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MNI European Morning FI Technical Analysis 

1 June 2018
By Kyle Shortland
Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis
Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts
BUND TECHS: (M18) Correcting O/B Studies Weighing
*RES 4: 164.15 2018 High May 29
*RES 3: 163.81 Hourly resistance May 29
*RES 2: 163.06 High May 30
*RES 1: 162.46 Alternating hourly support/resistance
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 161.75
*SUP 1: 160.95 Low May 31
*SUP 2: 160.29 High May 24 now support
*SUP 3: 159.84 High May 23 now support
*SUP 4: 159.45 21-DMA
*COMMENTARY: The contract gives back gains made early in the week with
correcting O/B daily studies weighing. The break of 161.34 lacked follow through
but bulls now need to see a close above 162.46 to gain breathing room and return
focus to 163.06-164.15. Note the weekly bear channel top off 2016 highs comes in
around 164.63. Bears now look for a close below 160.95 to add weight to the case
for a move back to 159.05-84 where 21 (159.62) & 55 (159.05) DMAs are situated.
     BOBL TECHS: (M18) Focus On 131.380-455 While 132.82 Caps
*RES 4: 133.410 2018 High May 29 
*RES 3: 133.120 High May 30 
*RES 2: 132.820 Hourly resistance May 30 
*RES 1: 132.580 High May 31
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 132.26
*SUP 1: 132.030 Alternating hourly support/resistance
*SUP 2: 131.750 High May 24 now support, Low May 28
*SUP 3: 131.620 High May 23 now support
*SUP 4: 131.455 21-DMA
*COMMENTARY: The contract continues to give back gains as correcting O/B studies
are adding weight to the case for a deeper sell-off. The break of 132.180 lacked
follow through but the contract remains heavy with bears now initially focused
on 131.380-455 where the 21-DMA is located. Bulls now need a close above 132.820
to gain breathing room and above 133.12 to reconfirm focus on 133.480-810.
     SCHATZ TECHS: (M18) Bulls Need Close Above 112.240
*RES 4: 112.405 Hourly resistance May 29 
*RES 3: 112.335 Alternating hourly support/resistance 
*RES 2: 112.240 Hourly resistance May 30 
*RES 1: 112.205 High May 31
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 112.110
*SUP 1: 112.090 Low May 31 
*SUP 2: 112.035 Low May 28 
*SUP 3: 111.994 21-DMA 
*SUP 4: 111.985 Low May 24
*COMMENTARY: A lack of topside follow through and a move looking a little
overdone combined to produce a correction lower Wed and further losses Thurs.
Correcting O/B daily studies are adding weight to the case for a deeper sell-off
and an increased risk of a test of 111.930-994 where 21 & 55-DMAs are found.
Bulls still need a close above 112.240 to gain breathing room and above 112.335
to reconfirm focus on 112.540-695 last seen in Mar/Apr 2017.
     GILT TECHS: (U18) 122.67 Support Remains Key
*RES 4: 125.69 Monthly High Dec 15 
*RES 3: 125.42 High Dec 27 
*RES 2: 124.67 High May 29 
*RES 1: 123.93 Hourly resistance May 29
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 123.46
*SUP 1: 122.80 Low May 31 
*SUP 2: 122.67 High May 28 now support 
*SUP 3: 121.86 High May 4 now support 
*SUP 4: 121.42 21-DMA
*COMMENTARY: Aggressive gains lacked follow through Tuesday which is less than
ideal for bulls given very O/B daily studies. Bulls focus their attention on the
125.42-69 region where Dec highs are noted. The 122.67 support remains key.
Bears now need a close below this level to ease bullish pressure and below
121.86 to shift focus back to 120.96-121.42 where 21, 55 & 100-DMAs are
situated. Bulls need a close above 123.93 to add support to their case.
