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MNI BRIEF: BOJ Should Exit YCC, Raise Policy Rate - IMF Article IV

MNI BRIEF: Expect Easy Conditions After Neg Rates - BOJ's Ueda

MNI: PBOC Injects Net CNY53 Bln Via OMO Fri; Rates Unchanged

Bond Supply Calendar: BoE APF Operation on Monday

Recovery In Y/Y IP Continues In Line With Surveys

MNI BRIEF: Stabilizing Prices Helps BOC Turn Neutral-Freeland

MNI BRIEF: Canada Needs CAD1 Trln To Fix Housing Squeeze- CMHC

MNI BRIEF: Canada Shows No Progress Closing Housing Shortfall

MNI European Morning FI Technical Analysis 

11 June 2018
By Kyle Shortland
Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis
Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts
BUND TECHS: (U18) Support Emerging Ahead Of 55-DMA
*RES 4: 163.03 High May 30
*RES 3: 162.15 High May 31
*RES 2: 161.75 High June 1
*RES 1: 160.68 Lows June 4 & 5 now resistance
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 160.31
*SUP 1: 159.95 21-DMA
*SUP 2: 159.39 Low June 7
*SUP 3: 159.16 55-DMA
*SUP 4: 158.23 High May 16 now support
*COMMENTARY: Despite finding support ahead of the 55-DMA Thursday, topside
follow through remained absent to end the week. Bulls now look for a close above
161.13 to gain breathing room and above 162.15 to hint at a move back to 2018
highs. The 55-DMA is key support to start the week. Bears look for a close below
the 55-DMA to confirm immediate focus on 157.14-158.23 with below 157.14 to
target 154.33 Feb lows. Daily studies have now corrected to neutral levels.
     BOBL TECHS: (U18) Topside Follow Through Lacking
*RES 4: 132.370 Hourly resistance May 30 
*RES 3: 132.120 High May 31 
*RES 2: 131.860 High June 5 
*RES 1: 131.630 High June 8
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 131.400
*SUP 1: 131.250 Hourly support June 7
*SUP 2: 130.920 Low June 7
*SUP 3: 130.810 Low May 24
*SUP 4: 130.689 55-DMA
*COMMENTARY: Despite dipping below the 21-DMA Thursday bears failed to manage a
close below. The bounce Friday saw a break of 131.430 but topside follow through
remains absent. Bulls continue to look for a close above 132.120 to return focus
to 132.660-970 where 2018 highs are noted. Bears now need a close below 131.250
to reconfirm focus on 130.590-920 where the 55-DMA is located.
     SCHATZ TECHS: (U18) 112-065-155 Resistance Region Key
*RES 4: 112.270 High May 30 
*RES 3: 112.155 Hourly resistance May 30 
*RES 2: 112.120 High May 31 
*RES 1: 112.065 High June 5
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 112.045
*SUP 1: 111.985 Low June 8 
*SUP 2: 111.933 21-DMA 
*SUP 3: 111.910 Low June 7 
*SUP 4: 111.815 Alternating daily support/resistance
*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in the lack of traction below the 21-DMA on the
dip Thursday leaving bears needing a close below 111.910 to confirm a break and
immediate focus on 111.796-817 where 55 & 100-DMAs are located. Layers of
resistance remain 112.065-155 that are seen as key. Bulls need a close above
112.065 to gain breathing room and above 112.155 to shift focus back to
112.270-425 where 2018 highs are noted.
     GILT TECHS: (U18) Bulls Need Close Above 122.51
*RES 4: 123.93 Hourly resistance May 29 
*RES 3: 123.17 High June 1 
*RES 2: 122.51 High June 8 
*RES 1: 122.00 Hourly support June 8 now resistance
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 121.82
*SUP 1: 121.51 Low June 7 
*SUP 2: 121.35 55-DMA 
*SUP 3: 120.95 100-DMA 
*SUP 4: 119.95 Monthly Low Apr 23
*COMMENTARY: Despite bouncing from ahead of the 55-DMA, topside follow through
was lacking Friday leaving the contract looking offered. The 100-DMA is key
support this week. Bears need a close below the 100-DMA to confirm a break of
the 55-DMA and to confirm immediate focus on 119.95 Apr lows. Bulls now need a
close above 122.51 to gain breathing room and above 123.17 to return immediate
focus to 2018 highs.
     SHORT-STERLING TECHS: (U18) 200-DMA & 99.260 Levels Key
*RES 4: 99.350 100-WMA
*RES 3: 99.300 High May 25-30
*RES 2: 99.260 Lows May 25 & 30 now resistance
