MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

11 September 2017

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: $1.1984 Support Key Today

*RES 4: $1.2187 High Dec 30 2014 

*RES 3: $1.2092 2017 High Sept 8 

*RES 2: $1.2074 Hourly resistance Sept 8a 

*RES 1: $1.2051 Hourly resistance Sept 8

*PRICE: $1.2014 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1984 Hourly support Sept 7 

*SUP 2: $1.1903 Hourly support Sept 6 

*SUP 3: $1.1868 Low Sept 5, 21-DMA 

*SUP 4: $1.1823 Low Sept 1

*COMMENTARY: Dips back towards the 21-DMA continued to find support in recent

weeks resulting in fresh 2017 highs Friday with bullish focus currently on

$1.2187-1.2254 where the daily bull channel top is located. The Bollinger top

($1.2061) is the key concern and limits follow through. Bears still need a close

below $1.1984 to hint at a correction back to $1.1823-68. Daily studies remain

supportive of gains.

     CABLE TECHS: $1.3159 Support Key Today

*RES 4: $1.3375 High Sept 8 2016 

*RES 3: $1.3341 Daily Bull channel base 

*RES 2: $1.3264 2017 High Aug 3 

*RES 1: $1.3224 High Sept 8

*PRICE: $1.3175 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3159 Hourly resistance Sept 8 now support 

*SUP 2: $1.3116 High Sept 7 now support 

*SUP 3: $1.3093 Hourly support Sept 7 

*SUP 4: $1.3063 Hourly support Sept 7a

*COMMENTARY: Gains defined last week with bulls currently focused on

$1.3264-1.3375 where 2017 highs and the Bull channel top are located. Daily

studies approaching O/B and the Bollinger top ($1.3157) are now key concerns for

bulls. In saying that, bears need a close below $1.3159 to ease immediate

bullish pressure and hint at a correction back to $1.3063-93.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Downside Follow Through Lacking

*RES 4: Y109.93 High Sept 4 

*RES 3: Y109.55 Hourly resistance Sept 6 

*RES 2: Y108.97 Hourly resistance Sept 7a 

*RES 1: Y108.70 Hourly resistance Sept 7

*PRICE: Y108.43 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y108.05 Alternating hourly support/resistance 

*SUP 2: Y107.32 2017 Low Sept 8 

*SUP 3: Y106.95 High Nov 10 now support 

*SUP 4: Y104.90 Low Nov 10

*COMMENTARY: Bearish confidence received a boost with fresh 2017 and 10tmh lows

shifting immediate focus to Y106.95 and overall focus to Y99.08-101.15. The lack

of follow through courtesy of the Bollinger base (Y108.07) is less than ideal

for bears. Daily studies have room to move before O/S. Initial support is noted

at Y108.05 with bears needing a close below this level to maintain initial focus

on Y106.95. Bulls need a close above Y108.97 to gain breathing room.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Bears Need Close Below Y129.25

*RES 4: Y131.62 Bollinger band top

*RES 3: Y131.35 High Sept 1

*RES 2: Y131.10 High Sept 7

*RES 1: Y130.66 High Sept 8

*PRICE: Y130.26 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y129.85 21-DMA 

*SUP 2: Y129.62 55-DMA 

*SUP 3: Y129.25 Low Sept 5 

*SUP 4: Y128.31 Low Aug 22

*COMMENTARY: Despite pressuring the 55-DMA and daily bull channel base (Y129.74)

bears have failed to manage the close below needed to confirm a break, ending

bullish hopes and shifting initial focus back to Y127.43 June 30 lows.

Thursday's rally lacked follow through but was enough to reconfirm bullish focus

on tests of 2017 highs with bulls looking for a close above Y131.10 to add

support to their case.

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above Gbp0.9248

*RES 4: Gbp0.9226 High Sept 4

*RES 3: Gbp0.9213 High Sept 5

*RES 2: Gbp0.9153 Hourly support Sept 7a now resistance

*RES 1: Gbp0.9127 Hourly resistance Sept 8

*PRICE: Gbp0.9115 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.9104 Hourly support Sept 11 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.9091 Low Aug 18 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.9048 Low Sept 15 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.9041 Daily Bull channel base

*COMMENTARY: Attempts to rally last week remained capped ahead of Gbp0.9213-48

with the pair looking a little heavy as focus returns to layers of support

Gbp0.8994-0.9091 where the daily bull channel base and 55-DMA are located.

Layers of resistance are building and weighing with bulls now needing a close

above Gbp0.8153 to ease pressure on support layers and above Gbp0.9248 to return

focus to Gbp0.9307-65.

