MNI European Morning FI Technical Analysis

10 April 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts

BUND TECHS: (M18) 158.89 Support Remains Key

*RES 4: 160.98 Monthly High Dec 11

*RES 3: 160.26 Low Dec 13 now resistance

*RES 2: 160.14 Bollinger band top

*RES 1: 159.69 High Mar 28

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 159.46

*SUP 1: 159.15 Low Apr 6

*SUP 2: 158.89 Low Apr 5

*SUP 3: 158.53 Hourly resistance Mar 22 now support

*SUP 4: 158.35 High Mar 16 now support

*COMMENTARY: Bears failed to capitalise on rejections around 159.69 last week

with the bounce and bullish close Friday seeing immediate pressure on this

level. The 159.69-160.26 resistance region is key with bulls needing a close

above to confirm a break of the channel top and initially target 160.98 Dec

highs. Bears still need a close below 158.89 to pressure the key 158.17-55

support region where the bull channel base, 21 & 55-DMAs are noted.

     BOBL TECHS: (M18) Hesitating Ahead Of Key Resistance

*RES 4: 131.482 Bollinger band top 

*RES 3: 131.450 High Jan 23 (Cont) 

*RES 2: 131.310 High Apr 3 

*RES 1: 131.237 100-WMA (Cont)

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 131.160

*SUP 1: 131.110 Low Apr 6

*SUP 2: 131.040 Low Apr 5

*SUP 3: 130.860 Hourly resistance Mar 22 now support

*SUP 4: 130.846 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 3mth highs lacked follow through above the 100-WMA last

Tuesday with M18 looking a little offered and dipping Thursday. Bears now look

for a close below 131.040 to add weight to the case for a test of 130.760-849

where 21 & 100-DMAs are found. Bulls continue look for a close above 131.310 to

end bearish hopes, confirm a break of the 100-WMA and focus on 131.450-583 where

the 200-WMA is found.

     SCHATZ TECHS: (M18) 111.905 Support Now Key

*RES 4: 112.065 Monthly Low Sept 21 now resistance (Cont) 

*RES 3: 112.050 2018 High Mar 5 (Cont) 

*RES 2: 111.990 Monthly High Mar 28 

*RES 1: 111.960 High Apr 4

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 111.920

*SUP 1: 111.905 Low Apr 9 

*SUP 2: 111.864 100-DMA 

*SUP 3: 111.855 Low Mar 15 

*SUP 4: 111.830 Low Mar 14

*COMMENTARY: Topside hesitation has taken its toll resulting in a dip below the

21-DMA (111.911). Bears now need a close below 111.905 to confirm a break of the

21-DMA and to target layers of support 111.784-111.864 where key 55 & 100-DMAs

are located. The 111.960-990 resistance region is key this week. Bulls need a

close above 111.990 to kick start bullish momentum and reconfirm focus on

112.050-065.

     GILT TECHS: (M18) 21-DMA & 122.59 Levels Key

*RES 4: 123.57 Low Dec 1 now resistance 

*RES 3: 123.48 Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 2: 123.03 High Apr 4 

*RES 1: 122.59 Low Apr 4 now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 122.35

*SUP 1: 122.10 Low Apr 6 

*SUP 2: 121.95 21-DMA 

*SUP 3: 121.38 Daily Bull channel base off Feb low 

*SUP 4: 121.36 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of the daily bull channel top has taken its toll

with the contract now flirting with the 100-DMA (122.34). The 21-DMA is key

support this week with bears needing a close below to confirm focus on

120.69-121.38 where the 55-DMA and daily bull channel base are located. While

the 21-DMA supports bulls remain focused on the channel top with a close above

122.59 needed to gain breathing room.

