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5 June 2018
By Kyle Shortland
     
Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis
Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts
 
BUND TECHS: (U18) Bears Focused On 21 & 55-DMAs
*RES 4: 164.19 2018 High May 29
*RES 3: 163.03 High May 30
*RES 2: 162.15 High May 31
*RES 1: 161.32 High June 4
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 160.68
*SUP 1: 160.16 High May 24 now support
*SUP 2: 159.64 21-DMA
*SUP 3: 159.15 Low May 24
*SUP 4: 158.98 55-DMA
*COMMENTARY: U18 continues to give back last week's gains and remains offered as
O/B daily studies correct lower adding weight to the case for a test of
158.98-159.64 where 21 & 55-DMAs are located. Layers of resistance continue to
accumulate. Bulls now need a close above 161.32 to gain breathing room and above
163.03 to return immediate focus to tests of 2018 highs. Overall bears need a
close below 157.14 to confirm focus to tests of 2018 lows.
     BOBL TECHS: (U18) Bears Focused On 21 & 55-DMAs
*RES 4: 132.660 High May 30 
*RES 3: 132.370 Hourly resistance May 30 
*RES 2: 132.120 High May 31 
*RES 1: 131.840 High June 1
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 131.47
*SUP 1: 131.230 Low May 28
*SUP 2: 130.987 21-DMA
*SUP 3: 130.810 Low May 24
*SUP 4: 130.593 55-DMA
*COMMENTARY: The contract continues to give back gains as correcting O/B studies
are adding weight to the case for a deeper sell-off. Immediate bearish focus is
currently on the 131.230 support with a close below needed to pressure 21 &
55-DMAs. Resistance layers are following U18 lower adding weight to the bearish
case. Bulls now need a close above 132.12 to gain breathing room and return
focus to 132.660-970 where 2018 highs are noted.
     SCHATZ TECHS: (U18) Bulls Need Close Above 112.120
*RES 4: 112.350 Hourly resistance May 29 
*RES 3: 112.270 High May 30 
*RES 2: 112.155 Hourly resistance May 30 
*RES 1: 112.035 Hourly resistance May 31
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 111.980
*SUP 1: 111.960 Low June 1 
*SUP 2: 111.925 High May 24 now support 
*SUP 3: 111.893 21-DMA 
*SUP 4: 111.815 Alternating daily support/resistance
*COMMENTARY: A lack of topside follow through and a move looking a little
overdone combined to produce a correction lower Wed with losses continuing
Monday. Correcting O/B daily studies are adding weight to the case for a deeper
sell-off and an increased risk of a test of 111.783-893 where 21, 55 & 100-DMAs
are found. The 112.155 resistance is now key. Bulls need a close above this
level to gain breathing room and above 112.270 to shift focus back to 112.425.
     GILT TECHS: (U18) Correcting O/B Studies Weighing
*RES 4: 125.42 High Dec 27 
*RES 3: 124.67 High May 29 
*RES 2: 123.93 Hourly resistance May 29 
*RES 1: 123.17 High June 1
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 122.73
*SUP 1: 122.55 Low June 1 
*SUP 2: 121.86 High May 4 now support 
*SUP 3: 121.57 21-DMA 
*SUP 4: 121.28 55-DMA
*COMMENTARY: Aggressive gains lacked follow through last Tuesday which is less
than ideal for bulls given very O/B daily studies. Daily studies correcting from
O/B remain a key concern for bulls. Bulls now look for a close above 123.17 to
gain breathing room and above 123.93 to return immediate focus to 2018 highs.
While 123.17 caps bears focus on 120.96-121.57 where key DMAs are noted with a
close below 122.55 to add weight to their case.
