MNI European Morning FI Technical Analysis

12 February 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts

BUND TECHS: (H18) Weekly Bear Channel Base Lurking Below

*RES 4: 159.66 High Jan 29, Daily Bear channel top

*RES 3: 159.33 High Jan 31

*RES 2: 158.92 High Feb 6

*RES 1: 158.65 High Feb 9

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 158.01

*SUP 1: 157.70 Low Feb 9

*SUP 2: 157.26 2018 Low Feb 8

*SUP 3: 156.78 Low Dec 16 2015

*SUP 4: 156.57 Weekly bear channel base

*COMMENTARY: The bullish key day reversal failed to deliver with H18 trading at

2018 & 2+yr lows Thursday, although follow through is lacking. O/S daily studies

and the Bollinger base (157.26) remain concerns for bears who are focused on

156.57-78 where the weekly bear channel base is located. A close below 154.81

then targets 148.23 2015 lows. Bulls now need a close above 158.65 to ease

bearish pressure and above the daily bear channel top (159.66) to shift focus

higher.

BOBL TECHS: (H18) Capped Ahead Of 21-DMA & Channel Top

*RES 4: 130.990 High Feb 5 

*RES 3: 130.817 21-DMA 

*RES 2: 130.785 Daily Bear channel top 

*RES 1: 130.710 High Feb 9

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 130.500

*SUP 1: 130.360 Low Feb 9

*SUP 2: 130.160 2018 Low Feb 8

*SUP 3: 129.934 Daily bear channel base

*SUP 4: 129.460 High Dec 7 2015 now support

*COMMENTARY: The 21-DMA and bear channel top confirmed significance capping the

aggressive bounce last Monday resulting in fresh 2018 & 2+yr lows Thursday. The

lack of follow through Thursday is a concern given correcting O/S studies. In

saying that, bulls now need a close above the 21-DMA to ease bearish pressure

and above 131.050 to shift focus to 131.450-520.

SCHATZ TECHS: (H18) Above 111.950 Initially Targets 111.982-112.035

*RES 4: 111.982 55-DMA 

*RES 3: 111.950 High Jan 23 

*RES 2: 111.946 Bollinger band top 

*RES 1: 111.920 High Feb 6

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 111.885

*SUP 1: 111.835 Low Feb 9 

*SUP 2: 111.800 Low Feb 8 

*SUP 3: 111.785 Hourly support Jan 29 

*SUP 4: 111.765 2018 Low Jan 29

*COMMENTARY: 111.950 resistance confirmed significance with the recovery from

2018 lows capped ahead of this level. Bulls take comfort in the failure to

retest 2018 lows and the recovery Thursday. Bulls continue to look for a close

above 111.950 to shift initial focus to 111.982-112.035 and above 112.035 to

target 112.240 Dec highs. While 111.950 caps bears remain focused on tests of

2018 lows with overall focus on the 200-WMA (111.631).

GILT TECHS: (H18) Above 122.65 To Shift Focus Higher

*RES 4: 122.60 21-DMA 

*RES 3: 122.28 Low Jan 29 now resistance 

*RES 2: 121.97 High Feb 7 

*RES 1: 121.69 High Feb 9

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 121.12

*SUP 1: 120.99 Hourly support Feb 9 

*SUP 2: 120.71 Hourly support Feb 8 

*SUP 3: 120.48 2018 Low Feb 8 

*SUP 4: 119.73 Weekly Bear channel base

*COMMENTARY: The topside failure ahead of 122.28 resulted in fresh 2018 & nearly

2 year lows Thursday although follow through has been lacking with the Bollinger

base (120.64) and O/S studies key concerns for bears. Bulls now look for a close

above 121.69 to ease immediate bearish pressure and above 122.65 to confirm a

break of the 21-DMA and shift in initial focus to 123.12-81 where 55 & 100-DMAs

are noted.

SHORT-STERLING TECHS: (H18) 99.390 & 99.450 Major Levels

*RES 4: 99.450 Low Sept 13 now resistance

*RES 3: 99.435 Repeated Daily Lows now resistance

*RES 2: 99.427 55-DMA

*RES 1: 99.415 High Feb 9

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.410

*SUP 1: 99.405 Hourly support Feb 8, Low Feb 9

*SUP 2: 99.394 100-DMA

*SUP 3: 99.390 Lows Dec 5 & 8, 2018 Low Feb 8

*SUP 4: 99.370 Low Nov 3, 28 & 29

*COMMENTARY: Having remained capped at 99.435 recently provided the cap for a

dip below the 100-DMA Thursday that confirmed significance of the 99.390 support

by bouncing from this level. Bears need a close below 99.390 to confirm a break

of the 100-DMA and target 99.300-310. Bulls continue to look for a close above

99.450 to confirm a shift in focus to 99.469-520 where the 55-WMA and 200-DMA

are noted.

