MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

2 October 2017

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Bulls Look For Close Above $1.1862

*RES 4: $1.1891 Hourly support Sept 21 now resistance 

*RES 3: $1.1862 Low Sept 20 now resistance 

*RES 2: $1.1833 Low Sept 25 now resistance 

*RES 1: $1.1801 Hourly support Oct 2 now resistance

*PRICE: $1.1777 @ 0330GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1759 Hourly support Sept 28 

*SUP 2: $1.1709 Low Aug 18 

*SUP 3: $1.1661 Low Aug 17 

*SUP 4: $1.1611 Low July 26

*COMMENTARY: Bulls failed to trouble $1.1862 Friday with the pair looking a

little heavy. Bulls continue to look for a close above $1.1862 to hint at a move

back to $1.2033-92 with above the 21-DMA ($1.1900) to confirm. While $1.1862

caps bears retain the upper hand and remain focused on $1.1583-1.1661 with a

close below $1.1709 to add weight. The Bollinger base ($1.1741) is the key

concern for bears and recently limited follow through.

     CABLE TECHS: Supported Ahead Of 21-DMA For Now

*RES 4: $1.3571 High Sept 25 

*RES 3: $1.3514 High Sept 26 

*RES 2: $1.3463 High Sept 27 

*RES 1: $1.3430 Hourly resistance Sept 29

*PRICE: $1.3368 @ 0330GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3343 Low Sept 28 

*SUP 2: $1.3334 21-DMA 

*SUP 3: $1.3328 High Sept 13 now support 

*SUP 4: $1.3159 Hourly resistance Sept 8 now support

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2017 and 15mth highs lacked follow through Wednesday with the

correction seeing bearish focus now on the $1.3328-1.3343 support region. Bears

need a close below $1.3328 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA, end bullish hopes

and shift focus back to $1.3158. Bulls still need a close above $1.3463 to gain

breathing room and above $1.3514 to shift focus back to $1.3595-1.3657.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: 55 & 200-DMAs Key This Week

*RES 4: Y114.49 Monthly High July 11 

*RES 3: Y113.94 Bollinger band top 

*RES 2: Y113.70 Low July 11 now resistance 

*RES 1: Y113.26 High Sept 27

*PRICE: Y112.80 @ 0330GMT

*SUP 1: Y112.22 Low Sept 29 

*SUP 2: Y112.00 200-DMA 

*SUP 3: Y111.92 Hourly support Sept 26 

*SUP 4: Y111.48 Low Sept 25

*COMMENTARY: Topside follow through above Y112.85 has been a little lacking

which is a concern with daily studies at O/B levels, momentum divergence and the

Bollinger top capping. In saying that, bulls are focused on tests of July highs

with above Y113.70 to add support to their case. Bears continue to look for a

close below the 200-DMA to ease bullish pressure and below Y111.48 to confirm a

shift in focus to key DMAs Y110.52-111.02.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Bears Need Close Below Y131.74

*RES 4: Y134.41 2017 High Sept 22

*RES 3: Y134.25 High Sept 25

*RES 2: Y133.49 Hourly resistance Sept 25

*RES 1: Y133.11 High Sept 29

*PRICE: Y132.87 @ 0330GMT

*SUP 1: Y132.49 Hourly support Sept29 

*SUP 2: Y132.07 Low Sept 27 

*SUP 3: Y132.00 21-DMA 

*SUP 4: Y131.97 Daily Bull channel base

*COMMENTARY: Despite pressure returning to the daily bull channel base and

21-DMA last week, bears have so far failed to manage the close below Y131.72

needed to confirm breaks with below the 55-DMA needed to shift immediate focus

to Y127.42-128.46 where Aug lows and the 100-DMA are noted. Layers of resistance

remain with bulls needing a close above Y133.49 to shift focus back to

Y134.25-59.

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: Gbp0.8841-0.8926 Resistance Region Key

*RES 4: Gbp0.8907 High Sept 15

*RES 3: Gbp0.8886 High Sept 22

*RES 2: Gbp0.8841 High Sept 29

*RES 1: Gbp0.8828 Hourly resistance Sept 29

*PRICE: Gbp0.8810 @ 0330GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.8802 Hourly support Sept 29 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.8787 Hourly resistance Sept 28 now support 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.8758 Hourly support Sept 27 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.8746 Low Sept 27

*COMMENTARY: Bulls took comfort in the bounce to end the week with layers of

resistance Gbp0.8841-0.8926 remaining key. Bulls now look for a close above

Gbp0.8841 to add to bullish confidence and above the 21-DMA (Gbp0.8926) to shift

initial focus back to the 55-DMA (Gbp0.9012). Bears continue to look for a close

below the 55-WMA (Gbp0.8716) to shift focus to Gbp0.8523.

