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MNI European Morning FI Technical Analysis 

11 January 2018
By Kyle Shortland
Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis
Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts
BUND TECHS: (H18) Above 162.37 To Shift Focus Higher
*RES 4: 162.37 High Dec 27
*RES 3: 162.25 21-DMA
*RES 2: 162.04 High Jan 8
*RES 1: 161.56 Hourly support Jan 9 now resistance
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 161.32
*SUP 1: 160.91 Low Jan 10
*SUP 2: 160.80 High Oct 25 now support
*SUP 3: 160.26 Monthly Low Oct 2
*SUP 4: 159.78 Monthly Low Sept 28
*COMMENTARY: Failure to gain traction on pops above the 100-DMA (161.86)
resulted in a sell-off that sees pressure on 160.80. Bears now look for a close
below 160.80 to reconfirm the bearish bias and add weight to the case for a test
of 159.78-160.26. Daily momentum studies have corrected and are well placed for
a fresh leg lower. Bulls now look for a close above 162.37 to hint at a move
back to 163.78 Dec highs with above 162.79 confirming.
BOBL TECHS: (H18) 131.430 Support Key
*RES 4: 132.035 100-DMA 
*RES 3: 131.880 Hourly support Dec 20 now resistance 
*RES 2: 131.820 High Jan 8 
*RES 1: 131.670 High Jan 10
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 131.610
*SUP 1: 131.490 Low Jan 3
*SUP 2: 131.430 Low Dec 27 & Jan 2
*SUP 3: 131.350 Monthly Low Nov 30 (cont)
*SUP 4: 131.145 Daily Bear channel base
*COMMENTARY: Failure to gain topside traction on the break above 131.760 and
hesitation ahead of 131.880 resulted in a sell-off that sees immediate focus
back on the double daily bottom at 131.430. A close below 131.430 remains needed
to confirm focus on the bear channel base. Bulls now need a close above 131.670
to gain breathing room and above 132.240 to target 132.620-740.
SCHATZ TECHS: (H18) 112.000-035 Resistance Now Key
*RES 4: 112.075 Hourly resistance Dec 19 
*RES 3: 112.035 High Dec 20 
*RES 2: 112.029 21-DMA 
*RES 1: 112.000 High Dec 21 & Jan 3
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 111.975
*SUP 1: 111.940 Lows Jan 4 & 8 
*SUP 2: 111.915 Hourly support Dec 27 
*SUP 3: 111.850 Low Dec 27 
*SUP 4: 111.840 Low July 6 (cont)
*COMMENTARY: The aggressive bounce ahead of the 2017 low in recent weeks eased
bearish pressure with bulls now needing a close above the 112.035 to shift focus
to 112.089-104 where key DMAs are situated. Correcting O/S studies added support
to the bullish case. The 111.915-940 support region remains key with bears
needing a close below 111.915 to maintain focus on 111.805-840 where 2017 lows
are situated.
GILT TECHS: (H18) 123.62 Support Now Key
*RES 4: 125.69 High Dec 15 
*RES 3: 125.41 High Dec 27 
*RES 2: 124.96 High Jan 3 & 8 
*RES 1: 124.41 Low Jan 8 now resistance
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 124.12
*SUP 1: 123.95 Low Jan 2 
*SUP 2: 123.94 Bollinger band base 
*SUP 3: 123.83 Daily Bull channel base 
*SUP 4: 123.62 Low Dec 8
*COMMENTARY: The correction lower from 125.41 sees focus back on the 123.62-95
support region where the bull channel base and Bollinger base are located. Bears
now look for a close below 123.62 to confirm a break of the bull channel base
and to shift overall focus to tests of 122.44 Oct lows. Bulls need a close above
124.41 to gain breathing room and above 124.96 to shift focus back to 125.41-69.
SHORT-STERLING TECHS: (H18) Topside Hesitation A Worry
*RES 4: 99.520 High Sept 14
*RES 3: 99.480 200-DMA
*RES 2: 99.478 55-WMA
*RES 1: 99.450 Low Sept 13 now resistance
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.440
*SUP 1: 99.437 21-DMA
*SUP 2: 99.410 Repeated Daily highs now support
*SUP 3: 99.390 Lows Dec 5 & 8
*SUP 4: 99.370 Low Nov 3, 28 & 29
*COMMENTARY: The 99.450 resistance level has held firm. Bulls continue to look
for a close above 99.450 to shift focus to 99.478-520 where the 55-WMA and
200-DMA are noted. The 21-DMA remains initial support with bears still needing a
close below to gain breathing room. A close below 99.390 is needed to confirm a
break of the 55-DMA (99.402) and hint at a move back to 99.300-310.