EURIBOR TECHS: (M18) Below 100.305 Targets 100.285-295

*RES 4: 100.340 - High Oct 10 2016 

*RES 3: 100.325 - High Oct 19 2016, High Dec 15 

*RES 2: 100.320 - Repeated Daily highs Dec 

*RES 1: 100.315 - Repeated Daily highs Feb

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.310

*SUP 1: 100.308 - 100-DMA

*SUP 2: 100.305 - Lows Dec 4 & 5, Bollinger band base

*SUP 3: 100.295 - Low Dec 1

*SUP 4: 100.285 - Repeated Daily lows Oct

*COMMENTARY: The 100.305 support again confirmed significance with the dip below

the 100-DMA and bull channel base bouncing from this level last week. The

100.320-325 resistance region remains key. Bulls look for a close above 100.325

to target 100.340-343 where the bull channel top is noted. Bears continue to

look for a close below 100.305 to end bullish hopes and target 100.285-295.

     US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (H18) 121-23/122-20 Resistance Region Key

*RES 4: 122-20 Low Jan 12 now resistance

*RES 3: 122-05+ Hourly resistance Feb 6a

*RES 2: 121-23 Hourly resistance Feb 6

*RES 1: 121-08 Hourly support Feb 9 now resistance

*PRICE: 120-24+ @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 120-17 2018 Low Feb 8

*SUP 2: 120-13+ Bollinger band base

*SUP 3: 119-24 Low Apr 21 2011

*SUP 4: 118-24 Low Apr 13 2011

*COMMENTARY: Bulls failed to capitalise on the bullish key day reversal with the

contract rejected ahead of 122-20 last week. The break below 121-10+ reconfirmed

initial focus to 2018 lows and then below 120-17 to target the 117-29/119-24

support region where levels last seen in 2011 are noted. Bulls need a close

above 121-23+ to gain breathing room and above 122-20 to shift initial focus to

123-05+/20 where the 55-DMA (123-05+) is noted.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Double Daily Top, 2.741 Support Key

*RES 4: 3.073 - Low July 6 2011 now resistance 

*RES 3: 3.041 - 2014 High Jan 2 

*RES 2: 2.912 - High Jan 15 2014 

*RES 1: 2.885 - 2018 High Feb 6

*PRICE: 2.857 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 2.786 - Low Feb 9 

*SUP 2: 2.741 - Hourly support Feb 6 

*SUP 3: 2.707 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 4: 2.691 - Hourly support Feb 6a

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in the recovery from the sell-off with the yield

recovering from around the 21-DMA last week to retain pressure on 2018 highs.

Immediate focus has returned to 2.885-912 with overall focus on 2014 highs.

Bears need a close below 2.741 to confirm an easing of bullish pressure and to

shift initial focus back to 2.691-707 where the 21-DMA is located. O/B daily

studies looking to correct remain the key concern for bulls.

     EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: Below 200-WMA To Target 2017 Low

*RES 4: 3474.86 Low Feb 5 now resistance 

*RES 3: 3469.23 Low Jan 2 now resistance 

*RES 2: 3428.11 Hourly resistance Feb 8 

*RES 1: 3362.23 Hourly resistance Feb 9

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3325.99

*SUP 1: 3306.66 2018 Low Feb 9 

*SUP 2: 3295.82 100-WMA 

*SUP 3: 3293.70 200-WMA 

*SUP 4: 3214.31 2017 Low Feb 8

*COMMENTARY: Despite bouncing Wednesday bulls failed to trouble the 3469.23

resistance with bears taking comfort in fresh 2018 lows Friday. Bears now look

for a close below the 200-WMA to target 2017 lows. O/S daily studies remain the

key concern for bears. Layers of resistance are accumulating and weighing. Bulls

continue to look for a close above 3362.23 to ease bearish pressure & above

3474.86 to initially targets DMAs clustered 3550.17-3584.78.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]