MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

22 September 2017

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Channel Base Continues To Support

*RES 4: $1.2045 Hourly resistance Sept 8 

*RES 3: $1.2033 High Sept 20 

*RES 2: $1.1946 Hourly support Sept 19 now resistance 

*RES 1: $1.1984 Hourly support Sept 20 now resistance

*PRICE: $1.1956 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1928 Hourly resistance Sept 21 now support 

*SUP 2: $1.1891 Hourly support Sept 21 

*SUP 3: $1.1865 Daily Bull channel base 

*SUP 4: $1.1862 Low Sept 20

*COMMENTARY: The daily bull channel base continues to confirm significance with

support again emerging on dips following the aggressive sell-off Wednesday.

Bears still need a close below $1.1822 to shift initial focus to the 55-DMA

($1.1783) and overall focus to $1.1583-1.1658. Bulls now look for a close above

$1.1984 to shift focus back to $1.2027-1.2092 where the Bollinger top ($1.2037)

& 2017 highs are situated.

     CABLE TECHS: Bears Still Need Close Below $1.3450

*RES 4: $1.4006 Monthly Low Apr 6 2016 now resistance 

*RES 3: $1.3703 Bollinger band top 

*RES 2: $1.3657 2017 High Sept 20 

*RES 1: $1.3587 Hourly resistance Sept 22

*PRICE: $1.3579 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3567 Hourly support Sept 22 

*SUP 2: $1.3558 Hourly support Sept 21 

*SUP 3: $1.3517 Hourly resistance Sept 21 now support 

*SUP 4: $1.3471 Low Sept 21

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2017 and 15mth highs lacked follow through Wednesday but

bulls take comfort in support emerging ahead of the $1.3450 level. The $1.3450

support remains key. Bears still need a close below $1.3450 to confirm an easing

of bullish pressure and below $1.3306 to shift focus back to $1.3148 lows from

last week. Bears now need a close below $1.3558 to gain breathing room. While

$1.3558 supports bulls remain focused on 2017 highs.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Looking A Little Heavy

*RES 4: Y113.70 Low July 11 now resistance 

*RES 3: Y112.85 Low July 13 now resistance 

*RES 2: Y112.39 Hourly support Sept 21 now resistance 

*RES 1: Y111.88 Alternating hourly support/resistance

*PRICE: Y111.79 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y111.54 Hourly resistance Sept 20 now support 

*SUP 2: Y111.11 100-DMA 

*SUP 3: Y110.99 Hourly support Sept 18 a 

*SUP 4: Y110.61 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Bulls have so far failed to gain traction above the 200-DMA

(Y112.15) leaving the pair looking a little heavy and pressuring Y111.54. Bears

need a close below Y111.54 to confirm a shift in focus to 55 & 100-DMAs. Bulls

now need a close above Y112.39 to retain focus on Y112.85 and overall focus on

tests of July monthly highs. O/B studies and the Bollinger top (Y112.57) remain

key concerns for bulls.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Y133.19 Support Key Today

*RES 4: Y135.84 Low Oct 21 2015 now resistance

*RES 3: Y134.59 Monthly High Dec 4 2015

*RES 2: Y134.39 2017 High Sept 22

*RES 1: Y134.08 Hourly resistance Sept 22

*PRICE: Y133.56 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y133.40 Low Sept 21 

*SUP 2: Y133.19 Low Sept 20 

*SUP 3: Y132.58 Hourly support Sept 18 

*SUP 4: Y132.21 Hourly resistance Sept 15 now support

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2017 and nearly 2 year highs continue although the rejection

ahead of Y134.59 is less than ideal given the proximity of the Bollinger top

(Y134.28) and O/B daily studies looking to correct. Bears continue to look for a

close below Y133.19 to gain breathing room and below Y132.21 to return focus to

the 21-DMA/channel base (Y131.12-51). Bulls look for a close above Y134.59 to

add support to the case for a test of the bull channel top (Y139.02).

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: Gbp0.8920 Resistance Remains Key

*RES 4: Gbp0.8920 Hourly resistance Sept 14

*RES 3: Gbp0.8907 High Sept 15

*RES 2: Gbp0.8858 Hourly support Sept 20a now resistance

*RES 1: Gbp0.8834 High Sept 21

*PRICE: Gbp0.8804 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.8783 Low Sept 21 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.8775 Low Sept 15 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.8712 200-DMA 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.8710 Bollinger band base

*COMMENTARY: Daily studies are looking to correct from very O/S levels and

increase the risk of a correction. Bulls still need a close above Gbp0.8858 to

ease immediate bearish pressure with a close above Gbp0.8920 needed to shift

initial focus back to the 55-DMA (Gbp0.9015). Bears currently focus on

Gbp0.8704-12 where the 55-WMA and 200-DMA are situated. Below the 55-WMA shifts

focus to Gbp0.8523.

