MNI European Morning FI Technical Analysis

7 June 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts

BUND TECHS: (U18) Below 159.70 To End Bullish Hopes

*RES 4: 163.03 High May 30

*RES 3: 162.15 High May 31

*RES 2: 161.75 High June 1

*RES 1: 160.68 Lows June 4 & 5 now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 159.95

*SUP 1: 159.77 200-WMA

*SUP 2: 159.70 High May 23 now support

*SUP 3: 159.09 55-DMA

*SUP 4: 158.23 High May 16 now support

*COMMENTARY: The sell-off from 2018 highs continues and currently pressures the

21-DMA (159.83) & 200-WMA. Bears now look for a close below 159.70 to confirm a

break of these levels and hint at a move back to 157.43-84 where Apr & May lows

and the rising weekly TL off 2018 lows is found. Daily studies correcting from

O/B have added weight to the bearish case. Bulls now need a close above 160.68

to gain breathing room and above 162.15 to hint at a move back to 2018 highs.

     BOBL TECHS: (U18) 131.430 Resistance Key Today

*RES 4: 132.370 Hourly resistance May 30 

*RES 3: 132.120 High May 31 

*RES 2: 131.860 High June 5 

*RES 1: 131.430 Low June 4 now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 131.16

*SUP 1: 131.078 21-DMA

*SUP 2: 130.810 Low May 24

*SUP 3: 130.646 55-DMA

*SUP 4: 130.590 Low May 22

*COMMENTARY: Pressure on the 131.430 support took its toll with a break and

close below that sees the contract flirting with the 21-DMA. A close below the

21-DMA hints at a move back to 129.98 with below 130.590 to confirm a break of

the 55-DMA and add weight to the case. Bulls now need a close above 131.430 to

gain breathing room and above 132.12 to return focus to 132.660-970 where 2018

highs are noted.

     SCHATZ TECHS: (U18) 112.155 Resistance Key Today

*RES 4: 112.155 Hourly resistance May 30 

*RES 3: 112.120 High May 31 

*RES 2: 112.065 High June 5 

*RES 1: 112.010 Hourly resistance June 6

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 111.945

*SUP 1: 111.925 High May 24 now support 

*SUP 2: 111.913 21-DMA 

*SUP 3: 111.815 Alternating daily support/resistance 

*SUP 4: 111.807 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: A lack of topside follow through and a move looking a little

overdone combined to produce a correction lower last Wed with losses continuing.

Correcting O/B daily studies are adding weight to the case for a deeper sell-off

and an increased risk of a test of 111.789-815 where 55 & 100-DMAs are found.

The 112.155 resistance remains key. Bulls need a close above this level to ease

bearish pressure and above 112.270 to shift focus back to 112.425.

     GILT TECHS: (U18) 122.43-123.17 Resistance Region Now Key

*RES 4: 124.67 High May 29 

*RES 3: 123.93 Hourly resistance May 29 

*RES 2: 123.17 High June 1 

*RES 1: 122.43 Low June 1 now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 121.91

*SUP 1: 121.64 21-DMA 

*SUP 2: 121.33 55-DMA 

*SUP 3: 120.96 100-DMA 

*SUP 4: 119.95 Monthly Low Apr 23

*COMMENTARY: Aggressive gains lacked follow through last week which is less than

ideal for bulls given very O/B daily studies. Daily studies correcting from O/B

remain a key concern for bulls. The close below 122.43 has left the contract

looking offered with focus now on key DMAs 120.96-121.64. Bulls now need a close

above 122.43 to gain breathing room and above 123.17 to return immediate focus

to 2018 highs.