     SHORT-STERLING TECHS: (M18) 99.120-150 Resistance Key This Week

*RES 4: 99.200 Repeated daily highs Mar

*RES 3: 99.170 High Mar 21

*RES 2: 99.150 Alternating daily support/resistance

*RES 1: 99.120 Low Mar 26 now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.110

*SUP 1: 99.075 2018 Low Apr 4

*SUP 2: 99.060 Monthly Low June 23 2016

*SUP 3: 99.003 Weekly Bear channel base

*SUP 4: 98.990 Monthly Low May 31 2016

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in the correction back towards the 99.120-150

resistance region with the 21-DMA noted at 99.139. Bulls still need a close

above 99.120 gain breathing room and above 99.150 remains needed to shift focus

back to 99.200-220 where the 55-DMA (99.200) is noted. While 99.120 caps

immediate focus remains on 98.930 April 2016 monthly lows.

     EURIBOR TECHS: (Z18) 100.285 Support Remains Key

*RES 4: 100.340 - High Oct 10 2016 

*RES 3: 100.325 - High Oct 19 2016, High Dec 15 

*RES 2: 100.320 - Repeated Daily highs Dec 

*RES 1: 100.305 - 2018 High Mar 27 & 28, Apr 6 & 9

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.300

*SUP 1: 100.295 - Repeated daily lows Mar, 21-DMA

*SUP 2: 100.290 - Highs Mar 13 & 14 now support

*SUP 3: 100.285 - Low Mar 15

*SUP 4: 100.273 - 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Continued hesitation around 2018 highs has taken its toll with the

contract continuing to dip back to initial support. In saying that, bears

continue to look for a close below 100.285 to confirm an easing of bullish

pressure. 55 & 100-DMAs are noted 100.267-273 with a close below the 100-DMA

needed to shift initial focus back to 100.250.

     US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (M18) 120-11 & 121-12 Levels Key This Week

*RES 4: 122-02  Monthly High Feb 6

*RES 3: 121-30+ 100-DMA

*RES 2: 121-12  High Apr 2

*RES 1: 121-05  High Apr 4

*PRICE: 120-24+ @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 120-23  Low Apr 9

*SUP 2: 120-17+ 55-DMA

*SUP 3: 120-16+ Low Apr 5

*SUP 4: 120-11  Low Mar 26 & 27

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort from support emerging around the 21-DMA

(120-19+) last week and providing the base for a bounce Friday. The 120-11

support remains key this week. Bears still need a close below 120-11 to confirm

a break of DMAs & shift focus back to 119-14/21+. The 121-12 resistance remains

key also. Bulls need a close above this level to kick start topside momentum and

initially target 121-31+/122-02.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 2.859 Resistance Key This Week

*RES 4: 2.936 - High Feb 21 

*RES 3: 2.889 - High Mar 22 

*RES 2: 2.859 - High Mar 27 

*RES 1: 2.838 - High Apr 5

*PRICE: 2.808 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 2.768 - Low Apr 6 

*SUP 2: 2.748 - Low Apr 4 

*SUP 3: 2.717 - Low Apr 2 

*SUP 4: 2.648 - Monthly Low Feb 6

*COMMENTARY: The yield continues to trade below 21 (2.817) & 55 (2.817) DMAs,

although follow through has been lacking, with bears now needing a close below

2.768 to add weight to the case for a test of 2.609-648 where the 100-DMA

(2.641) is found. The 2.859 resistance remains key this week. Bulls need a close

above to shift initial focus to tests of 2018 highs. Correcting O/S studies

remain a concern for bears.

     EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: Capped On Approach To 55-DMA

*RES 4: 3499.09 100-DMA 

*RES 3: 3476.21 High Feb 27 

*RES 2: 3448.63 High Mar 16 

*RES 1: 3438.20 55-DMA

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3414.85

*SUP 1: 3383.17 Alternating daily support/resistance 

*SUP 2: 3300.81 Low Apr 4 

*SUP 3: 3261.86 2018 Low Mar 26 

*SUP 4: 3252.29 High Feb 8 2017 now support

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from 2018 lows remains capped ahead of the 55-DMA.

Bulls now need a close above 3448.63 to confirm a break of the 55-DMA and above

3523.28 to shift focus to 2018 highs. Bears hold the advantage while the 55-DMA

caps but continue to look for a close below 3383.17 to return initial focus to

2018 lows.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]