EURIBOR TECHS: (M18) 100.310 Support Remains Unbroken
*RES 4: 100.336 - Daily Bull channel top 
*RES 3: 100.325 - High Oct 19 2016, High Dec 15 
*RES 2: 100.320 - Repeated Daily highs Dec 
*RES 1: 100.315 - 21-DMA
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.310
*SUP 1: 100.310 - Low Dec 12, Repeated Lows Jan
*SUP 2: 100.305 - Lows Dec 4 & 5
*SUP 3: 100.304 - 100-DMA
*SUP 4: 100.295 - Low Dec 1
*COMMENTARY: Pressure remains on the 100.310 support with bears needing a close
below to confirm an easing of bullish pressure and below the 100-DMA to hint at
a move back to 100.285. The 100.325 resistance level remains key. Bulls need a
close above 100.325 to reconfirm dominance and above the bull channel top to
shift focus to 100.340-380 last seen in 2016.
US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (H18) 123-09+/23+ Resistance Key
*RES 4: 124-02+ High Dec 29
*RES 3: 123-23+ 21-DMA
*RES 2: 123-20 High Jan 8
*RES 1: 123-09 Hourly support Jan 9 now resistance
*PRICE: 123-03+ @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: 122-28+ Hourly resistance Jan 10 now support
*SUP 2: 122-22+ Monthly Low Apr 4 2014, 2018 Low Jan 10
*SUP 3: 121-22+ Monthly Low July 1 2011
*SUP 4: 120-25+ Low Apr 29 2011
*COMMENTARY: Fresh 3+yr lows resulted in a dip below the bear channel base
before finding support at 122-22+. Bears now look for a close below this level
to shift focus to 120-25+/121-22+. The Bollinger base (122-26+) is a concern for
bears and limits follow through. Layers of resistance remain with bulls needing
a close above 123-09 to ease bearish pressure and above the 21-DMA to shift
focus to 124-02+/13+ where the bear channel top and 55-DMA are noted.
US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Topside Follow Through Lacking
*RES 4: 2.692 - Monthly High July 3 2014 
*RES 3: 2.641 - 2016 High Dec 15 
*RES 2: 2.629 - 2017 High Mar 13 
*RES 1: 2.597 - 2018 High Jan 10
*PRICE: 2.540 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: 2.504 - High Dec 21 now support 
*SUP 2: 2.462 - Low Jan 8 
*SUP 3: 2.451 - 21-DMA 
*SUP 4: 2.429 - Daily Bull channel base
*COMMENTARY: The lack of topside follow through on fresh 10mth highs is a
concern for bulls who are currently focused on 2.629-692 where yearly and
monthly highs are situated. Daily studies have room to move before O/B becomes
an issue. Bears continue to look for a close below 2.504 to gain breathing room
and hint at a correction back to 2.399-2.451 where the 21 & 55-DMAs and bull
channel base off Sept lows are noted.
EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: Topside Hesitation A Concern
*RES 4: 3670.47 Low Nov 6 now resistance 
*RES 3: 3642.10 Low Nov 8 now resistance 
*RES 2: 3629.73 2018 High Jan 9 
*RES 1: 3614.52 Hourly support Dec 10 now resistance
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3609.83
*SUP 1: 3589.80 55-DMA 
*SUP 2: 3570.51 Low Jan 5 
*SUP 3: 3524.31 Hourly resistance Dec 29 now support 
*SUP 4: 3508.37 Hourly resistance Feb 2 now support
*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of the 3642.1 resistance is less than ideal for
bulls who need a close above this level to confirm initial focus on tests of
2017 highs. Weekly studies remain well placed for further topside following the
recovery from a dip below the 55-WMA (3492.82) last week. Bears continue to look
for a close below 3570.51 to shift focus back to 2018 lows so far.
--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]
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