MNI European Morning FI Technical Analysis

18 January 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts

BUND TECHS: (H18) Initial Resistance Confirms Significance

*RES 4: 162.04 High Jan 8

*RES 3: 161.57 21-DMA

*RES 2: 161.56 Hourly support Jan 9 now resistance

*RES 1: 160.97 Highs Jan 16 & 17

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 160.69

*SUP 1: 160.55 Hourly support Jan 16

*SUP 2: 160.11 2018 Low Jan 12

*SUP 3: 159.91 Bollinger band base

*SUP 4: 159.78 Monthly Low Sept 28

*COMMENTARY: Failure to capitalise on the recovery from 2018 lows saw the

significance of 160.97 confirmed with bulls now needing a close above to ease

bearish pressure and shift focus to 161.56-162.37 where key DMAs are situated.

Above 162.37 is needed to target 163.78. Bears currently look for a close back

below 160.55 to reconfirm focus on 158.47-159.78 where the 200-WMA is noted. O/S

daily studies remain the key concern for bears.

BOBL TECHS: (H18) Below 130.92 Targets 130.390-580

*RES 4: 131.720 High Jan 11 

*RES 3: 131.520 Low Jan 10 now resistance 

*RES 2: 131.340 Hourly resistance Jan 11 

*RES 1: 131.270 Highs Jan 15 & 16

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 131.180

*SUP 1: 131.080 Hourly support Jan 15

*SUP 2: 130.922 Bollinger band base

*SUP 3: 130.920 2017 Low Sept 28, 2018 Low Jan 12

*SUP 4: 130.580 Low Nov 16 2016

*COMMENTARY: The the dip to 130.92 last week has so far lacked follow through

with the contract pressuring 131.270-340 resistance. Bulls continue to look for

a close above 131.340 to ease bearish pressure and above 131.520 to pressure

131.720-880. While 131.340 caps bears remain focused on the close below 2017/18

lows needed to confirm focus on 130.390-580.

SCHATZ TECHS: (H18) 111.915-940 Resistance Region Key

*RES 4: 111.985 High Jan 11 

*RES 3: 111.940 Lows Jan 4 & 8 now resistance 

*RES 2: 111.915 Hourly support Dec 27 now resistance 

*RES 1: 111.895 High Jan 15

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 111.885

*SUP 1: 111.860 Lows Jan 15 & 16 

*SUP 2: 111.830 2018 Low Jan 12 

*SUP 3: 111.805 2017 Low June 28 

*SUP 4: 111.800 Low May 20 2016

*COMMENTARY: Bears reconfirmed dominance with a sell-off and bearish close that

sees focus on layers of support 111.750-745 where yearly and monthly lows are

located. Bulls look for a close above 111.915 to ease bearish pressure above

111.940 to hint at a correction back to 111.970-112.035 where 2018 highs are

located. Above 112.035 is needed to shift focus to 55 (112.069) & 100 (112.086)

DMAs.

GILT TECHS: (H18) 124.20-96 Resistance Key

*RES 4: 125.41 High Dec 27 

*RES 3: 124.96 High Jan 3 & 8 

*RES 2: 124.50 High Jan 11 

*RES 1: 124.20 High Jan 16

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 123.99

*SUP 1: 123.69 Hourly support Jan 15 

*SUP 2: 123.26 2018 Low Jan 12 

*SUP 3: 123.12 Monthly Low Nov 30 

*SUP 4: 122.44 Monthly Low Oct 25

*COMMENTARY: Losses defined last week although bulls take a little comfort in

the lack of follow through on 2mth and 2018 lows with the Bollinger base noted

at 123.42. Bears still look for a close below 123.12 to confirm focus on 122.44

Oct lows. Bulls need a close above 124.20 to ease immediate bearish pressure and

above 124.96 to shift focus back to 125.41-69. Daily studies correcting from O/S

and the Bollinger base remain key concerns for bears.

