MNI European Morning FI Technical Analysis

9 November 2017

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts

BUND TECHS: (Z17) 162.95 Support Remains Key

*RES 4: 164.52 Low Sept 1 now resistance (Cont)

*RES 3: 164.00 Low Aug 18 now resistance (Cont)

*RES 2: 163.63 High Nov 8, Bollinger band top

*RES 1: 163.40 Hourly support Nov 8 now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 163.24

*SUP 1: 162.95 Low Nov 7

*SUP 2: 162.61 Low Nov 3

*SUP 3: 162.23 Hourly res Oct 27 now support, 21-DMA

*SUP 4: 162.00 High Oct 26 now support

*COMMENTARY: The lack of follow through on fresh 3mth highs is a concern for

bulls and hints at a correction initially testing 162.95. Bears still need a

close below 162.95 to ease confirm an easing of bullish pressure, below 162.61

to shift initial focus to 161.92-162.23 and overall focus back to the bull

channel base (161.25). Bulls now need a close above 163.63 to reconfirm a

bullish bias initially targeting 164.00-52.

BOBL TECHS: (Z17) 131.86 Support Remains Key

*RES 4: 132.220 200-WMA 

*RES 3: 132.103 Bollinger band top 

*RES 2: 132.060 High Nov 8 

*RES 1: 132.010 Hourly support Nov 8 now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 131.940

*SUP 1: 131.920 Hourly support Nov 7

*SUP 2: 131.860 Low Nov 7

*SUP 3: 131.750 Low Nov 3

*SUP 4: 131.710 Hourly support Nov 2

*COMMENTARY: Topside follow through was lacking on fresh 3mth highs with daily

studies looking to correct from O/B increasing the risk of a test of the 131.860

support. Bears continue to look for a close below 131.860 to ease bullish

pressure and below 131.75 to shift focus to 131.470-630 where the 21 & 55-DMAs

are found. Bulls now need a close above 132.060 to target 132.220-240 where the

200-WMA is situated.

SCHATZ TECHS: (Z17) 112.230 & 112.315 Levels Key

*RES 4: 112.445 Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 3: 112.365 Monthly high Sept 5 (Cont) 

*RES 2: 112.333 Bollinger band top 

*RES 1: 112.315 High Oct 27

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 112.295

*SUP 1: 112.280 Low Nov 7 

*SUP 2: 112.240 Low Oct 27 

*SUP 3: 112.230 High Oct 19 now support 

*SUP 4: 112.200 Alternating hourly support/resistance

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of previous week's highs is a concern but the

bounce from ahead of 112.230 support saw bulls gain breathing room. Bulls

continue to look for a close above 112.315 to end correction talk and confirm

focus on 112.365-455. Bears need a close below 112.280 to ease pressure on

112.315 and below 112.230 to shift initial focus to 112.180-200 where the bull

channel base is found.

GILT TECHS: (Z17) 124.95 Support Key

*RES 4: 126.67 High Sept 14 

*RES 3: 126.26 55-WMA 

*RES 2: 126.00 Low Sept 13 now resistance 

*RES 1: 125.87 High Nov 8

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 125.66

*SUP 1: 124.95 Low Nov 7 

*SUP 2: 124.66 Hourly support Nov 2 

*SUP 3: 124.46 21-DMA 

*SUP 4: 123.84 Low Nov 1

*COMMENTARY: The lack of follow through on the break above 125.51 leaves the

contract looking a little heavy and sees focus return to the 124.95 support.

Bears look for a close below to confirm breaks of 55 (125.06) & 100 (125.32)

DMAs, shifting immediate focus to the 21-DMA (124.46) and overall focus to

123.84. Bulls now look for a close above 126.00 to reconfirm a bullish bias

initially targeting 126.67-80.

SHORT-STERLING TECHS: (H18) 99.410 Resistance Now Key

*RES 4: 99.450 Low Sept 13 now resistance

*RES 3: 99.410 High Sept 15

*RES 2: 99.408 55-DMA

*RES 1: 99.400 High Nov 3, 6 - 8

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.400

*SUP 1: 99.370 Hourly resistance Oct 23 now support

*SUP 2: 99.350 Alternating daily support/resistance

*SUP 3: 99.310 Low Nov 1

*SUP 4: 99.300 2017 Low Oct 17

*COMMENTARY: Bulls regained the upper hand with focus having returned to

99.408-410. Bulls now look for a close above 99.410 to add support to their case

for a test of 100 (99.455) & 200 (99.493) DMAs. Layers of support remain with

bears needing a close below 99.370 to ease bullish pressure and below 99.350 to

shift focus back to 99.300-310 where 2017 lows are noted.

