-
Policy
Policy
Exclusive interviews with leading policymakers that convey the true policy message that impacts markets.
LATEST FROM POLICY: -
EM Policy
EM Policy
Exclusive interviews with leading policymakers that convey the true policy message that impacts markets.
LATEST FROM EM POLICY: -
G10 Markets
G10 Markets
Real-time insight on key fixed income and fx markets.
Launch MNI PodcastsFixed IncomeFI Markets AnalysisCentral Bank PreviewsFI PiFixed Income Technical AnalysisUS$ Credit Supply PipelineGilt Week AheadGlobal IssuanceEurozoneUKUSDeep DiveGlobal Issuance CalendarsEZ/UK Bond Auction CalendarEZ/UK T-bill Auction CalendarUS Treasury Auction CalendarPolitical RiskMNI Political Risk AnalysisMNI Political Risk - US Daily BriefMNI Political Risk - The week AheadElection Previews -
Emerging Markets
Emerging Markets
Real-time insight of emerging markets in CEMEA, Asia and LatAm region
-
Commodities
-
Credit
Credit
Real time insight of credit markets
-
Data
-
Global Macro
Global Macro
Actionable insight on monetary policy, balance sheet and inflation with focus on global issuance. Analysis on key political risk impacting the global markets.
Global MacroDM Central Bank PreviewsDM Central Bank ReviewsEM Central Bank PreviewsEM Central Bank ReviewsBalance Sheet AnalysisData AnalysisEurozone DataUK DataUS DataAPAC DataInflation InsightEmployment InsightGlobal IssuanceEurozoneUKUSDeep DiveGlobal Issuance Calendars EZ/UK Bond Auction Calendar EZ/UK T-bill Auction Calendar US Treasury Auction Calendar Chart Packs -
About Us
To read the full story
Sign up now for free trial access to this content.
Please enter your details below.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Real-time Actionable Insight
Get the latest on Central Bank Policy and FX & FI Markets to help inform both your strategic and tactical decision-making.
Free AccessMNI European Morning FI Technical Analysis
25 January 2018
By Kyle Shortland
Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis
Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts
BUND TECHS: (H18) Above 161.13 To Ease Bearish Pressure
*RES 4: 161.77 100-DMA
*RES 3: 161.56 Hourly support Jan 9 now resistance
*RES 2: 161.13 High Jan 23
*RES 1: 160.85 High Jan 24
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 160.55
*SUP 1: 160.30 Lows Jan 15 & 18
*SUP 2: 160.11 2018 Low Jan 12
*SUP 3: 159.99 Bollinger band base
*SUP 4: 159.78 Monthly Low Sept 28
*COMMENTARY: Tuesday's attempts to regain lost ground resulted in rejection
ahead of the 21-DMA although bulls take comfort in correcting O/S studies
increasing correction risk. Bulls now need a close above 161.13 to confirm a
break of the 21-DMA, easing of bearish pressure and to shift focus to
161.55-162.37 where 55 & 100-DMAs are located. The 160.30 level is currently
supporting but bears remain focused n a test of 159.78-160.11 while 161.13 caps.
BOBL TECHS: (H18) Bulls Need Close Above 131.520
*RES 4: 131.520 Low Jan 10 now resistance
*RES 3: 131.421 21-DMA
*RES 2: 131.380 Hourly resistance Jan 23
*RES 1: 131.290 High Jan 24
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 131.290
*SUP 1: 131.120 Low Jan 24
*SUP 2: 131.050 Low Jan 18
*SUP 3: 130.966 Bollinger band base
*SUP 4: 130.920 2017 Low Sept 28, 2018 Low Jan 12
*COMMENTARY: The 21-DMA capped Tuesday's attempt to rally with bulls continuing
to look for a close above 131.520 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and pressure
131.720-880. Overall a close above the 55-DMA (132.001) is needed to end bearish
hopes and initially target 132.240. While the 21-DMA caps bears remain focused
on the close below 2017/18 lows needed to confirm focus on 130.390-580.
SCHATZ TECHS: (H18) Bears In Control While 111.950 Caps
*RES 4: 112.035 High Dec 20
*RES 3: 112.000 High Dec 21 & Jan 3
*RES 2: 111.985 High Jan 11
*RES 1: 111.950 High Jan 23
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 111.915
*SUP 1: 111.905 Low Jan 24
*SUP 2: 111.885 Low Jan 18
*SUP 3: 111.850 Bollinger band base
*SUP 4: 111.830 2018 Low Jan 12
*COMMENTARY: The contract continues to flirt with the 21-DMA (111.930) after the
lack of topside follow through on the break of 111.940. Bulls now look for a
close above 111.950 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA, shifting immediate focus
to 111.985-000 and overall focus to 55 & 100-DMAs 112.049-069. Bears now look
for a close below 111.905 to return immediate focus to retests of 111.800-830
where 2018 lows are located.
