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Free AccessMNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis
2 November 2017
By Kyle Shortland
Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis
Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s
EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Remains Capped Ahead of 100-DMA
*RES 4: $1.1826 55-DMA
*RES 3: $1.1785 Hourly resistance Oct 26
*RES 2: $1.1725 Low Oct 23 now resistance
*RES 1: $1.1695 100-DMA
*PRICE: $1.1658 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: $1.1575 Low Oct 27
*SUP 2: $1.1506 Daily bear channel base
*SUP 3: $1.1478 Low July 20
*SUP 4: $1.1369 High July 5 now support
*COMMENTARY: Following the topside failure around the 55-DMA ($1.1828) last week
the pair headed lower with bears focused on $1.1478-1.1575 where the bear
channel base is noted. The Bollinger base ($1.1591) remains the key concern and
currently limits follow through. Bulls need a close above the 100-DMA to ease
bearish pressure and above $1.1725 to target the 55-DMA. Bears need a close
below $1.1575 to add weight to their case.
CABLE TECHS: $1.3340 Resistance Remains Key
*RES 4: $1.3430 Hourly resistance Sept 29
*RES 3: $1.3340 Low Sept 28 now resistance
*RES 2: $1.3320 High Nov 1
*RES 1: $1.3317 Bollinger band top
*PRICE: $1.3272 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: $1.3240 Low Nov 1
*SUP 2: $1.3225 Hourly resistance Oct 31a now support
*SUP 3: $1.3180 55-DMA
*SUP 4: $1.3152 Alternating hourly support/resistance
*COMMENTARY: Cable currently trades sideways in a broad $1.3024-1.3340 range.
Having failed to trouble the $1.2995-1.3024 support and bouncing from ahead of
the 100-DMA ($1.3081) resulted in correction higher with focus now on $1.3340.
Bulls look for a close above $1.3340 to end bearish hopes and initially target
$1.3461-1.3514. Below the 55-DMA is needed to shift focus back to
$1.2995-1.3081.
DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Below Y112.96 To End Bullish Hopes
*RES 4: Y115.62 High Jan 19
*RES 3: Y115.24 Falling LT weekly TL
*RES 2: Y114.49 Monthly High July 11
*RES 1: Y114.26 Hourly resistance Nov 1
*PRICE: Y113.90 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: Y113.72 High Oct 31 now support
*SUP 2: Y113.52 Alternating hourly support/resistance
*SUP 3: Y113.22 Hourly support Oct 31
*SUP 4: Y113.04 21-DMA
*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of Y114.49 is less than ideal given daily studies
lingering around modestly O/B and looking to correct. In saying that, bears need
a close below Y113.72 to gain breathing room and below Y112.96 to confirm a
break of the 21-DMA and confirm focus on Y111.32-112.30. The Bollinger band top
is noted at (Y114.41) and is the key concern. Bulls need a close above Y114.49
to reconfirm a bullish bias and shift initial focus to Y115.24-62.
EURO-YEN TECHS: Y132.95-133.50 Resistance Now Key
*RES 4: Y134.50 2017 High Oct 25
*RES 3: Y133.50 Hourly support Oct 24
*RES 2: Y133.12 Hourly resistance Oct 26
*RES 1: Y132.95 Hourly resistance Oct 27
*PRICE: Y132.77 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: Y132.23 Hourly support Oct 31
*SUP 2: Y131.77 Hourly support Oct 31a
*SUP 3: Y131.45 Low Oct 30
*SUP 4: Y131.37 Bollinger band base
*COMMENTARY: Bears failed to gain traction below the 55-DMA (Y131.89) with the
bounce seeing focus return to Y132.95-133.50. Bulls need a close above Y133.50
to confirm a break of the 21-DMA (Y132.76) & return focus to the key Y134.59
resistance. Bears still need a close below Y132.23 to ease bullish pressure and
below Y131.45 to confirm a break of the 55-DMA and shift immediate focus to
Y130.24-59 and overall focus to Y127.50.
EURO-STERLING TECHS: Uncomfortable Below 200-DMA
*RES 4: Gbp0.8896 21-DMA
*RES 3: Gbp0.8848 High Oct 30
*RES 2: Gbp0.8826 High Oct 31
*RES 1: Gbp0.8796 Hourly resistance Oct 31
*PRICE: Gbp0.8777 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: Gbp0.8755 200-DMA
*SUP 2: Gbp0.8733 Low Nov 1
*SUP 3: Gbp0.8721 55-WMA
*SUP 4: Gbp0.8718 Low June 16
*COMMENTARY: The dip below the 200-DMA lacked follow through with the Gbp0.8718
support remaining key. Bears need a close below Gbp0.8718 to confirm a break of
the 55-DMA and shift immediate focus to Gbp0.8649. Bulls now look for a close
above Gbp0.8796 to ease bearish pressure and above Gbp0.8848 to shift focus back
to Gbp0.8896-0.8901 where the 21-DMA is located. A weekly close below weekly
Bull channel base (Gbp0.8830) is needed to add weight to the bearish case.