     SHORT-STERLING TECHS: (U18) Bears Need Close Below 200-DMA

*RES 4: 99.350 100-WMA

*RES 3: 99.300 High May 25-30

*RES 2: 99.260 Lows May 25 & 30 now resistance

*RES 1: 99.233 21-DMA

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.210

*SUP 1: 99.192 200-DMA

*SUP 2: 99.140 Lows May 30 - Apr 3

*SUP 3: 99.131 100-DMA, 21-WMA

*SUP 4: 99.127 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The lack of topside follow through on last week's highs has

resulted in the contract correcting lower. Bears take comfort as the contract

gains traction below the 21-DMA. Bears now look for a close below 99.192 to

confirm initial focus on 99.127-140 where key DMA and WMAs are noted. The 21-DMA

is initial resistance but bulls need a close above 99.260 to gain breathing

room.

     EURIBOR TECHS: (Z18) Capped Ahead Of 55-DMA

*RES 4: 100.305 - Repeated daily lows Apr/May 

*RES 3: 100.295 - Alternating daily support/resistance 

*RES 2: 100.292 - 55-DMA 

*RES 1: 100.275 - Low June 4 & 5 now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.270

*SUP 1: 100.265 - High May 31 now support

*SUP 2: 100.255 - Low June 1

*SUP 3: 100.235 - Low May 31

*SUP 4: 100.215 - Low May 30

*COMMENTARY: The 55-DMA confirmed significance with the recovery from 2018 lows

remaining capped on approach. Bulls continue to look for a close above 100.295

to confirm breaks of DMAs and shift pressure back to 2018 highs. Support layers

are building with bears now needing a close below 100.265 to gain breathing room

and below 100.255 to shift focus back to 100.215-235.

     US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (U18) Below 118-30 To Pressure 2018 Lows

*RES 4: 120-24  Hourly resistance May 30a

*RES 3: 120-16  Hourly resistance May 30

*RES 2: 119-30+ Hourly resistance June 1

*RES 1: 119-16  Hourly resistance June 6

*PRICE: 119-10 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 119-06+ 21-DMA

*SUP 2: 118-30  Low May 24

*SUP 3: 118-19  High May 22 now support

*SUP 4: 118-09  Low May 21

*COMMENTARY: The lack of follow through on fresh 3mth highs was less than ideal

last week given O/B daily studies. Bears now look for a close below 118-30 to

confirm a break of the 21-DMA and shift initial focus back to 2018 lows.

Correcting O/B studies are adding weight to the bearish case. Bulls still need a

close above 119-30+ to gain breathing room and above 120-16 to shift immediate

focus to 121-03 highs from last week.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 3.014 Resistance Key Today

*RES 4: 3.128 - 2018 High May 18 

*RES 3: 3.084 - High May 21 

*RES 2: 3.050 - Low May 22 

*RES 1: 3.014 - High May 24

*PRICE: 2.977 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 2.946 - High June 4 now support 

*SUP 2: 2.900 - Low June 5 

*SUP 3: 2.860 - Low June 1 

*SUP 4: 2.821 - Hourly support May 30

*COMMENTARY: Having found support around the 55-DMA (2.911) the yield is now

pressuring the 21-DMA (2.975). Above 3.014 is needed to confirm a break of the

21-DMA and add support to the initial case for a retest of 2018 highs.

Correcting O/S studies add support to the bullish case. Bears now need a close

below 2.900 to ease bullish pressure and below 2.860 to reconfirm focus on

2.717-759 where Mar & May lows are noted.

     EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above 3497.32

*RES 4: 3519.30 200-DMA 

*RES 3: 3519.14 21-DMA

*RES 2: 3497.32 High June 5

*RES 1: 3470.51 High June 6

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3460.82

*SUP 1: 3434.35 Low June 6 

*SUP 2: 3420.84 Low June 1 

*SUP 3: 3383.17 Alternating daily support/resistance 

*SUP 4: 3379.53 100-WMA

*COMMENTARY: Correcting O/S daily studies remain the key concern for bears but

failure to gain traction on pops above 55 (3474.43) & 100 (3473.63) DMAs is less

than ideal. Bulls need a close above 3497.32 to confirm traction above 55 &

100-DMAs and above 3540.03 to confirm a break of the 200-DMA and return focus to

2018 highs. Bears now need a close below 3434.35 to ease renewed bullish

pressure and return focus to 3383.17.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]