MNI European Morning FI Technical Analysis

25 January 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts

BUND TECHS: (H18) Above 161.13 To Ease Bearish Pressure

*RES 4: 161.77 100-DMA

*RES 3: 161.56 Hourly support Jan 9 now resistance

*RES 2: 161.13 High Jan 23

*RES 1: 160.85 High Jan 24

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 160.55

*SUP 1: 160.30 Lows Jan 15 & 18

*SUP 2: 160.11 2018 Low Jan 12

*SUP 3: 159.99 Bollinger band base

*SUP 4: 159.78 Monthly Low Sept 28

*COMMENTARY: Tuesday's attempts to regain lost ground resulted in rejection

ahead of the 21-DMA although bulls take comfort in correcting O/S studies

increasing correction risk. Bulls now need a close above 161.13 to confirm a

break of the 21-DMA, easing of bearish pressure and to shift focus to

161.55-162.37 where 55 & 100-DMAs are located. The 160.30 level is currently

supporting but bears remain focused n a test of 159.78-160.11 while 161.13 caps.

BOBL TECHS: (H18) Bulls Need Close Above 131.520

*RES 4: 131.520 Low Jan 10 now resistance 

*RES 3: 131.421 21-DMA 

*RES 2: 131.380 Hourly resistance Jan 23 

*RES 1: 131.290 High Jan 24

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 131.290

*SUP 1: 131.120 Low Jan 24

*SUP 2: 131.050 Low Jan 18

*SUP 3: 130.966 Bollinger band base

*SUP 4: 130.920 2017 Low Sept 28, 2018 Low Jan 12

*COMMENTARY: The 21-DMA capped Tuesday's attempt to rally with bulls continuing

to look for a close above 131.520 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and pressure

131.720-880. Overall a close above the 55-DMA (132.001) is needed to end bearish

hopes and initially target 132.240. While the 21-DMA caps bears remain focused

on the close below 2017/18 lows needed to confirm focus on 130.390-580.

SCHATZ TECHS: (H18) Bears In Control While 111.950 Caps

*RES 4: 112.035 High Dec 20 

*RES 3: 112.000 High Dec 21 & Jan 3 

*RES 2: 111.985 High Jan 11 

*RES 1: 111.950 High Jan 23

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 111.915

*SUP 1: 111.905 Low Jan 24 

*SUP 2: 111.885 Low Jan 18 

*SUP 3: 111.850 Bollinger band base 

*SUP 4: 111.830 2018 Low Jan 12

*COMMENTARY: The contract continues to flirt with the 21-DMA (111.930) after the

lack of topside follow through on the break of 111.940. Bulls now look for a

close above 111.950 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA, shifting immediate focus

to 111.985-000 and overall focus to 55 & 100-DMAs 112.049-069. Bears now look

for a close below 111.905 to return immediate focus to retests of 111.800-830

where 2018 lows are located.

GILT TECHS: (H18) Below 122.44 To Confirm Focus On 200-WMA

*RES 4: 124.20 High Jan 16 

*RES 3: 123.82 High Jan 19 

*RES 2: 123.43 High Jan 24 

*RES 1: 123.26 2018 Low Jan 12 now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 122.86

*SUP 1: 122.69 2018 Low Jan 24 

*SUP 2: 122.44 Monthly Low Oct 25 

*SUP 3: 121.33 200-WMA 

*SUP 4: 120.54 Monthly Low May 25 2016

*COMMENTARY: The contract remained capped ahead of key DMAs last week with the

sell-off Thursday leaving H18 looking a little heavy. The close below 123.12

sees immediate focus now on the close below 122.44 needed to confirm focus on

the 200-WMA and then the May 2015 monthly low beneath. Layers of resistance are

again weighing with bulls needing a close above 123.26 to ease bearish pressure

and above 123.43 to initially pressure 123.82.

