MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

4 October 2017

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: $1.1829-84 Resistance Now Key

*RES 4: $1.1833 Low Sept 25 now resistance 

*RES 3: $1.1829 55-DMA 

*RES 2: $1.1793 Hourly resistance Oct 2 

*RES 1: $1.1780 Hourly resistance Oct 2

*PRICE: $1.1768 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1730 Alternating hourly support/resistance 

*SUP 2: $1.1696 Low Oct 3 

*SUP 3: $1.1675 Daily Bear channel base 

*SUP 4: $1.1661 Low Aug 17

*COMMENTARY: Follow through was lacking on Tuesday's break of $1.1710 which is

less than ideal given daily studies looking to correct from O/S. Layers of

resistance remain with bulls needing a close above $1.1780 to hint at a

correction back to $1.1829-84 where 21 & 55-DMAs are noted. Above the 21-DMA

($1.1984) then targets $1.2033-92. Bears now need a close below $1.1732 to

retain focus on $1.1583-1.1661.

     CABLE TECHS: Bearish Focus Back On $1.3159

*RES 4: $1.3430 Hourly resistance Sept 29 

*RES 3: $1.3355 21-DMA 

*RES 2: $1.3343 Low Sept 28 now resistance 

*RES 1: $1.3297 Hourly resistance Oct 2

*PRICE: $1.3265 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3222 Low Oct 3 

*SUP 2: $1.3159 Hourly resistance Sept 8 now support 

*SUP 3: $1.3125 55-DMA 

*SUP 4: $1.3082 High Sept 6 now support

*COMMENTARY: The close below the 21-DMA Monday adds weight to the bearish case

with immediate focus having returned to the $1.3159 support. Bears look for a

close below to pressure the 55-DMA and below $1.2993 to shift focus back to the

200-DMA ($1.2760). The 21-DMA is now key resistance with bulls needing a close

above to ease renewed bearish pressure and shift initial focus back to

$1.3463-1.3514.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Bears Need Close Below 200-DMA

*RES 4: Y114.21 Bollinger band top 

*RES 3: Y113.70 Low July 11 now resistance 

*RES 2: Y113.26 High Sept 27 

*RES 1: Y112.95 Hourly resistance Oct 3

*PRICE: Y112.63 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y112.42 Hourly support Sept 29 

*SUP 2: Y112.22 Low Sept 29 

*SUP 3: Y111.95 200-DMA 

*SUP 4: Y111.48 Low Sept 25

*COMMENTARY: The Y113.26 resistance remains a key concern for bulls with

hesitation ahead of this level continuing and leaving the pair looking a little

heavy. Bulls need a close above Y113.26 to add support to their case for a test

of July highs with above Y113.70 confirming. Bears continue to look for a close

below Y112.22 to ease bullish pressure and below the 200-DMA to hint at a move

back to key DMAs Y110.54-111.05 with below Y111.48 to confirm.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Y131.74 & Y133.49 Levels Key

*RES 4: Y134.25 High Sept 25

*RES 3: Y133.49 Hourly resistance Sept 25

*RES 2: Y133.11 High Sept 29

*RES 1: Y132.88 High Oct 3

*PRICE: Y132.58 @ 0330GMT

*SUP 1: Y132.21 21-DMA 

*SUP 2: Y131.74 Low Sept 26 

*SUP 3: Y130.78 55-DMA 

*SUP 4: Y130.59 Low Sept 15

*COMMENTARY: Pressure continues to return to the 21-DMA and daily bull channel

base with bears now needing a close below Y131.74 to confirm a break and shift

immediate focus to Y130.59-78 where the 55-DMA is located. Daily studies have

corrected back to neutral levels and are giving few clues. Bulls continue to

look for a close above Y133.49 to reconfirm initial focus on retests of 2017

highs.

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above Gbp0.8920

*RES 4: Gbp0.8920 Hourly resistance Sept 14

*RES 3: Gbp0.8907 High Sept 15

*RES 2: Gbp0.8898 100-DMA, 21-DMA

*RES 1: Gbp0.8886 High Sept 22

*PRICE: Gbp0.8869 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.8863 Hourly support Oct 4 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.8848 Hourly resistance Oct 3 now support 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.8822 Low Oct 3 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.8801 Low Oct 2

*COMMENTARY: Bulls took comfort in the bounce Friday with layers of resistance

Gbp0.8898-0.8920 now key. Bulls again look for a close above Gbo0.8920 to shift

initial focus to tests of the 55-DMA (Gbp0.9013). Momentum has corrected back to

neutral levels with daily studies providing few clues. Bears now need a close

below Gbp0.8848 to ease pressure on resistance layers and below Gbp0.8801 to

retain focus on Gbp0.8717-26 where the 55-WMA and 200-DMA are noted.