     SHORT-STERLING TECHS: (M18) Bears Now Need Close Below 99.345
*RES 4: 99.403 Bollinger band top
*RES 3: 99.390 Lows Dec 5 & 8, Low Feb 8 now resistance
*RES 2: 99.385 2018 High May 23 & 29
*RES 1: 99.370 Lows May 28-30 now resistance
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.365
*SUP 1: 99.345 Low May 23
*SUP 2: 99.335 Lows May 21 & 22
*SUP 3: 99.325 Low May 17
*SUP 4: 99.322 21-DMA
*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 highs lacked follow through which is less than ideal
given O/B daily studies and the proximity of the Bollinger band top. The close
below 99.370 sees bears gain breathing room with a close below 99.345 to
pressure 99.316-325 where the 21-DMA is situated. Bulls now look for a close
above 99.385 to reconfirm the bullish bias and focus on 99.416-465 where the
100-WMA and weekly bear channel top are located.
     EURIBOR TECHS: (Z18) Above 55-DMA To Pressure 2018 High
*RES 4: 100.293 - 55-DMA 
*RES 3: 100.282 - 21-DMA 
*RES 2: 100.277 - 100-DMA 
*RES 1: 100.265 - High May 31
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.255
*SUP 1: 100.235 - Low May 31
*SUP 2: 100.215 - Low May 30
*SUP 3: 100.190 - 2018 Low May 29
*SUP 4: 100.185 - Monthly Low Sept 28
*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort as lost ground is recovered and a pop above the
200-DMA (100.259) Thursday. Support layers building increases the risk of a
break higher with bulls now needing a close above 100.295 to return pressure to
2018 highs. Bears now look for a close below 100.235 to end correction talk and
sees immediate focus back to 100.175-185.
     US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (U18) Bears Need Close Below 55-DMA
*RES 4: 121-12  Monthly High Apr (Cont)
*RES 3: 121-03  High May 30
*RES 2: 120-24  Hourly resistance May 30a
*RES 1: 120-16  Hourly resistance May 30
*PRICE: 120-02 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: 119-29  Hourly support May 29
*SUP 2: 119-21+ 55-DMA
*SUP 3: 119-11  Low May 28
*SUP 4: 119-05+ 21-DMA
*COMMENTARY: The lack of follow through on fresh 3mth highs is less than ideal
for bulls given O/B daily studies. The 55-DMA remains key support with bears
needing to hint at a move back to 2018 lows with below 118-30 to confirm a break
of the 21-DMA and add weight to the case. Bulls now need a close above 120-16 to
gain breathing room and above 121-12 to shift immediate focus to 122-02 and
overall focus to 123-23+/124-05+ where the 55-WMA is noted.
     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 2.922 Resistance Key Today
*RES 4: 2.976 - 21-DMA 
*RES 3: 2.955 - Low May 24 now resistance 
*RES 2: 2.922 - Low May 25 now resistance 
*RES 1: 2.904 - 55-DMA
*PRICE: 2.873 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: 2.821 - Hourly support May 30 
*SUP 2: 2.790 - Hourly support May 30a 
*SUP 3: 2.759 - Low May 29 
*SUP 4: 2.717 - Monthly Low Apr 2
*COMMENTARY: The break of the 21-WMA (2.845) & the bull channel base (2.867) off
2017 lows has lacked follow through with the closes above the 100-DMA (2.846)
buying bulls breathing room. The 2.922 resistance is key. Bulls need a close
above to hint at a move back to 2018 highs with above 3.014 needed to add
further support. While 2.922 caps bears remain focused on Apr lows but need a
close below 2.821 to gain breathing room.
     EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above 55-DMA
*RES 4: 3540.03 High May 28 
*RES 3: 3536.33 21-DMA 
*RES 2: 3470.74 55-DMA
*RES 1: 3455.15 High May 31
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3406.65
*SUP 1: 3383.17 Alternating daily support/resistance 
*SUP 2: 3372.87 100-WMA 
*SUP 3: 3313.50 200-WMA 
*SUP 4: 3300.50 Low Apr 4
*COMMENTARY: The sell-off from the failures ahead of 3600.36 gained traction
below the 55-DMA with immediate focus now on 3372.87-3383.67 where the 100-WMA
is located. Bears need a close below the 100-WMA to add weight to the case for a
test of 3261.86-3313.50 where 2018 lows and the 200-WMA are located. Bulls still
look for a close above the 55-DMA to ease bearish pressure and above 3566.53 to
pressure 3600.36 once more.
--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]
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