SHORT-STERLING TECHS: (H18) 99.435 & 99.450 Levels Remain Key

*RES 4: 99.550 High Sept 12

*RES 3: 99.520 High Sept 14

*RES 2: 99.477 55-WMA, 200-DMA

*RES 1: 99.450 Low Sept 13 now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.440

*SUP 1: 99.435 Low Jan 12

*SUP 2: 99.410 Repeated Daily highs now support

*SUP 3: 99.390 Lows Dec 5 & 8

*SUP 4: 99.370 Low Nov 3, 28 & 29

*COMMENTARY: The 99.450 resistance level has held firm. Bulls continue to look

for a close above 99.450 to shift focus to 99.477-520 where the 55-WMA and

200-DMA are noted. Dips below the 21-DMA (99.444) lack follow through with bears

needing a close below 99.435 to gain breathing room. A close below the 100-DMA

(99.402) remains needed to hint at a move back to 99.300-310.

EURIBOR TECHS: (M18) 100.305 & 100.315 Levels Key

*RES 4: 100.325 - High Oct 19 2016, High Dec 15 

*RES 3: 100.320 - Repeated Daily highs Dec 

*RES 2: 100.318 - Bollinger band top 

*RES 1: 100.315 - High Jan 17 & 18

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.315

*SUP 1: 100.305 - Lows Dec 4 & 5

*SUP 2: 100.304 - Bollinger band base

*SUP 3: 100.295 - Low Dec 1

*SUP 4: 100.285 - Repeated Daily lows Oct

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in the 100-DMA (100.306) holding firm so far in

2018 with bears needing a close below 100.305 to hint at a move back to 100.285.

The pops above 21 & 55-DMAs lack follow through with bulls still needing a close

above 100.315 to confirm a break, ease bearish pressure and shift initial focus

to 100.320-325. Bollinger bands now narrowing hints at a break out in the short

term.

US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (H18) Remains Capped Ahead Of Key Resistance

*RES 4: 123-05+ Highs Jan 11 & 16, 21-DMA

*RES 3: 122-30 Hourly resistance Jan 17

*RES 2: 122-20 Low Jan 12 now resistance

*RES 1: 122-12 Hourly resistance Jan 24

*PRICE: 122-07 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 122-04 Low Jan 24

*SUP 2: 122-06 Hourly resistance Jan 22 now support

*SUP 3: 122-01+ 2018 Low Jan 22

*SUP 4: 121-22+ Monthly Low July 1 2011

*COMMENTARY: Follow through has been lacking on the most recent 2018 and 6+ year

low with O/S daily studies looking to correct the key concern for bears. The

122-20 resistance remains key. Bulls still a close above 122-20 to hint at a

correction back to 123-05+/123-20 where a channel top and 21-DMA are situated.

Bears remain focused on 120-25+/121-22+ while 122-20 caps.

US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above 2.692

*RES 4: 2.748 - High Apr 22 2014 

*RES 3: 2.692 - Monthly High July 3 2014 

*RES 2: 2.681 - Bollinger band top 

*RES 1: 2.672 - 2018 High Jan 22

*PRICE: 2.650 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 2.634 - Hourly support Jan 24 

*SUP 2: 2.609 - Low Jan 24 

*SUP 3: 2.585 - Low Jan 18 

*SUP 4: 2.571 - Hourly resistance Jan 17 now support

*COMMENTARY: Despite topside follow through lacking on recent 2018 & 3+ year

highs bears have failed to capitalise with the yield finding support ahead of

the key 2.571 level on Wednesday's dip. Bears continue to look for a close below

2.571 to hint at a correction back to 2.489-525 where the 21-DMA (2.525) is

noted. Bulls still need a close above 2.692 to confirm focus on 2.763-821 where

the daily bull channel top (2.778) is situated.

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: Bears Now Need Close Below 3628.13

*RES 4: 3708.82 2017 High Nov 1 

*RES 3: 3687.29 2018 High Jan 23 

*RES 2: 3574.50 High Jan 24 

*RES 1: 3655.39 Hourly support Jan 22 now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3643.22

*SUP 1: 3638.91 Hourly support Jan 19 

*SUP 2: 3628.13 High Jan 18

*SUP 3: 3603.47 Low Jan 15 

*SUP 4: 3593.47 21-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The lack of topside follow through on fresh 2018 and 2mth highs has

been followed up with a correction lower that leaves the index looking a little

heavy when combined with daily studies correcting from O/B. Bears now need a

close below 3628.13 to shift initial focus to 3750.51-3603.47 where 21, 55

(3585.72) & 100 (3580.21) DMAs are situated. Bulls continue to look for a close

above 3714.26 to 3786.36.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]