EURIBOR TECHS: (H18) Bulls Need Close Above 100.330

*RES 4: 100.375 - Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 3: 100.360 - High Oct 6 

*RES 2: 100.330 - High Oct 19 

*RES 1: 100.325 - 2017 Repeated Daily Highs Sept, Oct & Nov

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.320

*SUP 1: 100.320 - Alternating daily support/resistance

*SUP 2: 100.310 - Low Oct 26

*SUP 3: 100.305 - Repeated Daily Lows Oct

*SUP 4: 100.300 - Alternating daily sup/res, 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The dip below the 21 (100.318) & 55 (100.314) DMAs in previous

weeks lacked follow through with the contract recovering to repeatedly retest

2017 highs. Bulls need a close above 100.330 to target 100.360/375. Bears look

for a close below 100.310 to confirm breaks of 21 & 55-DMAs and ease bullish

pressure. Below the 100-DMA (100.300) is needed to end bullish hopes and shift

focus back to 100.275-285.

US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (Z17) 124-23+/125-02+ Support Key

*RES 4: 125-24+ Bollinger band top 

*RES 3: 125-23+ 100-DMA, 55-DMA 

*RES 2: 125-16+ Hourly support Oct 16 now resistance 

*RES 1: 125-07+ Hourly support Nov 8 now resistance

*PRICE: 125-04 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 125-02+ 21-DMA

*SUP 2: 124-28+ Hourly support Nov 1

*SUP 3: 124-23 Low Oct 30 now resistance

*SUP 4: 124-06 Low Oct 25

*COMMENTARY: Failure to take out the 125-16+ resistance has left the contract

looking heavy and shifted focus to key support layers 124-23/125-02+ where the

21-DMA is noted. Bears now need a close below 124-28+ to ease bullish pressure

and below 124-23 to reconfirm immediate focus on the 124-00+/06 support region

where the rising weekly TL off 2017 Lows is noted. Above 125-16+ is now needed

to confirm focus on 55 & 100-DMAs.

US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 2.304 & 2.365 Levels Key

*RES 4: 2.401 - High Nov 1 

*RES 3: 2.385 - Hourly support Nov 1 now resistance 

*RES 2: 2.365 - Hourly resistance Nov 2 

*RES 1: 2.340 - High Nov 7

*PRICE: 2.329 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 2.304 - Low Nov 8 

*SUP 2: 2.278 - Low Oct 16 

*SUP 3: 2.273 - 55-DMA 

*SUP 4: 2.267 - 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Bears failed to capitalise on the marginal close below the 200-DMA

(2.311) with bulls taking comfort in Wednesday's recovery. Layers of resistance

remain. Bulls need a close above 2.365 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA (2.355)

easing bearish pressure, and above 2.419 to return initial focus to 2.477 and

overall focus to 2.544-580. Bears now need a close below 2.304 to confirm a

break of the 200-DMA and target 2.245-278.

EUROSTOXX500 TECHS: Bears Focused On Channel Base 

*RES 4: 3714.26 Monthly High July 20 2015 

*RES 3: 3708.82 2017 High Nov 1 

*RES 2: 3695.32 High Nov 7 

*RES 1: 3669.94 Hourly support Oct 31 now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3655.04

*SUP 1: 3639.81 High Oct 26 now support 

*SUP 2: 3628.16 Daily Bull channel base 

*SUP 3: 3625.87 High Oct 18 now support 

*SUP 4: 3580.21 Low Oct 26

*COMMENTARY: The lack of follow through on recent 2017 highs and hesitation

ahead of 3714.26 has seen the index break lower, easing bullish pressure and

seeing focus shift to 3625.87-3639.81 where the bull channel base is noted.

Bears now need a close below 3625.87 to shift initial focus to 3555.40-3580.21

where the 55-DMA is found. Bulls now need a close above 3669.94 to ease pressure

on key supports.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]