     AUSSIE TECHS: $0.7743-98 Support Region Key

*RES 4: $0.7939 - 55-DMA

*RES 3: $0.7907 - Hourly support Sept 22 now resistance

*RES 2: $0.7883 - Hourly resistance Sept 27 

*RES 1: $0.7861 - High Sept 28

*PRICE: $0.781 @ 0330GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7798 - Monthly Low Sept 28 

*SUP 2: $0.7781 - Low July 17, 21-WMA 

*SUP 3: $0.7767 - 100-DMA 

*SUP 4: $0.7743 - High July 13 now support

*COMMENTARY: Consolidation below the 55-DMA saw the pair pressuring the

$0.7781-98 support region with the 100-DMA just below. O/S daily studies and the

Bollinger base ($0.7818) remain key concerns for bears. Bears look for a close

below $0.7743 to confirm breaks of key MAs and to shift focus to the 200-DMA

($0.7651). Bulls now look for a close above $0.7861 to gain breathing room and

above the 21-DMA ($0.7959) to shift focus back to $0.8036-0.8125.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: 92.724-995 Support Key

*RES 4: 94.476 - Low July 18 now resistance 

*RES 3: 94.145 - Monthly High Aug 16 

*RES 2: 93.762 - High Aug 18 

*RES 1: 93.666 - High Sept 28

*PRICE: 93.342 @ 0330GMT

*SUP 1: 93.083 - Hourly support Sept 29

*SUP 2: 92.995 - 55-DMA

*SUP 3: 92.898 - Hourly support Sept 26

*SUP 4: 92.724 - High Sept 25 now support

*COMMENTARY: Bulls took comfort in the close above the 55-DMA Wednesday but

hesitation ahead of the 93.762 resistance with daily studies at O/B levels is

less than ideal. Layers of support are accumulating with bears needing a close

below 92.898 to ease bullish pressure and below 97.724 to shift focus back to

91.526-781. Bulls look for a close above 93.762 to add support to the case for a

test of the 94.145-476 region where Aug highs are situated.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 2.284 Support Key This Week

*RES 4: 2.429 - Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 3: 2.423 - Monthly High Aug May 11 

*RES 2: 2.398 - Monthly High July 7 

*RES 1: 2.366 - High July 13

*PRICE: 2.361 @ 0330GMT

*SUP 1: 2.341 - Hourly resistance Oct 2 now support 

*SUP 2: 2.314 - Hourly support Sept 29 

*SUP 3: 2.296 - Low Sept 29 

*SUP 4: 2.284 - Hourly support Sept 27a

*COMMENTARY: Bulls are attempting to gain traction above the 200-DMA (2.325)

with pressure on 2.366. Bulls look for a close above 2.366 to confirm initial

focus on 2.398-2.437 with above 2.437 needed to return focus to 2017 highs. The

Bollinger top (2.381) is the key concern for bulls with potential to limit

follow through. Layers of support are building but the 2.284 support is key with

bears needing a close below to shift focus back to 2.208-2.214.

NYMEX WTI: (X17) Bears Need Close Below 200-DMA 

*RES 4: $52.86 - High Sept 28 

*RES 3: $52.77 - Bollinger band top 

*RES 2: $52.27 - Alternating hourly support/resistance 

*RES 1: $51.77 - High Sept 29

*PRICE: $51.52 @ 0330GMT

*SUP 1: $51.22 - Low Sept 25 

*SUP 2: $50.93 - 200-DMA 

*SUP 3: $50.29 - Low Sept 22 

*SUP 4: $50.07 - Low Sept 21

*COMMENTARY: The bearish key day reversal Thursday provided bears hope but a

close below the 200-DMA remains need to shift focus back to $50.07-29 where the

21-DMA ($50.26) is located. Correcting O/B studies add weight to the bearish

case. Layers of resistance are accumulating and weighing with bulls needing a

close above $52.27 to gain breathing room and above $52.86 to retain focus on

the bull channel top ($53.57).

SPOT GOLD: Overall Focus On $1238.1-1250.0

*RES 4: $1304.6 - Alternating daily support/resistance 

*RES 3: $1296.4 - High Sept 27 

*RES 2: $1290.3 - High Sept 29 

*RES 1: $1281.2 - Hourly support Sept 29 now resistance

*PRICE: $1275.3 @ 0330GMT

*SUP 1: $1271.9 - 100-DMA 

*SUP 2: $1265.3 - High Aug 8 now support 

*SUP 3: $1249.9 - Monthly Low Aug 8, 200-DMA 

*SUP 4: $1243.8 - Low July 26

*COMMENTARY: Gold remains heavy with immediate focus on $1265.3-1271.9 where the

100-DMA is located. Bears look for a close below $1265.3 to confirm a break of

the 100-DMA and shift focus to $1238.11250.0 where the bull channel base and

200-DMA are situated. Resistance layers are building with bulls needing a close

above $1281.2 to gain breathing room and above 1296.4 to shift focus back to

$1312.6-1320.0.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]