MNI European Morning FI Technical Analysis

13 April 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts

BUND TECHS: (M18) Bears Now Need Close Below 21-DMA

*RES 4: 160.98 Monthly High Dec 11

*RES 3: 160.26 Low Dec 13 now resistance

*RES 2: 160.07 Bollinger band top

*RES 1: 159.69 High Mar 28

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 159.25

*SUP 1: 158.89 Low Apr 5

*SUP 2: 158.82 21-DMA

*SUP 3: 158.53 Hourly resistance Mar 22 now support

*SUP 4: 158.35 High Mar 16 now support

*COMMENTARY: Sideways trading 158.89-159.69 continues with daily studies

correcting from O/B. Bulls look for a close above 159.69 to kick start topside

momentum and above 160.26 to initially target 160.98 Dec highs. Bears now need a

close below the 21-DMA to pressure the key 158.12-53 support region where the

bull channel base, and 100-DMA are situated. Overall below the 55-DMA (157.24)

hints at a move back to 2018 lows.

     BOBL TECHS: (M18) 130.760 Support Now Key

*RES 4: 131.450 High Jan 23 (Cont) 

*RES 3: 131.433 Bollinger band top 

*RES 2: 131.310 High Apr 3 

*RES 1: 131.217 100-WMA (Cont)

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 131.110

*SUP 1: 130.953 21-DMA

*SUP 2: 130.811 100-DMA

*SUP 3: 130.804 55-WMA

*SUP 4: 130.760 High Mar 19 now support

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 3mth highs lacked follow through above the 100-WMA last

Tuesday with the topside failures that followed resulting in a break lower and

bears now focused on 130.760. The bounce from the 21-DMA was less than ideal and

buys bulls breathing room but a close above 131.310 is needed to kick start

bullish momentum and initially target 131.450. Bears need a close below the

21-DMA to add weight to their case.

     SCHATZ TECHS: (M18) Hesitating Around 21-DMA

*RES 4: 112.050 2018 High Mar 5 (Cont) 

*RES 3: 111.990 Monthly High Mar 28 

*RES 2: 111.945 Highs Apr 5 & 6 

*RES 1: 111.920 21-DMA

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 111.905

*SUP 1: 111.857 100-DMA 

*SUP 2: 111.855 Low Mar 15 

*SUP 3: 111.848 Bollinger band base 

*SUP 4: 111.830 Low Mar 14

*COMMENTARY: Pressure has returned to the 21-DMA with bulls now needing a close

above 111.945 to confirm traction above and shift initial focus back to

111.990-992 where the Bollinger top is noted. Bears continue to look for a close

below 111.855 to confirm a break of the 100-DMA and hint at a move back to the

55-DMA (111.792) with below 111.830 to confirm a break of the channel base and

add weight to the case.

     GILT TECHS: (M18) Initial Focus Shifts To 55-DMA

*RES 4: 123.57 Low Dec 1 now resistance 

*RES 3: 123.03 High Apr 4 

*RES 2: 122.84 High Apr 11 

*RES 1: 122.09 21-DMA

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 121.97

*SUP 1: 121.55 Daily Bull channel base off Feb low 

*SUP 2: 121.33 55-DMA 

*SUP 3: 121.13 Bollinger band base 

*SUP 4: 121.04 Low Mar 22

*COMMENTARY: The most recent lack of topside follow through has resulted in a

close below the 21-DMA with focus having shifted to the 121.33-55 region where

the daily bull channel base off Feb lows and the 55-DMA are situated. The 21-DMA

is now initial resistance with bulls needing a close above to gain breathing

room and hint at a bounce back to 122.84-123.05 where Apr highs so far are

found.

     SHORT-STERLING TECHS: (M18) Pressure On Initial Support

*RES 4: 99.200 Repeated daily highs Mar

*RES 3: 99.170 High Mar 21

*RES 2: 99.150 Alternating daily support/resistance

*RES 1: 99.129 21-DMA

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.105

*SUP 1: 99.100 High Apr 6 now support

*SUP 2: 99.075 2018 Low Apr 4

*SUP 3: 99.060 Monthly Low June 23 2016

*SUP 4: 99.003 Weekly Bear channel base

*COMMENTARY: The correction from 2018 lows is now struggling having remained

capped ahead of the 21-DMA and the 99.129-150 resistance region. Bulls look for

a close above 99.150 to shift focus back to 99.189-220 where the 55-DMA (99.189)

is noted. Bears need a close below 99.100 to gain breathing room and below

99.060 to reconfirm the bearish bias and maintain focus on 98.930 April 2016

monthly lows.

