MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

25 September 2017

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: 55-DMA Support Key This Week

*RES 4: $1.2033 High Sept 20 

*RES 3: $1.2004 High Sept 22 

*RES 2: $1.1957 Hourly support Sept 22 now resistance 

*RES 1: $1.1937 Low Sept 22 now resistance

*PRICE: $1.1930 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1891 Hourly support Sept 21 

*SUP 2: $1.1877 Daily Bull channel base 

*SUP 3: $1.1862 Low Sept 20 

*SUP 4: $1.1834 Low Sept 14

*COMMENTARY: The daily bull channel base continued to confirm significance with

support again emerging on dips following the aggressive sell-off Wednesday. The

55-DMA is key support this week with bears needing a close below to confirm a

break of the $1.1822 and the bull channel base, shifting focus to

$1.1583-1.1658. Bulls now look for a close above $1.1957 to retain focus on

$1.2027-1.2092 where the Bollinger top ($1.2027) & 2017 highs are situated.

     CABLE TECHS: Bears Still Need Close Below $1.3450

*RES 4: $1.3718 Bollinger band top 

*RES 3: $1.3657 2017 High Sept 20 

*RES 2: $1.3595 High Sept 22 

*RES 1: $1.3538 Hourly resistance Sept 22

*PRICE: $1.3527 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3481 Hourly support Sept 22 

*SUP 2: $1.3450 Hourly resistance Sept 15 now support 

*SUP 3: $1.3381 Low Sept 15 

*SUP 4: $1.3344 Hourly support Sept 14

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2017 and 15mth highs lacked follow through Wednesday but

bulls take comfort in support emerging ahead of the $1.3450 level. The $1.3450

support remains key. Bears need a close below $1.3450 to confirm an easing of

bullish pressure and below $1.3306 to shift focus back to $1.3148. Daily studies

correcting from O/B remain the key concern for bulls who need a close above

$1.3595 to gain breathing room.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Bears Need Close Below Y111.54

*RES 4: Y114.49 Monthly High July 11 

*RES 3: Y113.70 Low July 11 now resistance 

*RES 2: Y112.85 Low July 13 now resistance 

*RES 1: Y112.72 High Sept 21

*PRICE: Y112.23 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y111.65 Low Sept 21 

*SUP 2: Y111.54 Hourly resistance Sept 20 now support 

*SUP 3: Y111.10 100-DMA 

*SUP 4: Y110.68 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Bulls are struggling to gain traction above the 200-DMA (Y112.12)

with the pair dipping back towards Y111.54 Friday. Bears need a close below this

level to confirm a shift in focus to 55 & 100-DMAs and below the 55-DMA to hint

at a move back to 2017 lows. Bulls continue to look for a close above Y112.85 to

reconfirm the bullish bias and target Y114.49 July highs. O/B studies and the

Bollinger top (Y112.88) remain key concerns for bulls.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Y133.19 Support Remains Key

*RES 4: Y135.84 Low Oct 21 2015 now resistance

*RES 3: Y134.59 Monthly High Dec 4 2015

*RES 2: Y134.41 2017 High Sept 22

*RES 1: Y134.25 Hourly resistance Sept 25

*PRICE: Y133.87 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y133.54 Hourly support Sept 22 

*SUP 2: Y133.19 Low Sept 20 

*SUP 3: Y132.58 Hourly support Sept 18 

*SUP 4: Y132.21 Hourly resistance Sept 15 now support

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2017 and nearly 2 year highs continue although rejections

ahead of Y134.59 are less than ideal given the proximity of the Bollinger top

(Y134.60) and O/B daily studies looking to correct. Bears continue to look for a

close below Y133.19 to gain breathing room and below Y132.21 to return focus to

the 21-DMA/channel base (Y131.26-69). Bulls look for a close above Y134.59 to

add support to the case for a test of the bull channel top (Y139.16).

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: Gbp0.8920 Resistance Remains Key

*RES 4: Gbp0.8920 Hourly resistance Sept 14

*RES 3: Gbp0.8907 High Sept 15

*RES 2: Gbp0.8886 High Sept 22

*RES 1: Gbp0.8839 Hourly resistance Sept 22

*PRICE: Gbp0.8816 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.8809 Hourly resistance Sept 21 now support 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.8783 Low Sept 21 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.8775 Low Sept 15 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.8715 200-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Daily studies are looking to correct from very O/S levels and

increase the risk of a correction. Bulls now need a close above Gbp0.8886 to

ease immediate bearish pressure with a close above Gbp0.8920 needed to shift

initial focus back to the 55-DMA (Gbp0.9016). Bears currently focus on

Gbp0.8704-16 where the 55-WMA and 200-DMA are situated. Below the 55-WMA shifts

focus to Gbp0.8523.