     SHORT-STERLING TECHS: (M18) Bears Need Close Below 99.345
*RES 4: 99.404 Bollinger band top
*RES 3: 99.390 Lows Dec 5 & 8, Low Feb 8 now resistance
*RES 2: 99.385 2018 High May 23 & 29
*RES 1: 99.370 Lows May 28-30 now resistance
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.355
*SUP 1: 99.345 Low May 23
*SUP 2: 99.335 Lows May 21 & 22
*SUP 3: 99.331 21-DMA
*SUP 4: 99.325 Low May 17
*COMMENTARY: The lack of topside follow through on last week's 2018 highs has
resulted in the contract correcting lower. Bears continue to look for a close
below 99.345 to pressure 99.325-331 where the 21-DMA is situated. Below 99.325
then initially targets 99.279-300 where the 200-DMA is noted. Bulls now look for
a close above 99.385 to reconfirm the bullish bias and focus on 99.416-458 where
the 100-WMA and weekly bear channel top are located.
     EURIBOR TECHS: (Z18) Above 55-DMA To Pressure 2018 High
*RES 4: 100.310 - 2018 High Repeatedly May 
*RES 3: 100.305 - Repeated daily lows Apr/May 
*RES 2: 100.295 - Alternating daily support/resistance 
*RES 1: 100.293 - 55-DMA
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.285
*SUP 1: 100.275 - Low June 4
*SUP 2: 100.265 - High May 31 now support
*SUP 3: 100.255 - Low June 1
*SUP 4: 100.235 - Low May 31
*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort as lost ground is recovered and pressure returns
to the 55-DMA. Bulls continue to look for a close above 100.295 to confirm
breaks of DMAs and shift pressure back to 2018 highs. Support layers are
building with bears now needing a close below 100.265 to gain breathing room and
below 100.255 to shift focus back to 100.215-235.
     US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (U18) Below 118-30 To Pressure 2018 Lows
*RES 4: 120-24  Hourly resistance May 30a
*RES 3: 120-16  Hourly resistance May 30
*RES 2: 119-30+ Hourly resistance June 1
*RES 1: 119-19  Low June 1 now resistance
*PRICE: 119-16 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: 119-11  Low May 28
*SUP 2: 119-05+ 21-DMA
*SUP 3: 118-30  Low May 24
*SUP 4: 118-19  High May 22 now support
*COMMENTARY: The lack of follow through on fresh 3mth highs was less than ideal
last week given O/B daily studies. Bears now look for a close below 118-30 to
confirm a break of the 21-DMA and shift initial focus back to 2018 lows.
Correcting O/B studies are adding weight to the bearish case. Bulls now need a
close above 119-30 to gain breathing room and above 120-16 to shift immediate
focus to 121-03 highs from last week.
     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 2.902 Support Key Today
*RES 4: 3.050 - Low May 22 
*RES 3: 3.014 - Low May 24 now resistance 
*RES 2: 2.975 - 21-DMA 
*RES 1: 2.955 - Low May 24 now resistance
*PRICE: 2.938 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: 2.926 - High June 1 now support 
*SUP 2: 2.902 - Low June 4 
*SUP 3: 2.860 - Low June 1 
*SUP 4: 2.821 - Hourly support May 30
*COMMENTARY: The recovery from last week's low sees the yield pressuring the
21-DMA. Bulls now need a close above 3.014 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and
add support to the initial case for a retest of 2018 highs. Correcting O/S
studies add support to the bullish case. Bears now need a close below 2.902 to
gain breathing room and below 2.860 to reconfirm focus on 2.717-759 where Mar &
May lows are noted.
     EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: Topside Follow Through Lacking
*RES 4: 3540.03 High May 28 
*RES 3: 3528.87 21-DMA 
*RES 2: 3519.18 200-DMA
*RES 1: 3490.50 Hourly resistance May 28
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3469.57
*SUP 1: 3463.33 Low June 4 
*SUP 2: 3446.30 Hourly support June 1 
*SUP 3: 3420.84 Low June 1 
*SUP 4: 3383.17 Alternating daily support/resistance
*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in gains to start the new week although failure
to close above 55 (3472.88) & 100 (3476.70) DMAs is less than ideal. In saying
that, correcting O/S studies add support to the bullish case for a move back to
3519.18-3540.03 where 21 & 200-DMAs are noted. Initial support is noted at
3463.33 but bears need a close below 3446.30 to ease renewed bullish pressure
and return focus to 3383.17.
--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]