Trial now
BUNDS

Manufacturing PMIs the early focus

BOE

Split vote expected this week

18 April 2018
By Kyle Shortland
     
Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis
Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts
BUND TECHS: (M18) Bulls Focused On 159.69 Resistance
*RES 4: 160.91 Daily Bull channel top
*RES 3: 160.26 Low Dec 13 now resistance
*RES 2: 160.00 Bollinger band top
*RES 1: 159.69 High Mar 28
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 159.39
*SUP 1: 158.83 Bull channel base off Feb 15 Low
*SUP 2: 158.74 Low Apr 16
*SUP 3: 158.53 Hourly resistance Mar 22 now support
*SUP 4: 158.35 High Mar 16 now support
*COMMENTARY: Bears failed to capitalise on the break of 158.89 with the contract
bouncing ahead of the bull channel base off Feb 15 lows Monday. Above 159.37
buys bulls breathing room with a close above 159.69 to reconfirm focus on
160.26-98. Bears now need a close below 158.74 to ease bullish pressure and
below 158.17 to shift immediate focus to 157.34-67 and below the 157.34 to break
the 55-DMA (157.35) & initially target 156.22.
     BOBL TECHS: (M18) 130.760 & 131.310 Levels Remain Key
*RES 4: 131.450 High Jan 23 (Cont) 
*RES 3: 131.310 High Apr 3 
*RES 2: 131.240 High Apr 6 
*RES 1: 131.197 100-WMA (Cont)
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 131.180
*SUP 1: 130.900 Low Apr 10
*SUP 2: 130.816 55-WMA
*SUP 3: 130.778 100-DMA
*SUP 4: 130.760 High Mar 19 now support
*COMMENTARY: Bears failed to capitalise on dips below the 21-DMA (131.031) with
layers of support 130.760-816 where the 100-DMA and 55-WMA are noted. Bears need
a close below 130.760 to shift initial focus back to 130.380-510 where the
55-DMA and bull channel base off Feb lows are found. Bulls continue to look for
a close above 131.310 to kick start bullish momentum and initially focus on
131.450-621 where the bull channel top is situated.
     SCHATZ TECHS: (M18) 111.945 Resistance Remains Key
*RES 4: 111.990 Monthly High Mar 28 
*RES 3: 111.984 Bollinger band top 
*RES 2: 111.945 Highs Apr 5 & 6 
*RES 1: 111.930 Highs Apr 10 & 13
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 111.915
*SUP 1: 111.875 Low Apr 12 
*SUP 2: 111.868 Bollinger band base 
*SUP 3: 111.850 100-DMA 
*SUP 4: 111.830 Low Mar 14
*COMMENTARY: Pressure has returned to the 21-DMA (111.926) with bulls needing a
close above 111.945 to confirm traction above and shift initial focus back to
111.984-990 where the Bollinger top is noted. Bears now look for a close below
the 100-DMA to hint at a move back to the 55-DMA (111.804) with below 111.830 to
add weight to the case. Daily studies at modestly O/S levels and the Bollinger
base are the key concerns for bears.
     GILT TECHS: (M18) Supported Ahead Of 55-DMA
*RES 4: 123.57 Low Dec 1 now resistance 
*RES 3: 123.03 High Apr 4 
*RES 2: 122.84 High Apr 11 
*RES 1: 122.14 High Apr 17
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 121.96
*SUP 1: 121.48 Low Apr 17 
*SUP 2: 121.34 55-DMA 
*SUP 3: 121.20 Bollinger band base 
*SUP 4: 121.04 Low Mar 22
*COMMENTARY: Traction on the break of the daily bull channel base (121.72) off
Feb lows has so far been lacking with bears continuing to look for a close below
the 55-DMA to confirm a break, hint at a move back to 119.29-83 and below 120.69
to confirm. Bulls now need a close above 122.14 to gain breathing room and hint
at a bounce back to 122.84-123.03 where Apr highs so far are found.
     SHORT-STERLING TECHS: (M18) Above 99.125 To Gain Breathing Room
*RES 4: 99.200 Repeated daily highs Mar
*RES 3: 99.170 High Mar 21
*RES 2: 99.150 Alternating daily support/resistance
*RES 1: 99.125 High Apr 17
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.120
*SUP 1: 99.095 Low Apr 13
*SUP 2: 99.075 2018 Low Apr 4
*SUP 3: 99.060 Monthly Low June 23 2016
*SUP 4: 99.003 Weekly Bear channel base
