MNI European Morning FI Technical Analysis

20 June 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts

BUND TECHS: (U18) Below 21-DMA To Ease Bullish Pressure

*RES 4: 163.03 High May 30

*RES 3: 162.70 Bollinger band top

*RES 2: 162.15 High May 31, 100-WMA

*RES 1: 161.86 High June 19

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 161.50

*SUP 1: 161.41 High June 18 now support

*SUP 2: 160.85 Hourly resistance June 15 now support

*SUP 3: 160.76 21-DMA

*SUP 4: 160.22 High June 11 now support

*COMMENTARY: Support emerging ahead of the 55-DMA combined with daily studies

correcting from O/S provided the catalyst for an aggressive rally that eased

bearish pressure last week. Bulls look for a close above 162.15 to confirm focus

on 163.03-164.19. Daily studies remain well placed for gains. Bears now look for

a close below the 21-DMA to ease bullish pressure and below the 55-DMA to

confirm immediate focus on 157.14-158.23 where the 100-DMA (158.07) is noted.

     BOBL TECHS: (U18) Above 132.12 Targets 132.66-97

*RES 4: 132.660 High May 30 

*RES 3: 132.401 Bollinger band top 

*RES 2: 132.370 Hourly resistance May 30 

*RES 1: 132.120 High May 31

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 131.880

*SUP 1: 131.770 High June 18 now support

*SUP 2: 131.490 Hourly resistance June 14 now support

*SUP 3: 131.190 High June 13 now support

*SUP 4: 130.821 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The 55-DMA support confirmed significance with an aggressive bounce

from just ahead that sees focus back on 132.120. Bulls continue to look for a

close above 132.120 to confirm focus on a move back to 132.660-970. Daily

studies remain perfectly placed for a fresh leg higher. Bears now need a close

below 131.77 to gain breathing room and below 131.190 to shift focus back to

130.590-821 where the 55-DMA is situated.

     SCHATZ TECHS: (U18) Below 111.940 To Shift Focus Lower

*RES 4: 112.155 Hourly resistance May 30 

*RES 3: 112.120 High May 31 

*RES 2: 112.065 High June 5 

*RES 1: 112.040 High June 19

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 111.990

*SUP 1: 111.975 Hourly support June 14 

*SUP 2: 111.940 High June 13 now support 

*SUP 3: 111.865 Low June 14 

*SUP 4: 111.844 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Despite looking offered Thursday bulls gained breathing room with

an aggressive rally and bullish close that sees focus back on 112.065-155. Bulls

need a close above 112.065 to hint at a move back to 112.270-425 where 2018

highs are noted with above 112.155 to confirm. The 111.940 support remains key

this week. Bears need a close below 111.940 to ease renewed bullish pressure and

shift focus back to 111.813-865 where 55 & 100-DMAs are noted.

     GILT TECHS: (U18) Below 122.80 To Gain Breathing Room

*RES 4: 123.93 Hourly resistance May 29 

*RES 3: 123.86 Bollinger band top 

*RES 2: 123.64 High May 30 

*RES 1: 123.19 High June 19

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 123.04

*SUP 1: 122.80 High June 18 now support 

*SUP 2: 122.24 21-DMA 

*SUP 3: 122.14 Hourly support June 14 

*SUP 4: 121.68 Hourly support June 12

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in the pop above 123.17 but follow through

remains lacking. Bulls continue to look for a close above 123.64 to initially

target 124.67. Layers of support accumulating adds to bullish confidence. Bears

now need a close below 122.80 to gain breathing room and below 122.14 to shift

initial focus back to 121.33-73 where the 55-DMA (121.51) is located.

     SHORT-STERLING TECHS: (U18) Bulls Need Close Above 99.260

*RES 4: 99.343 100-WMA

*RES 3: 99.300 High May 25-30

*RES 2: 99.292 Bollinger band top

*RES 1: 99.260 Lows May 25 & 30 now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.250

*SUP 1: 99.230 Lows June 18 & 19

*SUP 2: 99.210 Low June 14

*SUP 3: 99.200 Lows June 6 - 8

*SUP 4: 99.180 200-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The close above the 21-DMA (99.244) sees bulls gain breathing room

with a close above 99.260 now needed to return focus to 2018 highs. The

Bollinger top is the key concern for bulls with potential to limit follow

through. Initial support is now noted at 99.230 with bears needing a close below

to gain breathing room and below 99.200 needed to initially pressure the

200-DMA.