     AUSSIE TECHS: Flirting With 55-DMA

*RES 4: $0.8068 - Hourly support Sept 20a now resistance, Bollinger top

*RES 3: $0.8036 - High Sept 21

*RES 2: $0.7983 - Low Sept 20 now resistance

*RES 1: $0.7945 - Hourly resistance Sept 20

*PRICE: $0.7925 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7907 - Hourly support Sept 22 

*SUP 2: $0.7895 - Bollinger band base 

*SUP 3: $0.7863 - Low Aug 24 

*SUP 4: $0.7807 - Monthly Low Aug 15

*COMMENTARY: Pressure on the daily bull channel base has taken its toll with an

aggressive break and close below that sees the pair flirting with the 55-DMA

($0.7922). Bears continue to look for a close below the 55-DMA to end bullish

hopes, shifting immediate focus to $0.7863 and overall focus to $0.7781-0.7807.

Layers of resistance continue to accumulate and weigh with bulls now needing a

close above $0.8037 to shift focus back to 2017 highs.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: 92.049 Support Key Today

*RES 4: 92.936 - Hourly resistance Aug 31 

*RES 3: 92.711 - High Sept 4 

*RES 2: 92.697 - High Sept 20 

*RES 1: 92.270 - Hourly resistance Sept 21

*PRICE: 92.012 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: 91.883 - Hourly resistance Sept 19 now support

*SUP 2: 91.526 - Low Sept 20

*SUP 3: 91.410 - Low Sept 11

*SUP 4: 91.011 - 2017 Low Sept 8

*COMMENTARY: Bulls failed to capitalise on Wednesday's rally with the index

remaining capped ahead of the 92.697 resistance. The index is again looking a

little heavy with bears now looking for a close below 92.049 to shift immediate

focus back to 91.526 and overall focus back to 2017 lows. Resistance layers are

starting to build and weigh with bulls continuing to look for a close above

92.936 to shift focus to 93.265-347 where the 55-DMA (93.265) is situated.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 2.208-246 Support Key

*RES 4: 2.337 - Repeated Daily Highs July 

*RES 3: 2.330 - 200-DMA 

*RES 2: 2.290 - High Aug 4 

*RES 1: 2.287 - High Sept 20

*PRICE: 2.252 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 2.246 - High Sept 19 now support, Low Sept 21 

*SUP 2: 2.222 - Low Sept 19 

*SUP 3: 2.208 - Low Sept 18 

*SUP 4: 2.171 - Hourly resistance Sept 13 now support

*COMMENTARY: The closes above 55 (2.230) & 100 (2.238) DMAs adds to bullish

confidence with immediate focus now on 2.290. Bulls need a close above to

confirm immediate focus on 2.330-337 where the 200-DMA and daily highs are

located. O/B studies and the Bollinger top (2.298) are key concerns for bulls.

Layers of support are accumulating with bears still needing a close below 2.246

to ease bullish pressure and below 2.208 to shift focus lower.

NYMEX WTI: (X17) Remains Capped Ahead Of 200-DMA 

*RES 4: $51.45 - Low May 23 now resistance 

*RES 3: $51.03 - 200-DMA 

*RES 2: $50.93 - Hourly resistance Sept 20a 

*RES 1: $50.81 - High Sept 22

*PRICE: $50.58 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $50.35 - Hourly support Sept 21 

*SUP 2: $50.07 - Low Sept 21 

*SUP 3: $49.57 - Low Sept 14 

*SUP 4: $49.33 - Hourly support Sept 13

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from Aug lows sees the contract hesitating ahead of

the 200-DMA and $51.03-51.45 region as daily studies linger at O/B levels. Bears

now look for a close below $50.07 to ease pressure on the 200-DMA and below

$49.57 to shift focus back to key DMAs $48.06-48.98. Bulls still need a close

above $51.45 to confirm a break of the 200-DMA and to focus on $52.62 May highs.

SPOT GOLD: $1304.6-1320.0 Resistance Region Key

*RES 4: $1320.0 - High Sept 18 

*RES 3: $1316.0 - High Sept 20 

*RES 2: $1309.9 - Hourly support Sept 20 now resistance 

*RES 1: $1304.6 - Low Sept 18 now resistance

*PRICE: $1297.4 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1288.0 - Low Sept 21 

*SUP 2: $1283.9 - Bollinger band base 

*SUP 3: $1281.4 - 55-DMA 

*SUP 4: $1267.5 - 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Bears have so far failed to capitalise on the close below $1294.4

and focus shifting to 55 & 100-DMAs ($1268.2-1283.0) with it regaining some lost

ground in Asia. O/S studies and the Bollinger base are concerns for bears.

Initial resistance is noted at $1304.6 with bulls needing a close above to ease

immediate bearish pressure and above $1320.0 to shift focus to $1334.8-1342.1.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]