     AUSSIE TECHS: Close Above $0.7883 To Target 21 & 55-DMAs

*RES 4: $0.7949 - 21-DMA

*RES 3: $0.7937 - 55-DMA

*RES 2: $0.7907 - Hourly support Sept 22 now resistance

*RES 1: $0.7883 - Hourly resistance Sept 27

*PRICE: $0.7860 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7838 - Hourly resistance Oct 3 now support 

*SUP 2: $0.7821 - Hourly support Oct 3 

*SUP 3: $0.7782 - Low July 17, 21-WMA 

*SUP 4: $0.7775 - 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Consolidation below the 55-DMA has seen the pair trade at fresh

3mth lows before again finding support ahead of the 21-WMA and 100-DMA which is

a concern for bears given daily studies looking to correct from O/S. Bulls now

need a close above $0.7883 to shift focus to $0.7907-49 where 21 & 55-DMAs are

noted and above the 21-DMA to target $0.8036-0.8125. Bears need a close below

$0.7821 to retain immediate focus on $0.7743-82.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Channel Top Capping

*RES 4: 93.920 - High Oct 3 

*RES 3: 93.794 - Hourly support Oct 3 now resistance 

*RES 2: 93.628 - Hourly resistance Oct 3 

*RES 1: 93.434 - Alternating hourly support/resistance

*PRICE: 93.409 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 93.307 - Hourly support Oct 2a

*SUP 2: 93.083 - Hourly support Sept 29

*SUP 3: 92.955 - 55-DMA

*SUP 4: 92.724 - High Sept 25 now support

*COMMENTARY: The lack of topside follow through Tuesday is less than ideal given

the daily bull channel top capping, O/B daily studies and the Bollinger band top

(93.781). Bears now look for a close below 93.307 to confirm focus on 92.724-955

where the 55-DMA is noted. Bears still need a close below 92.724 to hint at a

move back to 91.526-781 with below the 21-DMA (92.475) to confirm. Bulls now

need a close above 93.638 to return pressure to 93.920.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 2.284 Support Key

*RES 4: 2.423 - Monthly High Aug May 11 

*RES 3: 2.398 - Monthly High July 7 

*RES 2: 2.371 - High Oct 2 

*RES 1: 2.341 - Hourly support Oct 3 now resistance

*PRICE: 2.324 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 2.312 - Hourly support Oct 4 

*SUP 2: 2.296 - Low Sept 29 

*SUP 3: 2.284 - Hourly support Sept 27a 

*SUP 4: 2.266 - Alternating hourly support/resistance

*COMMENTARY: Recent topside hesitation is a concern given correcting O/B studies

now weighing. Pressure on the 200-DMA (2.323) has taken its toll with a break

below but the 2.284 support remains key. Bears need a close below 2.284 to

confirm an easing of bullish pressure & shift focus back to 2.208-2.245 where

key DMAs are located. Bulls continue to look for a close above 2.371 to confirm

initial focus on 2.398-2.437 & above 2.437 to return focus to 2017 highs.

NYMEX WTI TECHS: (X17) Bulls Need Close Above 21-DMA 

*RES 4: $51.22 - Low Sept 25 now resistance 

*RES 3: $50.79 - Hourly resistance Oct 2 

*RES 2: $50.37 - 21-DMA 

*RES 1: $50.22 - Hourly support Oct 3 now resistance

*PRICE: $50.04 @ 0330GMT

*SUP 1: $49.91 - Hourly support Oct 4 

*SUP 2: $49.57 - Low Sept 14 

*SUP 3: $49.33 - Hourly support Sept 13 

*SUP 4: $49.14 - 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The bearish key day reversal Thursday provided the catalyst for a

sell-off and close below the 200-DMA ($50.90) that sees focus on layers of

support $48.32-49.57. Bears now look for a close below $49.57 to initially

pressure the 55-DMA ($49.14). Correcting studies add weight to the bearish case.

Layers of resistance are accumulating with bulls needing a close above the

21-DMA to gain breathing room and above $51.77 to return focus to $52.86-53.64.

SPOT GOLD TECHS: $1281.2-1296.4 Resistance Region Key

*RES 4: $1296.4 - High Sept 27 

*RES 3: $1290.3 - High Sept 29 

*RES 2: $1281.2 - Hourly support Sept 29 now resistance 

*RES 1: $1277.6 - Hourly resistance Oct 2

*PRICE: $1274.8 @ 0330GMT

*SUP 1: $1265.3 - High Aug 8 now support 

*SUP 2: $1251.2 - 200-DMA 

*SUP 3: $1249.9 - Monthly Low Aug 8 

*SUP 4: $1243.8 - Low July 26

*COMMENTARY: Gold remains heavy with immediate focus on $1265.3. Bears look for

a close below $1265.3 to confirm a break of the 100-DMA ($1272.4) and shift

focus to $1239.2-1251.2 where the bull channel base and 200-DMA are situated.

Resistance layers remain with bulls needing a close above $1281.2 to gain

breathing room and above $1296.4 to shift focus back to $1306.3-1320.0.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]