     EURIBOR TECHS: (Z18) Bears Need Close Below 55-DMA

*RES 4: 100.320 - Repeated Daily highs Dec 

*RES 3: 100.310 - 2018 High Repeatedly May 

*RES 2: 100.308 - Bollinger band top 

*RES 1: 100.305 - Repeated daily lows Apr/May now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.290

*SUP 1: 100.289 - 55-DMA

*SUP 2: 100.282 - 100-DMA

*SUP 3: 100.274 - 21-DMA

*SUP 4: 100.265 - High June 11 now support

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from 100.245 has resulted in closes above key

resistance levels with bulls regaining the upper hand and immediate focus now

back on tests of 2018 highs. Fresh 2018 highs are needed to initially target

100.320. Daily studies at O/B levels are a concern for bulls. Bears now need a

close below the 55-DMA to ease bullish pressure and below the 21-DMA to hint at

a move back to 100.245 with below the 200-DMA (100.264) confirming.

     US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (U18) Bears Need Close Below 119-14+

*RES 4: 121-03  High May 30

*RES 3: 120-24  Hourly resistance May 30a

*RES 2: 120-16  Hourly resistance May 30

*RES 1: 120-06  High June 19

*PRICE: 119-26+ @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 119-24  Hourly support June 18

*SUP 2: 119-14+ Low June 15

*SUP 3: 119-09  Hourly resistance June 13 now support

*SUP 4: 118-29  Low June 13

*COMMENTARY: The break of 120-00+ lacked follow through Tuesday which is less

than ideal for bulls. Bulls now need a close above 120-06 to confirm focus on

112-03/12+. Daily studies have returned to more neutral levels. Bears continue

to look for a close below 119-14+ to confirm breaks of 21 (119-19+) & 55

(119-15+) DMAs, easing bullish pressure, and below 118-29+ to shift initial

focus back to 2018 lows.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Above 2.937 To Gain Breathing Room

*RES 4: 2.985 - Hourly resistance June 13 

*RES 3: 2.965 - Hourly support June 13 now resistance 

*RES 2: 2.937 - High June 15 

*RES 1: 2.906 - Hourly resistance June 18

*PRICE: 2.893 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 2.884 - Hourly support June 19 

*SUP 2: 2.852 - Low June 19 

*SUP 3: 2.821 - Hourly support May 30 

*SUP 4: 2.790 - Hourly support May 30a

*COMMENTARY: The break of 2.884 and the 100-DMA (2.890) has so far lacked follow

through. Bears now need a close below 2.852 to confirm traction below the

100-DMA and add weight to the case for a test of 2.717-759 where Mar & May lows

are noted. Bulls continue to look for a close above 2.937 to gain breathing room

and above 3.014 to end bearish hopes and initially target 2018 highs.

     EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: Below 3383.17 To Target 2018 Low

*RES 4: 3540.64 High June 15

*RES 3: 3505.02 Low June 15 now resistance

*RES 2: 3469.94 Hourly resistance June 18

*RES 1: 3451.90 Low June 18 now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3435.30

*SUP 1: 3410.41 Low June 19 

*SUP 2: 3395.31 Bollinger band base 

*SUP 3: 3389.53 100-WMA 

*SUP 4: 3383.17 Alternating daily support/resistance

*COMMENTARY: The lack of follow through above the 200-DMA (3521.62) last week

has seen the pair dip below the bull channel base (3428.77) off 2018 lows. Bears

continue to look for a close below 3383.17 to confirm a break of the channel

base and 100-WMA and target 2018 lows. Daily studies have room to move before

O/S is an issue. Bulls now need a close above 3469.94 to gain breathing room and

above 3505.02 to shift focus back to 3540.03-3600.36.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]