MNI European Morning FI Technical Analysis

14 June 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts

BUND TECHS: (U18) 55-DMA Support Remains Key

*RES 4: 162.15 High May 31

*RES 3: 161.75 High June 1

*RES 2: 160.68 Lows June 4 & 5 now resistance

*RES 1: 160.22 High June 11

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 159.80

*SUP 1: 159.37 Low June 12

*SUP 2: 159.25 55-DMA

*SUP 3: 158.23 High May 16 now support

*SUP 4: 157.91 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Immediate focus remains on the 55-DMA with support continuing to

emerge on approach. Bears still need a close below the 55-DMA to confirm

immediate focus on 157.14-158.23 where the 100-DMA is noted, with below 157.14

to target 154.33 Feb lows. Daily studies approaching O/S are the key concern for

bears. Initial resistance remains at 160.22 with bulls needing a close above to

gain breathing room and confirm a break above the 21-DMA (160.21).

     BOBL TECHS: (U18) Above 131.340 To Gain Breathing Room

*RES 4: 131.630 High June 8 

*RES 3: 131.340 High June 11 

*RES 2: 131.264 21-DMA 

*RES 1: 131.190 High June 13

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 131.070

*SUP 1: 130.900 Low June 12

*SUP 2: 130.810 Low May 24

*SUP 3: 130.736 55-DMA

*SUP 4: 130.590 Low May 22

*COMMENTARY: Bears focus on the 130.590-900 support region where the 55-DMA is

located. Bears then look for a close below 130.590 to initially pressure the

100-DMA (130.338) with overall focus on 129.980 Apr lows. Bulls need a close

above 131.340 to gain breathing room and above 132.120 to return focus to

132.660-970 where 2018 highs are noted. Daily studies approaching O/S is a

concern for bears.

     SCHATZ TECHS: (U18) 111.985 Key Today

*RES 4: 111.985 Low June 8 now resistance 

*RES 3: 111.975 Hourly support June 11 now resistance 

*RES 2: 111.960 21-DMA 

*RES 1: 111.940 High June 13

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 111.900

*SUP 1: 111.828 55-DMA 

*SUP 2: 111.815 Alternating daily support/resistance 

*SUP 3: 111.802 100-DMA 

*SUP 4: 111.714 Bollinger band base

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation at 112.065 resulted in losses this week with bears

focused on 111.802-828 where 55 & 100-DMAs are situated. Daily studies

approaching O/S is a concern for bears. Bulls now need a close above 111.985 to

gain breathing room. Above 112.065 is then needed to hint at a move back to

112.270-425 where 2018 highs are noted with above 112.155 to confirm.

     GILT TECHS: (U18) 122.51 Resistance Key Today

*RES 4: 123.64 High May 30 

*RES 3: 123.17 High June 1 

*RES 2: 122.51 High June 8 

*RES 1: 122.25 High June 13

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 122.16

*SUP 1: 121.68 Hourly support June 12 

*SUP 2: 121.41 55-DMA 

*SUP 3: 120.94 100-DMA 

*SUP 4: 119.95 Monthly Low Apr 23

*COMMENTARY: A marginal dip below the 55-DMA lacked follow through Tuesday with

hesitation around the 55-DMA less than ideal. The 100-DMA is key support this

week. Bears need a close below the 100-DMA to confirm a break of the 55-DMA and

to confirm immediate focus on 119.95 Apr lows. Bulls need a close above 122.51

to add support to the case for the break of 123.64 needed to return focus to

124.67.

     SHORT-STERLING TECHS: (U18) 200-DMA & 99.260 Levels Key

*RES 4: 99.346 100-WMA

*RES 3: 99.300 High May 25-30

*RES 2: 99.260 Lows May 25 & 30 now resistance

*RES 1: 99.241 21-DMA

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.230

*SUP 1: 99.186 200-DMA

*SUP 2: 99.141 55-DMA

*SUP 3: 99.140 Lows May 30 - Apr 3

*SUP 4: 99.131 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The lack of topside follow through on last week's highs has

resulted in the contract correcting lower. Bears take comfort in the 21-DMA

capping and now look for a close below the 200-DMA to confirm initial focus on

99.131-141 where key DMA and WMAs are noted. The 99.260 resistance remains key

this week. Bulls need a close above the 21-DMA to gain breathing room and above

99.260 to return focus to 2018 highs.