*RES 1: 99.240 High June 8
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.220
*SUP 1: 99.189 200-DMA
*SUP 2: 99.140 Lows May 30 - Apr 3
*SUP 3: 99.132 55-DMA, 21-WMA
*SUP 4: 99.131 100-DMA
*COMMENTARY: The lack of topside follow through on last week's highs has
resulted in the contract correcting lower. Bears take comfort in the 21-DMA
capping Friday and now look for a close below the 200-DMA to confirm initial
focus on 99.131-140 where key DMA and WMAs are noted. The 99.260 resistance
remains key this week. Bulls need a close above to gain breathing room and
return focus to 2018 highs.
     EURIBOR TECHS: (Z18) 100.275 Resistance Key Today
*RES 4: 100.290 - 55-DMA 
*RES 3: 100.275 - Low June 4 & 5 now resistance 
*RES 2: 100.265 - Alternating daily support/resistance 
*RES 1: 100.261 - 200-DMA
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.255
*SUP 1: 100.240 - Bollinger band base
*SUP 2: 100.235 - Low May 31
*SUP 3: 100.215 - Low May 30
*SUP 4: 100.190 - 2018 Low May 29
*COMMENTARY: The 55-DMA confirmed significance with the recovery from 2018 lows
remaining capped on approach. The failure ahead of the 55-DMA provided the
impetus for a sell-off and close below the 200-DMA that sees immediate focus on
the 100.215-240 support region where the Bollinger base is noted. Bulls now need
a close above 100.275 to gain breathing room and above 100.295 to return focus
to 2018 highs.
     US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (U18) 118-30 & 120-00+ Key This Week
*RES 4: 120-24  Hourly resistance May 30a
*RES 3: 120-16  Hourly resistance May 30
*RES 2: 120-00+ High June 7
*RES 1: 119-23  Hourly resistance June 8
*PRICE: 119-14 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: 119-08+ 21-DMA
*SUP 2: 119-04  Low June 7
*SUP 3: 118-30  Low May 24
*SUP 4: 118-19  High May 22 now support
*COMMENTARY: The dip below 21-DMA was aggressively reversed although so far
bulls have failed to gain traction above the 100-DMA (119-26+). Bulls now need a
close above 120-00+ to confirm traction above the 100-DMA and add support to the
case for a move back to 121-03/12+.The 118-30 support remains key this week.
Bears continue to look for a close below to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and
shift initial focus back to 2018 lows.
     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 2.884 & 3.014 Levels Now Key
*RES 4: 3.050 - Low May 22 
*RES 3: 3.014 - High May 24 
*RES 2: 2.994 - High June 7 
*RES 1: 2.967 - Hourly support June 7 now resistance
*PRICE: 2.957 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: 2.921 - Hourly support June 8 
*SUP 2: 2.884 - Low June 7 
*SUP 3: 2.860 - Low June 1 
*SUP 4: 2.821 - Hourly support May 30
*COMMENTARY: Failure to take out 3.014 resulted in a sell-off Thursday and dips
below the 55-DMA (2.911). Bears now need a close below 2.884 lows from Thursday
to confirm a break of the 55-DMA and to return focus to 2.717-759 where Mar &
May lows are noted. Daily momentum studies are back at neutral levels and ready
for a fresh leg lower. Bulls need a close above 3.014 to confirm a break of the
21-DMA and target 2018 highs.
     EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: 3497.32-3540.03 Resistance Region Key
*RES 4: 3519.42 200-DMA 
*RES 3: 3508.07 21-DMA
*RES 2: 3497.32 High June 5
*RES 1: 3454.12 High June 8
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3447.30
*SUP 1: 3422.03 Low June 8 
*SUP 2: 3420.84 Low June 1 
*SUP 3: 3383.17 Alternating daily support/resistance 
*SUP 4: 3379.43 100-WMA
*COMMENTARY: Correcting O/S daily studies remain the key concern for bears but
failure to gain traction on pops above 55 (3476.14) & 100 (3470.35) DMAs is less
than ideal. Bulls need a close above 3497.32 to confirm traction above 55 &
100-DMAs and above 3540.03 to confirm a break of the 200-DMA and return focus to
2018 highs. Bears look for a close below 3420.84 to return focus to 3383.17.
--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]
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