 

*RES 1: 100.325 - 2017 Repeated Daily Highs Sept, Oct & Nov

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.320

*SUP 1: 100.320 - Alternating daily support/resistance

*SUP 2: 100.310 - Low Oct 26

*SUP 3: 100.305 - Repeated Daily Lows Oct

*SUP 4: 100.300 - Alternating daily sup/res, 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The dip below the 21 (100.317) & 55 (100.313) DMAs in previous

weeks lacked follow through with the contract recovering to repeatedly retest

2017 highs. Bulls need a close above 100.330 to target 100.360/374. Bears look

for a close below 100.310 to confirm breaks of 21 & 55-DMAs and ease bullish

pressure. Below the 100-DMA (100.300) is needed to end bullish hopes and shift

focus back to 100.275-285.

US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (Z17) Above 125-16+ Threatens Key DMAs

*RES 4: 126-04+ High Sept 25 

*RES 3: 125-24+ 55-DMA, Bollinger band top 

*RES 2: 125-23+ 100-DMA 

*RES 1: 125-16+ Hourly support Oct 16 now resistance

*PRICE: 125-13+ @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 125-06+ Low Nov 7

*SUP 2: 125-02+ 21-DMA

*SUP 3: 124-28+ Hourly support Nov 1

*SUP 4: 124-23 Low Oct 30 now resistance

*COMMENTARY: Closes above the 21-DMA add support to the case for a correction

back to 125-16+/24+ where 100 & 55-DMAs are situated. A close above the 55-DMA

is needed to hint at a move back to 126-25 with above 126-09 to confirm. Bears

look for a close below 124-28+ to ease bullish pressure and below 124-23 to

reconfirm immediate focus on the 124-00+/06 support region where the rising

weekly TL off 2017 Lows is noted.

US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Flirting With 200-DMA

*RES 4: 2.401 - High Nov 1 

*RES 3: 2.385 - Hourly support Nov 1 now resistance 

*RES 2: 2.365 - Hourly resistance Nov 2 

*RES 1: 2.340 - High Nov 7

*PRICE: 2.312 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 2.278 - Low Oct 16 

*SUP 2: 2.270 - 55-DMA 

*SUP 3: 2.265 - 100-DMA 

*SUP 4: 2.245 - High Sept 26 now support

*COMMENTARY: The yield remains heavy with bears taking comfort in a dip below

the 200-DMA (2.311) adding weight to the case for a test of 2.245-278 where 55 &

100-DMAs are situated. Daily studies have room to move before O/S is an issue.

Layers of resistance remain and add to bearish confidence with bulls needing a

close above 2.365 to gain breathing room and above 2.419 to return initial focus

to 2.477 and overall focus to 2.544-580.

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: Looking A Little Heavy 

*RES 4: 3714.26 Monthly High July 20 2015 

*RES 3: 3708.82 2017 High Nov 1 

*RES 2: 3695.32 High Nov 7 

*RES 1: 3669.94 Hourly support Oct 31 now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3658.77

*SUP 1: 3655.10 Hourly support Oct 30 

*SUP 2: 3639.81 High Oct 26 now support 

*SUP 3: 3625.87 High Oct 18 now support 

*SUP 4: 3623.05 Daily Bull channel base

*COMMENTARY: The lack of follow through on recent 2017 highs and hesitation

ahead of 3714.26 has seen the index break lower, easing bullish pressure and

seeing focus shift to 3623.05-3639.81 where the bull channel base is noted.

Bears now need a close below the channel base to shift initial focus to

3555.40-3580.21 where the 55-DMA is found. Bulls now need a close above 3695.32

to return pressure to 3708.82-3714.26.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]