     EURIBOR TECHS: (Z18) 100.285 Support Remains Key

*RES 4: 100.340 - High Oct 10 2016 

*RES 3: 100.325 - High Oct 19 2016, High Dec 15 

*RES 2: 100.320 - Repeated Daily highs Dec 

*RES 1: 100.305 - 2018 High Mar 27 & 28, Apr 6 & 9

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.300

*SUP 1: 100.290 - Highs Mar 13 & 14 now support

*SUP 2: 100.285 - Low Mar 15

*SUP 3: 100.276 - 55-DMA

*SUP 4: 100.268 - 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Continued hesitation around 2018 highs has taken its toll with the

contract flirting with the 21-DMA (100.297). Bears continue to look for a close

below 100.285 to confirm an easing of bullish pressure. 55 & 100-DMAs are noted

100.268-276 with a close below the 100-DMA still needed to end bearish hopes and

to shift initial focus back to 100.250. Bulls need a close above 100.305 to

target 100.320-340.

     US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (M18) Bears Need Close Below 120-11

*RES 4: 121-12  High Apr 2

*RES 3: 121-05  High Apr 4

*RES 2: 120-24  Hourly support Apr 12 now resistance

*RES 1: 120-20+ Hourly resistance Apr 12

*PRICE: 120-19 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 120-11  Low Mar 26 & 27

*SUP 2: 120-03  Low Mar 22

*SUP 3: 120-00+ Bollinger band base

*SUP 4: 119-21+ Repeated Daily lows Feb

*COMMENTARY: The close below the 55-DMA (120-15+) sees immediate pressure back

on 120-11. Bears look for a close below 120-11 to confirm traction below DMAs &

shift focus back to 119-14/21+. Resistance layers are accumulating with bulls

now needing a close above Y120-24 to gain breathing room. Above121-12 is needed

to kick start topside momentum and initially target 121-31+/122-02.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Above 2.859 To Target 2018 High

*RES 4: 2.957 - 2018 High Feb 21 

*RES 3: 2.936 - High Feb 21 

*RES 2: 2.889 - High Mar 22 

*RES 1: 2.859 - High Mar 27

*PRICE: 2.821 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 2.812 - Hourly support Apr 12 

*SUP 2: 2.799 - Hourly resistance Apr 12 now support 

*SUP 3: 2.748 - Low Apr 4 

*SUP 4: 2.729 - Bollinger band base

*COMMENTARY: The aggressive rally and bullish close Thursday sees bulls gain

breathing room and pressure return to 2.859. The 2.859 resistance remains key

this week. Bulls need a close above to shift initial focus to tests of 2018

highs. Support layers building add to bullish confidence. Bears now look for a

close below 2.799 to gain breathing room and return initial focus to 2.717-748

where the Bollinger band base is noted.

     EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: Pressure Back On Initial Resistance

*RES 4: 3511.25 200-DMA 

*RES 3: 3496.65 100-DMA 

*RES 2: 3476.21 High Feb 27 

*RES 1: 3448.63 High Mar 16

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3443.97

*SUP 1: 3399.97 Low Apr 6 

*SUP 2: 3383.17 Alternating daily support/resistance 

*SUP 3: 3300.81 Low Apr 4 

*SUP 4: 3261.86 2018 Low Mar 26

*COMMENTARY: Bulls continue to look for a close above 3448.63 to confirm

traction above the 55-DMA and above 3523.28 to confirm breaks of 100 & 200-DMAs

& shift focus to 2018 highs. The 3383.17-3399.97 support region remains key.

Bears need a close below 3399.97 to ease bullish pressure and below 3383.17 to

shift focus back to 2018 lows. Daily studies approaching O/B are a concern for

bulls.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]