     AUSSIE TECHS: Flirting With 55-DMA

*RES 4: $0.8101 - High Sept 20 

*RES 3: $0.8068 - Hourly support Sept 20a now resistance 

*RES 2: $0.8036 - High Sept 21

*RES 1: $0.7986 - High Sept 22

*PRICE: $0.7953 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7907 - Hourly support Sept 22 

*SUP 2: $0.7905 - Bollinger band base 

*SUP 3: $0.7863 - Low Aug 24 

*SUP 4: $0.7807 - Monthly Low Aug 15

*COMMENTARY: Pressure on the daily bull channel base took its toll with an

aggressive break and close below that sees the pair flirting with the 55-DMA

($0.7929). Bears look for a close below $0.7907 to confirm a break of the 55-DMA

ending bullish hopes, shifting immediate focus to $0.7863 and overall focus to

$0.7781-0.7807. Layers of resistance remain and weigh with bulls now needing a

close above $0.8036 to shift focus back to 2017 highs.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Pressuring Channel Top

*RES 4: 93.347 - High Aug 31

*RES 3: 92.936 - Hourly resistance Aug 31 

*RES 2: 92.711 - High Sept 4 

*RES 1: 92.697 - High Sept 20

*PRICE: 92.300 @ 0150GMT

*SUP 1: 92.270 - Hourly resistance Sept 21 now support

*SUP 2: 92.105 - Hourly resistance Sept 22 now support

*SUP 3: 91.781 - Low Sept 22

*SUP 4: 91.526 - Low Sept 20

*COMMENTARY: Bulls failed to capitalise on Wednesday's rally with the index

remaining capped ahead of the 92.697 resistance. The index is again pressuring

the bear channel top (92.536) with layers of resistance 92.697-93.347 key this

week. Bulls need a close above 92.697 to shift focus to 93.200-347 where the

55-DMA is located. While 92.697 caps bears remain focused on 2017 lows with a

close below 91.526 to add weight to the bearish case.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 2.208-239 Support Key

*RES 4: 2.330 - 200-DMA 

*RES 3: 2.290 - High Aug 4 

*RES 2: 2.287 - High Sept 20 

*RES 1: 2.266 - Hourly support Sept 20 now resistance

*PRICE: 2.253 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 2.239 - Low Sept 22 

*SUP 2: 2.222 - Low Sept 19 

*SUP 3: 2.208 - Low Sept 18 

*SUP 4: 2.171 - Hourly resistance Sept 13 now support

*COMMENTARY: The closes above 55 (2.227) & 100 (2.237) DMAs adds to bullish

confidence with immediate focus now on 2.290. Bulls need a close above to

confirm immediate focus on 2.330-337 where the 200-DMA and daily highs are

located. O/B studies and the Bollinger top (2.307) are key concerns for bulls.

Layers of support are accumulating with bears needing a close below 2.239 to

ease bullish pressure and below 2.208 to shift focus lower.

NYMEX WTI TECHS: (X17) Remains Capped Ahead Of 200-DMA 

*RES 4: $51.45 - Low May 23 now resistance 

*RES 3: $51.01 - 200-DMA 

*RES 2: $50.93 - Hourly resistance Sept 20a 

*RES 1: $50.81 - High Sept 22

*PRICE: $50.57 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $50.29 - Low Sept 22 

*SUP 2: $50.07 - Low Sept 21 

*SUP 3: $49.57 - Low Sept 14 

*SUP 4: $49.33 - Hourly support Sept 13

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from Aug lows sees the contract hesitating ahead of

the 200-DMA and $51.01-51.45 region as daily studies linger at O/B levels. Bears

now look for a close below $50.07 to ease pressure on the 200-DMA and below

$49.57 to shift focus back to key DMAs $48.09-49.12. Bulls still need a close

above $51.45 to confirm a break of the 200-DMA and to focus on $52.62 May highs.

SPOT GOLD TECHS: $1304.6-1320.0 Resistance Region Key

*RES 4: $1320.0 - High Sept 18 

*RES 3: $1316.0 - High Sept 20 

*RES 2: $1309.9 - Hourly support Sept 20 now resistance 

*RES 1: $1304.6 - Low Sept 18 now resistance

*PRICE: $1292.7 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $1288.0 - Low Sept 21 

*SUP 2: $1286.4 - Bollinger band base 

*SUP 3: $1284.4 - 55-DMA 

*SUP 4: $1268.8 - 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Bears have so far failed to capitalise on the close below $1294.4

and focus shifting to 55 & 100-DMAs ($1268.8-1284.4) with gold regaining some

lost ground Friday. O/S studies and the Bollinger base are concerns for bears.

Initial resistance is noted at $1304.6 with bulls needing a close above to ease

immediate bearish pressure and above $1320.0 to shift focus to $1334.8-1342.1.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]