AUSSIE TECHS: Above Channel Top Targets 55 & 100-DMAs
*RES 4: $0.7835 - 100-DMA
*RES 3: $0.7787 - Daily Bear channel top
*RES 2: $0.7770 - 21-DMA
*RES 1: $0.7739 - Hourly resistance Oct 25
*PRICE: $0.7720 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: $0.7689 - Hourly support Nov 2
*SUP 2: $0.7639 - Low Oct 31
*SUP 3: $0.7622 - Low Oct 27
*SUP 4: $0.7564 - Low June 26
*COMMENTARY: Bears failed to manage the close below $0.7622 needed to add weight
to the case for a test of $0.7513-64 where the bear channel base ($0.7546) is
situated. Bulls take comfort in the pair trading above the 200-DMA ($0.7695)
with bears now needing a close below $0.7689 to ease renewed bullish pressure.
Bulls still need a close above the channel top to initially shift focus to
$0.7835-0.7909 where 100 & 55-DMAs are situated.
US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: 94.267 Support Now Key
*RES 4: 95.464 - Low July 13 now resistance
*RES 3: 95.436 - Daily Bull channel top
*RES 2: 95.167 - High July 20
*RES 1: 94.927 - Hourly resistance Oct 27
*PRICE: 94.545 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: 94.267 - High Oct 6 now support
*SUP 2: 93.923 - 100-DMA
*SUP 3: 93.826 - 21-DMA
*SUP 4: 93.477 - Low Oct 26
*COMMENTARY: Bulls have failed to capitalise on last week's test of the bull
channel top but take comfort in support emerging ahead of the 100-DMA on dips.
Bears now need a close below the 94.267 to initially pressure 100 & 21-DMAs and
below the 21-DMA to shift focus to 92.724-93.457. Overall below 92.724 is needed
to target 2017 lows. Bulls now look for a close 94.927 to reconfirm focus on
95.167-464 where the bull channel top is situated.
US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 2.349 Support Key Today
*RES 4: 2.434 - Hourly resistance Oct 27
*RES 3: 2.419 - Hourly support Oct 27 now resistance
*RES 2: 2.401 - High Nov 1
*RES 1: 2.385 - Hourly support Nov 1 now resistance
*PRICE: 2.361 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: 2.349 - Low Nov 1
*SUP 2: 2.314 - 200-DMA
*SUP 3: 2.278 - Low Oct 16
*SUP 4: 2.262 - 55-DMA
*COMMENTARY: The break of the 21-DMA (2.361) and the 2.352 support have so far
lacked follow through. Resistance layers accumulating adds weight to the bearish
case with a close below 2.349 now needed to shift immediate focus to the 200-DMA
and overall focus back to 2.245-2.278 where 55 & 100-DMAs are located. The 2.419
resistance remains key with bulls needing a close above to return initial focus
to 2.477 and overall focus to 2.544-580.
NYMEX WTI: (Z17) $53.63-89 Support Now Key
*RES 4: $55.89 - High Feb 21
*RES 3: $55.41 - Daily Bull channel top
*RES 2: $55.22 - High Nov 1
*RES 1: $54.69 - Hourly resistance Nov 1
*PRICE: $54.29 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $53.89 - Low Nov 1
*SUP 2: $53.63 - Hourly support Oct 27
*SUP 3: $53.14 - Hourly support Oct 27a
*SUP 4: $52.86 - High Oct 26 now support
*COMMENTARY: The rejection ahead of the daily bull channel top is less than
ideal for bulls given daily studies looking to correct from O/B and the
Bollinger top ($54.87) limiting follow through. The marginal break of $53.93 has
lacked follow through with bears now needing a close below $53.63 to shift
initial focus back to $52.86. Bulls now need a close above $54.69 to gain
breathing room and setup for another test of the channel top.
SPOT GOLD TECHS: Flirting With 21-DMA, $1283.7 Remains Key
*RES 4: $1296.6 - 55-DMA
*RES 3: $1291.1 - Hourly resistance Oct 19
*RES 2: $1283.7 - High Oct 24
*RES 1: $1281.4 - 21-DMA
*PRICE: $1279.8 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $1272.5 - Hourly support Nov 1
*SUP 2: $1267.7 - Low Oct 31 & Nov 1
*SUP 3: $1262.4 - Bollinger band base
*SUP 4: $1261.1 - 200-DMA
*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of the 200-DMA continues and sees pressure back on
the 21-DMA. Bulls continue to look for a close above $1283.7 to confirm a break
of the 21-DMA, easing bearish pressure & initially correcting back to
$1291.1-1296.8 where the 55-DMA is found. Bears still need a close below the
200-DMA to add weight to their case for the move currently targeting
$1243.8-1250.9 where the channel base is noted.
--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.