     AUSSIE TECHS: Bears Need Close Below $0.8009

*RES 4: $0.8295 - 2015 High Jan 15

*RES 3: $0.8163 - Monthly High May 14 2015

*RES 2: $0.8125 - 2017 High Sept 8

*RES 1: $0.8081 - Hourly support Sept 8 now resistance

*PRICE: $0.8047 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $0.8009 - Hourly support Sept 7 

*SUP 2: $0.7966 - Daily Bull channel base 

*SUP 3: $0.7961 - Low Sept 6 

*SUP 4: $0.7920 - Hourly support Aug 31

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2017 and 2+ year highs continued Friday although the lack of

topside follow through is a concern for bulls. In saying that, the $0.8009

support remains key this week. Bears continue to look for a close below $0.8009

to shift focus back to $0.7920. Below $0.7920 remains needed to hint at a deeper

correction targeting the 55-DMA ($0.7864). Initial resistance is noted at

$0.8081 with bulls needing a close above to ease pressure on $0.8009.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Focus On 89.776-90.325

*RES 4: 92.711 - High Sept 4 

*RES 3: 92.445 - Low Sept 4 now resistance 

*RES 2: 92.100 - Alternating hourly support/resistance 

*RES 1: 91.770 - Hourly resistance Sept 7

*PRICE: 91.518 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 91.410 - Hourly support Sept 11

*SUP 2: 91.011 - 2017 Low Sept 8

*SUP 3: 90.325 - High Dec 30 2014 now support

*SUP 4: 89.776 - Low Dec 26 2014

*COMMENTARY: The rejection above the 21-DMA (92.776) last week resulted in fresh

2017 & 2+ year lows with overall focus having shifted to 89.776-90.325. The

Bollinger base (91.385) remains the key concern for bears with potential to

limit follow through. Layers of resistance remain with bulls still needing a

close above 92.100 to ease immediate bearish pressure and hint at a correction

back to 92.711-93.347 where the 21-DMA is noted.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 2.115-180 Resistance Key

*RES 4: 2.166 - Hourly resistance Aug 31 

*RES 3: 2.159 - 21-DMA 

*RES 2: 2.148 - High Sept 5 

*RES 1: 2.115 - Hourly resistance Sept 5a

*PRICE: 2.091 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 2.075 - High Sept 8 now support 

*SUP 2: 2.039 - Hourly resistance Sept 8 now support 

*SUP 3: 2.016 - 2017 Low Sept 8 

*SUP 4: 1.991 - Low Nov 10

*COMMENTARY: Bears failed to manage a weekly close below the 100-WMA (2.054)

with downside follow through lacking Friday on fresh 2017 and 10mth lows. The

gapping move higher is less than ideal for bears who are initially focused on

1.991 and then the key 1.879 support. Layers of resistance remain with bulls

needing a 2.115 to ease bearish pressure and above 2.180 to shift initial focus

back to 2.206-2.229.

NYMEX WTI TECHS: (V17) Pressure On 55-DMA 

*RES 4: $49.42 - High Sept 6 

*RES 3: $48.63 - Low Sept 7 now resistance 

*RES 2: $48.47 - Hourly support Sept 5 now resistance 

*RES 1: $48.04 - Hourly support Sept 8 now resistance

*PRICE: $47.87 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $47.38 - 55-DMA 

*SUP 2: $47.27 - Low Sept 8 

*SUP 3: $46.56 - Low Sept 1 

*SUP 4: $45.84 - Hourly support Aug 31

*COMMENTARY: The contract remained capped ahead of the daily bear channel top

($49.58) last week with the sell-off and bearish close Friday easing bullish

pressure and now pressuring the 55-DMA. Bears need a close below $46.56 to

confirm focus back on $45.21-58. Below $45.21 is needed to target $42.52 June

lows. Bulls now need a close above $48.63 to return focus to $49.42-58 where the

bear channel top is noted.

SPOT GOLD TECHS: 2017 Highs Lack Follow Through

*RES 4: $1358.1 - High Aug 16 2016 

*RES 3: $1357.5 - 2017 High Sept 8 

*RES 2: $1350.5 - Hourly support Sept 8 now resistance 

*RES 1: $1342.1 - Low Sept 7 now resistance

*PRICE: $1337.6 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1331.4 - Low Sept 6 

*SUP 2: $1326.0 - Low Sept 5 

*SUP 3: $1313.7 - High Aug 30 now support 

*SUP 4: $1307.7 - 21-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2017 and 12mth highs lacked follow through Friday with bears

taking comfort in the gapping move lower today that eases immediate bullish

pressure and hints at a correction back to $1294.6-1313.7 where the 21-DMA is

located. Bears now need a close below $1326.0 to add weight to their case. Bulls

look for a close above $1350.5 to retain overall focus on tests of $1375.1 2016

highs.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]