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MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

21 September 2017
By Kyle Shortland
Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis
Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s
EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Pressure Back On Channel Base
*RES 4: $1.1984 Hourly support Sept 20 now resistance 
*RES 3: $1.1946 Hourly support Sept 19 now resistance 
*RES 2: $1.1915 Hourly support Sept 18 now resistance 
*RES 1: $1.1903 Hourly resistance Sept 20
*PRICE: $1.1885 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $1.1862 Low Sept 20 
*SUP 2: $1.1854 Daily Bull channel base 
*SUP 3: $1.1834 Low Sept 14 
*SUP 4: $1.1822 Low Aug 31
*COMMENTARY: An aggressive rejection ahead of $1.2045 Wednesday eased bullish
pressure with immediate focus on the $1.1822-54 support region where the channel
base is found. Bears need a close below $1.1822 to shift initial focus to the
55-DMA ($1.1772) and overall focus to $1.1583-1.1658. Layers of resistance have
been left in the wake with bulls needing a close above $1.1946 to ease bearish
pressure and above $1.2045 to reconfirm a bullish bias.
     CABLE TECHS: Bears Still Need Close Below $1.3450
*RES 4: $1.4006 Monthly Low Apr 6 2016 now resistance 
*RES 3: $1.3657 2017 High Sept 20 
*RES 2: $1.3577 Hourly support Sept 20 now resistance 
*RES 1: $1.3508 Hourly resistance Sept 21
*PRICE: $1.3494 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $1.3450 Hourly resistance Sept 15 now support 
*SUP 2: $1.3381 Low Sept 15 
*SUP 3: $1.3344 Hourly support Sept 14 
*SUP 4: $1.3298 Hourly resistance Sept 12 now support
*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2017 and 15mth highs lacked follow through Wednesday which is
a concern when combined with daily studies correcting from O/B, momentum
divergence and the Bollinger band top ($1.3646) limiting follow through. The
$1.3450 support remains key. Bears still need a close below $1.3450 to confirm
an easing of bullish pressure and below $1.3306 to shift focus back to $1.3148
lows from last week.
     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Immediate Focus on Y112.85
*RES 4: Y115.50 Monthly High Mar 10 
*RES 3: Y114.49 Monthly High July 11 
*RES 2: Y113.70 Low July 11 now resistance 
*RES 1: Y112.85 Low July 13 now resistance
*PRICE: Y112.42 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: Y112.09 Hourly support Sept 20 
*SUP 2: Y111.88 High Sept 19 now support 
*SUP 3: Y111.54 Hourly resistance Sept 20 now support 
*SUP 4: Y111.09 Low Sept 20
*COMMENTARY: Gains continue following closes above 55 (Y110.65) & 100 (Y111.12)
DMAs with the pair looking to gain traction above the 200-DMA (Y112.18).
Immediate focus shifts to Y112.85 with overall focus on July monthly highs. O/B
studies and the Bollinger top (Y112.37) remain key concerns for bulls. Layers of
support accumulating add to bullish confidence with bears now needing a close
below Y111.88 to gain breathing room and below Y110.99 to shift focus lower.
     EURO-YEN TECHS: Bulls Focused On Y134.59
*RES 4: Y135.84 Low Oct 21 2015 now resistance
*RES 3: Y134.59 Monthly High Dec 4 2015
*RES 2: Y134.22 High Dec 9 2015
*RES 1: Y134.17 2017 High Sept 19
*PRICE: Y133.63 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: Y133.19 Low Sept 20 
*SUP 2: Y132.58 Hourly support Sept 18 
*SUP 3: Y132.21 Hourly resistance Sept 15 now support 
*SUP 4: Y131.75 High Sept 14 now support
*COMMENTARY: 21 (Y131.27) & 55 (Y130.25) DMAs and channel base supported during
Sept and support emerging Friday provided the catalyst for a rally to repeated
fresh 2017 and nearly 2yr highs with immediate focus on Y134.59. Overall bullish
focus remains on the channel top (Y138.88). The Bollinger top (Y133.91) is the
key concern for bulls. Bears now need a close below Y133.19 to gain breathing
room and below Y132.31 to return focus to the 21-DMA/channel base.
     EURO-STERLING TECHS: Bears Focused On Gbp0.8704-10
*RES 4: Gbp0.8920 Hourly resistance Sept 14
*RES 3: Gbp0.8907 High Sept 15
*RES 2: Gbp0.8858 Hourly support Sept 20a now resistance
*RES 1: Gbp0.8826 Hourly support Sept 20 now resistance
*PRICE: Gbp0.8807 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: Gbp0.8793 Low Sept 20 
*SUP 2: Gbp0.8775 Low Sept 15 
*SUP 3: Gbp0.8745 Bollinger band base 
*SUP 4: Gbp0.8710 200-DMA
*COMMENTARY: Daily studies are now looking to correct from very O/S levels and
increase the risk of a correction. Bulls now need a close above Gbp0.8858 to
ease immediate bearish pressure with a close above Gbp0.8920 still needed to
shift initial focus back to the 55-DMA (Gbp0.9016). Bears currently focus on
Gbp0.8704-10 where the 55-WMA and 200-DMA are situated. Below the 200-DMA shifts
focus to Gbp0.8523.