*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in the marginal close above the 21-DMA (99.118)
but now look for a close above 99.125 to gain breathing room and above 99.150 to
shift focus back to 99.170-220 where the 55-DMA (99.178) is noted. Bears need a
close below 99.095 to gain breathing room and below 99.060 to reconfirm the
bearish bias and maintain focus on 98.930 April 2016 monthly lows.
     EURIBOR TECHS: (Z18) Above 100.305 To Target 100.320-340
*RES 4: 100.340 - High Oct 10 2016 
*RES 3: 100.325 - High Oct 19 2016, High Dec 15 
*RES 2: 100.320 - Repeated Daily highs Dec 
*RES 1: 100.305 - 2018 High Mar 27 & 28, Apr 6 & 9
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.300
*SUP 1: 100.290 - Highs Mar 13 & 14 now support
*SUP 2: 100.285 - Low Mar 15
*SUP 3: 100.278 - 55-DMA
*SUP 4: 100.269 - 100-DMA
*COMMENTARY: Continued hesitation around 2018 highs sees the contract flirting
with the 21-DMA (100.300). Bears now look for a close below 100.290 to confirm
an easing of bullish pressure. 55 & 100-DMAs are noted 100.269-278 with a close
below the 100-DMA still needed to end bearish hopes and to shift initial focus
back to 100.250. Bulls need a close above 100.305 to target 100.320-340.
     US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (M18) 120-20+/24 Resistance Remains Key
*RES 4: 121-12  High Apr 2
*RES 3: 121-05  High Apr 4
*RES 2: 120-24  Hourly support Apr 12 now resistance
*RES 1: 120-20+ Hourly resistance Apr 12
*PRICE: 120-13+ @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: 120-07  Low Apr 16
*SUP 2: 120-03  Low Mar 22
*SUP 3: 120-01+ Bollinger band base
*SUP 4: 119-21+ Repeated Daily lows Feb
*COMMENTARY: The 120-20+/24 resistance region remains key this week following
the break below 120-11 Monday. Bulls need a close above Y120-24 to gain
breathing room and increase the likelihood of a bounce back to 121-05/12. Above
121-12 is needed to kick start topside momentum and initially target
121-24+/122-02 where the 100-DMA is noted. Bears now look for a close below
120-07 to confirm traction below DMAs & shift focus back to 119-14/21+.
     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 2.865 Resistance Now Key
*RES 4: 2.957 - 2018 High Feb 21 
*RES 3: 2.936 - High Feb 21 
*RES 2: 2.889 - High Mar 22 
*RES 1: 2.865 - High Apr 16
*PRICE: 2.836 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: 2.812 - Hourly support Apr 12 
*SUP 2: 2.799 - Hourly resistance Apr 12 now support 
*SUP 3: 2.748 - Low Apr 4 
*SUP 4: 2.730 - Bollinger band base
*COMMENTARY: Topside follow through was lacking on the marginal break of 2.859
with the yield drifting back towards initial support. Bears continue to look for
a close below 2.799 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA (2.811), gain breathing
room and return initial focus to 2.717-748 where the Bollinger band base is
noted. Bulls now look for a close above 2.865 to shift initial focus to tests of
2018 highs. The Bollinger band top (2.893) is the key concern for bulls.
     EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: Above 3523.28 To Target 2018 High
*RES 4: 3516.17 55-WMA 
*RES 3: 3510.88 200-DMA 
*RES 2: 3492.23 100-DMA 
*RES 1: 3498.47 Bollinger band top
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3477.91
*SUP 1: 3455.22 Hourly support Apr 17 
*SUP 2: 3435.58 Low Apr 16 
*SUP 3: 3411.63 Low Apr 11 
*SUP 4: 3399.97 Low Apr 6
*COMMENTARY: An aggressive rally Tuesday kick started bullish momentum and
reconfirmed immediate focus on 3498.47-3523.28 where key DMAs, the 55-WMA and
the Bollinger band top are located. O/B studies and the Bollinger top are key
concerns for bulls who need a close above 3523.28 to confirm breaks and shift
focus back to 2018 & 2017 highs. Bears need a close below 3435.58 to ease
bullish pressure.
--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]