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MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

12 September 2017
By Kyle Shortland
Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis
Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s
EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Focus Shifts To $1.1823-68
*RES 4: $1.2187 High Dec 30 2014 
*RES 3: $1.2092 2017 High Sept 8 
*RES 2: $1.2045 Hourly resistance Sept 8 
*RES 1: $1.1992 Hourly resistance Sept 11
*PRICE: $1.1954 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $1.1903 Hourly support Sept 6 
*SUP 2: $1.1868 Low Sept 5 
*SUP 3: $1.1823 Low Sept 1 
*SUP 4: $1.1777 Daily Bull channel base
*COMMENTARY: Friday's lack of topside follow through has been followed up with a
close below $1.1984 that confirms an easing of bullish pressure and sees
immediate focus shift to tests of $1.1823-74 where the 21-DMA is situated with
overall focus on the daily bull channel base. Initial resistance is noted at
$1.1992 but bulls now need a close above $1.2045 to return initial focus to
retests of recent 2017 highs.
     CABLE TECHS: $1.3159 Support Key Today
*RES 4: $1.3375 High Sept 8 2016 
*RES 3: $1.3344 Daily Bull channel top 
*RES 2: $1.3264 2017 High Aug 3 
*RES 1: $1.3224 High Sept 8
*PRICE: $1.3177 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $1.3159 Hourly resistance Sept 8 now support 
*SUP 2: $1.3116 High Sept 7 now support 
*SUP 3: $1.3093 Hourly support Sept 7 
*SUP 4: $1.3063 Hourly support Sept 7a
*COMMENTARY: Gains defined last week with bulls currently focused on
$1.3264-1.3375 where 2017 highs and the Bull channel top are located. Daily
studies approaching O/B and the Bollinger top ($1.3187) remain key concerns for
bulls and are starting to weigh. In saying that, bears still need a close below
$1.3159 to ease immediate bullish pressure and hint at a correction back to
$1.3063-93.
     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Bears Need Close Below Y108.70
*RES 4: Y110.67 High Aug 31 
*RES 3: Y110.48 High Sept 1 
*RES 2: Y109.93 High Sept 4 
*RES 1: Y109.58 Hourly resistance Sept 12
*PRICE: Y109.33 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: Y108.97 Hourly resistance Sept 7a now support 
*SUP 2: Y108.70 Hourly resistance Sept 7 now support 
*SUP 3: Y108.05 Alternating hourly support/resistance 
*SUP 4: Y107.32 2017 Low Sept 8
*COMMENTARY: Failure to capitalise on Friday's fresh 2017 and 10tmh lows has
resulted in a correction back towards the Y109.93 resistance. Bulls now look for
a close above Y109.93 to confirm a shift in focus to Y110.67-111.33 where 55
(Y110.83) & 100 (Y111.14) DMAs are located. Above Y111.33 is needed to target
the 200-DMA (Y112.32). Layers of support are building with bears needing a close
below Y108.70 to ease renewed bullish pressure.
     EURO-YEN TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above Y131.10
*RES 4: Y131.75 Bollinger band top
*RES 3: Y131.35 High Sept 1
*RES 2: Y131.10 High Sept 7
*RES 1: Y130.90 High Sept 11
*PRICE: Y130.75 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: Y130.63 Hourly support Sept 12 
*SUP 2: Y130.05 Hourly support Sept 11 
*SUP 3: Y129.95 21-DMA, Daily Bull channel base 
*SUP 4: Y129.69 55-DMA
*COMMENTARY: Despite pressuring the 55-DMA and daily bull channel base bears
have failed to manage the close below needed to confirm a break, ending bullish
hopes and shifting initial focus back to Y127.43 June 30 lows. Thursday's rally
lacked follow through but was enough to reconfirm bullish focus on tests of 2017
highs with bulls looking for a close above Y131.10 to add support to their case.
Bears now need a close below Y129.25 to shift initial focus to Y128.30.
     EURO-STERLING TECHS: Above Gbp0.9153 To Ease Bearish Pressure
*RES 4: Gbp0.9213 High Sept 5
*RES 3: Gbp0.9153 Hourly support Sept 7a now resistance
*RES 2: Gbp0.9127 Hourly resistance Sept 8
*RES 1: Gbp0.9094 Hourly resistance Sept 11
*PRICE: Gbp0.9071 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: Gbp0.9048 Low Sept 15, Daily Bull channel base 
*SUP 2: Gbp0.9008 55-DMA 
*SUP 3: Gbp0.8994 Low Aug 4 
*SUP 4: Gbp0.8915 Monthly Low Aug 1
*COMMENTARY: Attempts to rally last week remained capped ahead of Gbp0.9213-48
as focus returns to layers of support Gbp0.8994-0.9048 where the daily bull
channel base and 55-DMA are located. Layers of resistance are building and
weighing with bulls needing a close above Gbp0.8153 to ease pressure on support
layers and above Gbp0.9248 to return focus to Gbp0.9307-65 where 2016 & 2017
highs and the daily bull channel top (Gbp0.9361) are noted.