     AUSSIE TECHS: Rejected Ahead Of 2017 High
*RES 4: $0.8125 - 2017 High Sept 8 
*RES 3: $0.8101 - High Sept 20
*RES 2: $0.8068 - Hourly support Sept 20a now resistance, Bollinger top
*RES 1: $0.8045 - Hourly support Sept 20 now resistance
*PRICE: $0.8003 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $0.7983 - Low Sept 20, Daily Bull channel base 
*SUP 2: $0.7961 - Hourly support Sept 19a 
*SUP 3: $0.7920 - Low Sept 1 
*SUP 4: $0.7918 - 55-DMA
*COMMENTARY: Pressure has returned to the daily bull channel base following the
aggressive rejection from ahead of 2017 highs Wednesday. Layers of support
$0.7918-83 remain key. Bears need a close below the 55-DMA to end bullish hopes,
shifting immediate focus to $0.7863 and overall focus to $0.7781-0.7807. Layers
of resistance are now weighing with bulls needing a close above $0.8068 to shift
focus back to 2017 highs.
     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Bullish Key Day Reversal
*RES 4: 93.347 - High Aug 31 
*RES 3: 92.936 - Hourly resistance Aug 31 
*RES 2: 92.711 - High Sept 4 
*RES 1: 92.697 - High Sept 20
*PRICE: 92.525 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: 92.385 - Hourly support Sept 20
*SUP 2: 92.210 - High Sept 18 now support
*SUP 3: 92.049 - High Sept 19
*SUP 4: 91.883 - Hourly resistance Sept 19 now support
*COMMENTARY: A bullish key day reversal and closes above the bear channel top
(92.210) and 21-DMA (92.301) puts a dent in bearish hopes with bulls now looking
for a close above 92.936 to shift focus to 93.346-347 where the 55-DMA (93.346)
is situated. Daily studies and the Bollinger top (93.217) are well placed for
further gains. Bears now look for a close below 92.210 to ease bullish pressure
and below 92.049 to initially pressure 91.526.
     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 2.290 Resistance Now Key
*RES 4: 2.337 - Repeated Daily Highs July 
*RES 3: 2.331 - 200-DMA 
*RES 2: 2.290 - High Aug 4 
*RES 1: 2.287 - High Sept 20
*PRICE: 2.271 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: 2.266 - Hourly support Sept 20 
*SUP 2: 2.246 - High Sept 19 now support 
*SUP 3: 2.222 - Low Sept 19 
*SUP 4: 2.208 - Low Sept 18
*COMMENTARY: The closes above 55 (2.232) & 100 (2.238) DMAs adds to bullish
confidence with immediate pressure now on 2.290. Bulls need a close above to
confirm immediate focus on 2.331-337 where the 200-DMA and daily highs are
located. O/B studies and the Bollinger top (2.276) are key concerns for bulls.
Layers of support are accumulating with bears now needing a close below 2.246 to
ease bullish pressure and below 2.208 to shift focus lower.
NYMEX WTI: (X17) 200-DMA Capping For Now 
*RES 4: $51.45 - Low May 23 now resistance 
*RES 3: $51.05 - 200-DMA 
*RES 2: $50.93 - Hourly resistance Sept 20a 
*RES 1: $50.79 - Hourly resistance Sept 20
*PRICE: $50.69 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $50.35 - Hourly support Sept 20 
*SUP 2: $50.13 - Low Sept 20 
*SUP 3: $49.57 - Low Sept 14 
*SUP 4: $49.33 - Hourly support Sept 13
*COMMENTARY: The recovery from Aug lows now sees the contract hesitating ahead
of the 200-DMA and $51.05-51.45 region as daily studies linger at O/B levels.
Bears now look for a close below $50.13 to ease pressure on the 200-DMA and
below $49.57 to shift focus back to key DMAs $48.06-48.96. Bulls still need a
close above $51.45 to confirm a break of the 200-DMA and to focus on $52.62 May
highs.
SPOT GOLD: Bears Still Need Close Below $1294.4
*RES 4: $1320.0 - High Sept 18 
*RES 3: $1316.0 - High Sept 20 
*RES 2: $1309.9 - Hourly support Sept 20 now resistance 
*RES 1: $1304.6 - Low Sept 18 now resistance
*PRICE: $1299.5 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $1296.0 - Low Sept 20 
*SUP 2: $1294.4 - High Aug 25 now support 
*SUP 3: $1283.7 - Bollinger band top 
*SUP 4: $1280.2 - 55-DMA
*COMMENTARY: Pressure on the 21-DMA took its toll Monday with closes below
seeing bears focused on $1294.4. Bears need a close below $1294.4 to confirm
focus on 55 & 100-DMAs ($1267.6-1281.6). Layers of resistance are weighing and
adding to bearish confidence. Bulls now need a close above $1309.9 to ease
immediate bearish pressure and above $1320.0 to hint at a bounce back to
$1334.8-1342.1.
--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]

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