GILT TECHS: (H18) Below 122.44 To Confirm Focus On 200-WMA
*RES 4: 124.20 High Jan 16
*RES 3: 123.82 High Jan 19
*RES 2: 123.43 High Jan 24
*RES 1: 123.26 2018 Low Jan 12 now resistance
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 122.86
*SUP 1: 122.69 2018 Low Jan 24
*SUP 2: 122.44 Monthly Low Oct 25
*SUP 3: 121.33 200-WMA
*SUP 4: 120.54 Monthly Low May 25 2016
*COMMENTARY: The contract remained capped ahead of key DMAs last week with the
sell-off Thursday leaving H18 looking a little heavy. The close below 123.12
sees immediate focus now on the close below 122.44 needed to confirm focus on
the 200-WMA and then the May 2015 monthly low beneath. Layers of resistance are
again weighing with bulls needing a close above 123.26 to ease bearish pressure
and above 123.43 to initially pressure 123.82.
SHORT-STERLING TECHS: (H18) 99.435 & 99.450 Levels Remain Key
*RES 4: 99.550 High Sept 12
*RES 3: 99.520 High Sept 14
*RES 2: 99.477 55-WMA, 200-DMA
*RES 1: 99.450 Low Sept 13 now resistance
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.440
*SUP 1: 99.435 Low Jan 12
*SUP 2: 99.410 Repeated Daily highs now support
*SUP 3: 99.390 Lows Dec 5 & 8
*SUP 4: 99.370 Low Nov 3, 28 & 29
*COMMENTARY: The 99.450 resistance level has held firm. Bulls continue to look
for a close above 99.450 to shift focus to 99.477-520 where the 55-WMA and
200-DMA are noted. Dips below the 21-DMA (99.444) lack follow through with bears
needing a close below 99.435 to gain breathing room. A close below the 100-DMA
(99.402) remains needed to hint at a move back to 99.300-310.
EURIBOR TECHS: (M18) 100.305 & 100.315 Levels Key
*RES 4: 100.325 - High Oct 19 2016, High Dec 15
*RES 3: 100.320 - Repeated Daily highs Dec
*RES 2: 100.318 - Bollinger band top
*RES 1: 100.315 - High Jan 17 & 18
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.315
*SUP 1: 100.305 - Lows Dec 4 & 5
*SUP 2: 100.304 - Bollinger band base
*SUP 3: 100.295 - Low Dec 1
*SUP 4: 100.285 - Repeated Daily lows Oct
*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in the 100-DMA (100.306) holding firm so far in
2018 with bears needing a close below 100.305 to hint at a move back to 100.285.
The pops above 21 & 55-DMAs lack follow through with bulls still needing a close
above 100.315 to confirm a break, ease bearish pressure and shift initial focus
to 100.320-325. Bollinger bands now narrowing hints at a break out in the short
term.
US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (H18) Remains Capped Ahead Of Key Resistance
*RES 4: 123-05+ Highs Jan 11 & 16, 21-DMA
*RES 3: 122-30 Hourly resistance Jan 17
*RES 2: 122-20 Low Jan 12 now resistance
*RES 1: 122-12 Hourly resistance Jan 24
*PRICE: 122-07 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: 122-04 Low Jan 24
*SUP 2: 122-06 Hourly resistance Jan 22 now support
*SUP 3: 122-01+ 2018 Low Jan 22
*SUP 4: 121-22+ Monthly Low July 1 2011
*COMMENTARY: Follow through has been lacking on the most recent 2018 and 6+ year
low with O/S daily studies looking to correct the key concern for bears. The
122-20 resistance remains key. Bulls still a close above 122-20 to hint at a
correction back to 123-05+/123-20 where a channel top and 21-DMA are situated.
Bears remain focused on 120-25+/121-22+ while 122-20 caps.
US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above 2.692
*RES 4: 2.748 - High Apr 22 2014
*RES 3: 2.692 - Monthly High July 3 2014
*RES 2: 2.681 - Bollinger band top
*RES 1: 2.672 - 2018 High Jan 22
*PRICE: 2.650 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: 2.634 - Hourly support Jan 24
*SUP 2: 2.609 - Low Jan 24
*SUP 3: 2.585 - Low Jan 18
*SUP 4: 2.571 - Hourly resistance Jan 17 now support
*COMMENTARY: Despite topside follow through lacking on recent 2018 & 3+ year
highs bears have failed to capitalise with the yield finding support ahead of
the key 2.571 level on Wednesday's dip. Bears continue to look for a close below
2.571 to hint at a correction back to 2.489-525 where the 21-DMA (2.525) is
noted. Bulls still need a close above 2.692 to confirm focus on 2.763-821 where
the daily bull channel top (2.778) is situated.
EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: Bears Now Need Close Below 3628.13
*RES 4: 3708.82 2017 High Nov 1
*RES 3: 3687.29 2018 High Jan 23
*RES 2: 3574.50 High Jan 24
*RES 1: 3655.39 Hourly support Jan 22 now resistance
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3643.22
*SUP 1: 3638.91 Hourly support Jan 19
*SUP 2: 3628.13 High Jan 18
*SUP 3: 3603.47 Low Jan 15
*SUP 4: 3593.47 21-DMA
*COMMENTARY: The lack of topside follow through on fresh 2018 and 2mth highs has
been followed up with a correction lower that leaves the index looking a little
heavy when combined with daily studies correcting from O/B. Bears now need a
close below 3628.13 to shift initial focus to 3750.51-3603.47 where 21, 55
(3585.72) & 100 (3580.21) DMAs are situated. Bulls continue to look for a close
above 3714.26 to 3786.36.
--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]
To read the full story
Sign up now for free trial access to this content.
Please enter your details below.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.