SHORT-STERLING TECHS: (H18) Bulls Need Close Above 99.450

*RES 4: 99.520 High Sept 14

*RES 3: 99.479 200-DMA

*RES 2: 99.478 55-WMA

*RES 1: 99.450 Low Sept 13 now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.450

*SUP 1: 99.435 Low Jan 12

*SUP 2: 99.410 Repeated Daily highs now support

*SUP 3: 99.390 Lows Dec 5 & 8

*SUP 4: 99.370 Low Nov 3, 28 & 29

*COMMENTARY: The 99.450 resistance level has held firm. Bulls continue to look

for a close above 99.450 to shift focus to 99.478-520 where the 55-WMA and

200-DMA are noted. Dips below the 21-DMA (99.443) lacked follow through with

bears needing a close below 99.435 to gain breathing room. A close below the

100-DMA (99.410) is now needed to hint at a move back to 99.300-310.

EURIBOR TECHS: (M18) 100.315 Resistance Now Key

*RES 4: 100.325 - High Oct 19 2016, High Dec 15 

*RES 3: 100.321 - Bollinger band top 

*RES 2: 100.320 - Repeated Daily highs Dec 

*RES 1: 100.315 - High Jan 17

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.310

*SUP 1: 100.305 - Lows Dec 4 & 5. 100-DMA

*SUP 2: 100.304 - Bollinger band base

*SUP 3: 100.295 - Low Dec 1

*SUP 4: 100.285 - Repeated Daily lows Oct

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in the 100-DMA holding firm with bears needing a

close below the 100-DMA to hint at a move back to 100.285. The pop above 21 &

55-DMAs lacked follow through Wednesday with bulls now needing a close above

100.315 o ease bearish pressure and shift initial focus to 100.320-325. Daily

studies at modestly O/S levels and looking to correct remains the key concern

for bears.

US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (H18) Bears Targeting 120-25+/121-22+

*RES 4: 123-05+ Highs Jan 11 & 16

*RES 3: 122-30  Hourly resistance Jan 17

*RES 2: 122-22  Hourly support Jan 17 now resistance

*RES 1: 122-20  Low Jan 12 now resistance

*PRICE: 122-18 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 122-13+ Daily Bear channel base

*SUP 2: 121-22+ Monthly Low July 1 2011

*SUP 3: 120-25+ Low Apr 29 2011

*SUP 4: 119-24  Low Apr 21 2011

*COMMENTARY: Topside hesitation has taken its toll with fresh 2018 and 6+ year

lows that see bears focused on 120-25+/121-22+. The Bollinger base (122-17+) is

a concern for bears and recently limited follow through. Layers of resistance

are building with bulls now needing a close above 122-30 to ease bearish

pressure and hint at a correction back to 123-05+/123-20. Bears need a close

below 121-22+ to add weight to their case.

US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Above 2.597 Initially Targets 2.629-692

*RES 4: 2.692 - Monthly High July 3 2014 

*RES 3: 2.641 - 2016 High Dec 15 

*RES 2: 2.629 - 2017 High Mar 13 

*RES 1: 2.597 - 2018 High Jan 10

*PRICE: 2.589 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 2.571 - Hourly resistance Jan 17 now support 

*SUP 2: 2.541 - Hourly support Jan 17 

*SUP 3: 2.522 - Low Jan 16 

*SUP 4: 2.504 - High Dec 21 now support

*COMMENTARY: The 2.477-522 support region has provided the base for bounce back

towards 2018 highs and the double daily top. Bulls look for a close above 2.597

to reconfirm focus on 2.629-692 where yearly and monthly highs are located. O/B

daily studies remain a concern for bulls. Bears now look for a close below 2.571

to ease bullish pressure and below 2.522 to pressure the 21-DMA (2.488).

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: 3570.51-3588.66 Support Key

*RES 4: 3670.47 Low Nov 6 now resistance 

*RES 3: 3653.47 Bollinger band top 

*RES 2: 3642.10 Low Nov 8 now resistance 

*RES 1: 3624.68 High Jan 17

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3612.78

*SUP 1: 3588.66 55-DMA 

*SUP 2: 3570.51 Low Jan 5 

*SUP 3: 3524.31 Hourly resistance Dec 29 now support 

*SUP 4: 3508.37 Hourly resistance Feb 2 now support

*COMMENTARY: Continued hesitation ahead of 3642.10 is less than ideal for bulls

who need a close above this level to confirm initial focus on tests of 2017

highs. Weekly studies remain well placed for further topside following the

recovery from a dip below the 55-WMA (3498.73) in past weeks. Bears now look for

a close below the 55-DMA to gain breathing room and below 3570.51 to shift focus

back to 2018 lows so far.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]