     AUSSIE TECHS: Focus Back on Bull Channel Base
*RES 4: $0.8163 - Monthly High May 14 2015
*RES 3: $0.8125 - 2017 High Sept 8
*RES 2: $0.8061 - Hourly resistance Sept 11
*RES 1: $0.8034 - Hourly resistance Sept 12
*PRICE: $0.8010 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $0.7975 - Daily Bull channel base 
*SUP 2: $0.7961 - Low Sept 6 
*SUP 3: $0.7920 - Hourly support Aug 31 
*SUP 4: $0.7863 - Low Aug 24
*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2017 and 2+ year highs continued Friday although the lack of
topside follow through is a concern for bulls. Pressure on the $0.8009 support
has resulted in a break lower but bears look for a close below $0.8009 to shift
focus back to $0.7920. Layers of resistance are building and correcting O/B
studies are adding weight to the bearish case. Bulls now need a close above
$0.8081 to return initial focus to tests of recent 2017 highs.
     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above 92.100
*RES 4: 92.936 - Hourly resistance Aug 31 
*RES 3: 92.711 - High Sept 4 
*RES 2: 92.445 - Low Sept 4 now resistance 
*RES 1: 92.100 - Alternating hourly support/resistance
*PRICE: 91.895 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: 91.626 - Hourly resistance Sept 8 now support
*SUP 2: 91.410 - Low Sept 11
*SUP 3: 91.011 - 2017 Low Sept 8
*SUP 4: 90.325 - High Dec 30 2014 now support
*COMMENTARY: The lack of downside follow through has seen a bounce to start the
new week with bulls still needing a close above 92.100 to ease bearish pressure
and hint at a correction back to 92.711-93.347 where the 21-DMA is noted. While
92.100 caps bears remain focused on 89.776-90.325 where levels last seen in Dec
2014 are situated. Bears now look for a close below 91.410 to end correction
talk and reconfirm dominance.
     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 2.180 Resistance Now Key
*RES 4: 2.180 - High Aug 28 
*RES 3: 2.166 - Hourly resistance Aug 31 
*RES 2: 2.157 - 21-DMA 
*RES 1: 2.148 - High Sept 5
*PRICE: 2.131 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: 2.096 - Hourly breakout level Sept 11 
*SUP 2: 2.075 - High Sept 8 now support 
*SUP 3: 2.039 - Hourly resistance Sept 8 now support 
*SUP 4: 2.016 - 2017 Low Sept 8
*COMMENTARY: Bears failed to manage a weekly close below the 100-WMA (2.055)
with downside follow through lacking Friday on fresh 2017 and 10mth lows. The
gapping move higher Monday eased bearish pressure and sees immediate focus on
2.180. Bulls look for a close above 2.180 to shift initial focus back to
2.206-2.242 where key DMAs are noted. Bears now need a close below 2.075 to
return initial focus to 2017 lows.
NYMEX WTI TECHS: (V17) Bulls Need Close Above $48.63 
*RES 4: $49.53 - Daily Bear channel top 
*RES 3: $49.42 - High Sept 6 
*RES 2: $48.63 - Low Sept 7 now resistance 
*RES 1: $48.47 - Hourly support Sept 5 now resistance
*PRICE: $48.05 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $47.91 - Hourly support Sept 11 
*SUP 2: $47.63 - Hourly support Sept 11a 
*SUP 3: $47.00 - Low Sept 11 
*SUP 4: $46.56 - Low Sept 1
*COMMENTARY: Following on from Friday's pullback the dip below the 55-DMA
($47.46) lacked follow through Monday with the contract finding support ahead of
$46.56. Bears continue to look for a close below $46.56 to confirm focus back on
$45.21-58. Below $45.21 is needed to target $42.52 June lows. Bulls still need a
close above $48.63 to return focus to $49.42-53 where the bear channel top is
noted.
SPOT GOLD TECHS: Correction Gathering Momentum
*RES 4: $1357.5 - 2017 High Sept 8 
*RES 3: $1350.5 - Hourly support Sept 8 now resistance 
*RES 2: $1342.1 - Hourly support Sept 8 now resistance A 
*RES 1: $1331.4 - Low Sept 7 now resistance
*PRICE: $1324.9 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $1313.7 - High Aug 30 now support 
*SUP 2: $1309.3 - 21-DMA 
*SUP 3: $1304.9 - Hourly support Aug 31 
*SUP 4: $1298.4 - Low Aug 31
*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2017 and 12mth highs lacked follow through Friday with bears
taking comfort in the gapping move lower Monday that eased bullish pressure and
hints at a correction back to $1294.6-1313.7 where the 21-DMA is located. Bulls
now look for a close above $1342.1 to ease renewed bearish pressure and
reconfirm focus on $1375.1 2016 highs. Daily studies are well placed for a
correction lower.
--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]

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