     EURIBOR TECHS: (Z18) 100-DMA Now Capping

*RES 4: 100.305 - Repeated daily lows Apr/May 

*RES 3: 100.295 - Alternating daily support/resistance 

*RES 2: 100.289 - 55-DMA 

*RES 1: 100.280 - 100-DMA

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.275

*SUP 1: 100.265 - High June 11 now support

*SUP 2: 100.245 - Lows June 7 & 8

*SUP 3: 100.242 - Bollinger band base

*SUP 4: 100.235 - Low May 31

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from 100.245 sees the contract pressuring the 100-DMA

with the 100.280-295 resistance region now key. Bulls need a close above 100.295

to confirm breaks of 55 & 100-DMAs and return focus to 100.305-310. Initial

support remains at 100.265 with bears needing a close below to ease pressure on

the 100-DMA and shift initial focus back to 100.245. Below 100.245 is needed to

target 100.185-215.

     US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (U18) 55-DMA Resistance Key Today

*RES 4: 120-16 Hourly resistance May 30

*RES 3: 120-00+ High June 7

*RES 2: 119-23 Hourly resistance June 8

*RES 1: 119-17+ 55-DMA, High Jan 12

*PRICE: 119-10 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 119-05  Hourly support June 13

*SUP 2: 118-29  Low June 13

*SUP 3: 118-19  High May 22 now support

*SUP 4: 118-09  Low May 21

*COMMENTARY: Bears failed to capitalise on the marginal break of the key 118-30

support with the contract lacking downside follow through. The 55-DMA remains

key today with bulls needing a close above to confirm a break of the bear

channel top off May highs and above 120-00+ to confirm traction above the

100-DMA (119-25+) and add support to the case for a move back to 121-03/12+.

Bears now need a close below 118-29+ to shift initial focus back to 2018 lows.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 3.014 Resistance Remains Key

*RES 4: 3.084 - High May 21 

*RES 3: 3.050 - Low May 22 

*RES 2: 3.014 - High May 24 

*RES 1: 2.985 - Hourly resistance June 13

*PRICE: 2.957 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 2.944 - Low June 12 

*SUP 2: 2.921 - Hourly support June 8 

*SUP 3: 2.884 - Low June 7 

*SUP 4: 2.860 - Low June 1

*COMMENTARY: The 3.014 resistance reconfirmed significance with the yield capped

ahead of this level and looking a little offered. The 2.944 support is key today

with bears needing a close below to ease bullish pressure and return focus to

2.884. Below this level confirms a break of the 55-DMA (2.921) and sees bears

targeting 2.717-759 where Mar & May lows are noted. Bulls still need a close

above 3.014 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA (2.962) and target 2018 highs.

     EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: Capped Ahead Of 3497.32 For Now

*RES 4: 3540.03 High May 28 

*RES 3: 3520.53 200-DMA 

*RES 2: 3497.32 High June 5

*RES 1: 3495.68 21-DMA

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3479.56

*SUP 1: 3454.12 High June 8 now support 

*SUP 2: 3422.03 Low June 8 

*SUP 3: 3420.84 Low June 1 

*SUP 4: 3383.17 Alternating daily support/resistance

*COMMENTARY: The 3497.32 resistance remains key having capped Tuesday with the

21 & 200-DMAs and 55-WMA (3410.98) just above. Bulls need a close above the

200-DMA to initially hint at a move back to 3600.36 with above 3540.03 to

confirm. Bears look for a close below 3454.12 to gain breathing room, below

3420.84 to return focus to 3383.17, and below this level to shift focus back to

2018 lows.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]