MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

7 November 2017

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Bears Need Close Below $1.1575

*RES 4: $1.1708 100-DMA 

*RES 3: $1.1690 High Nov 3 

*RES 2: $1.1639 Hourly support Nov 3 now resistance 

*RES 1: $1.1624 High Nov 6

*PRICE: $1.1609 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1575 Low Oct 27 

*SUP 2: $1.1482 Daily bear channel base 

*SUP 3: $1.1478 Low July 20 

*SUP 4: $1.1369 High July 5 now support

*COMMENTARY: Bears took comfort in the 100-DMA capping attempts to break higher

last week with focus currently on $1.1478-1.1575 where the bear channel base is

noted. O/S daily studies and the Bollinger band base ($1.1544) remain key

concerns for bears with a close below $1.1575 to add weight to their case.

Layers of resistance remain with bulls needing a close above the bear channel

top ($1.1757) to shift focus to $1.1817-80.

     CABLE TECHS: Broad Sideways Trading Continues

*RES 4: $1.3430 Hourly resistance Sept 29 

*RES 3: $1.3343 Low Sept 28 now resistance 

*RES 2: $1.3320 High Nov 1 

*RES 1: $1.3198 55-DMA

*PRICE: $1.3169 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3134 Hourly resistance Nov 2 now support 

*SUP 2: $1.3061 Weekly Bull Channel Base 

*SUP 3: $1.3024 Monthly Low Oct 6 

*SUP 4: $1.2995 High Sept 1 now support

*COMMENTARY: Cable remains confined to a broad $1.3024-1.3340 range. Despite

focus shifting lower bears have failed to trouble the key $1.2995 support. Bears

continue to look for a close below the $1.2995 support to confirm a break of key

supports, initially targeting the 200-DMA with overall focus shifting to $1.2587

June lows. Above the 55-DMA is needed to ease bearish pressure and return focus

to $1.3320-43.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: False Break Leaves Pair Looking Heavy

*RES 4: Y115.15 Falling LT weekly TL 

*RES 3: Y114.72 Hourly resistance Nov 6 

*RES 2: Y114.42 Hourly resistance Nov 6a 

*RES 1: Y114.22 Hourly resistance Nov 6

*PRICE: Y113.98 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Y113.52 Alternating hourly support/resistance 

*SUP 2: Y113.22 21-DMA 

*SUP 3: Y112.95 Low Oct 31 

*SUP 4: Y112.74 Hourly resistance Oct 19 now support

*COMMENTARY: The break of the key Y114.49 resistance lacked follow through with

the close back below Y114.00 negating the break and leaving the pair looking

heavy as focus remains on Y112.95-113.52. Overall bears need a close below

Y112.95 confirm a break of the 21-DMA and confirm focus on Y111.46-112.30. Bulls

now look for a close above Y115.62 to shift focus to tests of 2017 highs. Daily

studies are well placed for a fresh leg lower.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Close Above Y133.14 To Target 2017 High

*RES 4: Y134.50 2017 High Oct 25

*RES 3: Y133.50 Hourly support Oct 24

*RES 2: Y133.14 High Nov 2

*RES 1: Y132.61 Hourly support Nov 6 now resistance

*PRICE: Y132.27 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Y132.08 55-DMA 

*SUP 2: Y131.77 Hourly support Oct 31a 

*SUP 3: Y131.45 Low Oct 30 

*SUP 4: Y130.68 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Pressure has returned to the 55-DMA following recent topside

failures around the Y133.14 level. Bulls continue to look for a close above

Y133.14 to confirm an easing of bearish pressure and to shift immediate focus to

Y134.50-59. A close above Y134.59 potentially targets Y139.00-141.00. Bears need

a close below the 55-DMA to ease bullish pressure and below Y131.45 to shift

immediate focus to Y130.59-68 and overall focus to Y127.50.

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: Looking Heavy Again

*RES 4: Gbp0.8913 Hourly resistance Now 3a 

*RES 3: Gbp0.8893 Hourly resistance Nov 3 

*RES 2: Gbp0.8862 Hourly support Nov 3 now resistance 

*RES 1: Gbp0.8836 Hourly resistance Nov 6

*PRICE: Gbp0.8813 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.8810 Hourly support Nov 7 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.8762 200-DMA 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.8733 Low Nov 1 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.8721 55-WMA

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from last week's low and dip below the 200-DMA has

stalled ahead of layers of resistance Gbp0.8942-74 where the 55 & 100-DMAs are

situated. The sell-off from this region continued Monday with focus having

returned to the key Gbp0.8718-21 support region where the 55-WMA is located.

Bulls now need a close above Gbp0.8862 to shift focus back to Gbp0.8942-74.

     AUSSIE TECHS: $0.7622 Support Key This Week

*RES 4: $0.7837 - 100-DMA

*RES 3: $0.7757 - Daily Bear Channel Top

*RES 2: $0.7739 - Hourly resistance Oct 25

*RES 1: $0.7695 - Hourly resistance Nov 7

*PRICE: $0.7685 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7667 - Hourly resistance Nov 6 now support 

*SUP 2: $0.7636 - Low Nov 3 

*SUP 3: $0.7622 - Low Oct 27 

*SUP 4: $0.7564 - Low June 26

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of the $0.7622 support remains a concern for bears

given daily studies looking to correct from O/S. Bears continue to look for a

close below $0.7622 to add weight to the case for a test of $0.7519-64 where the

channel base is located. O/S studies remain the key concern for bears. Bulls

still need a close above the channel top ($0.7757) to shift focus to

$0.7837-0.7909 where 100 & 55-DMAs are situated.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: O/B Daily Studies Looking To Correct

*RES 4: 95.464 - Low July 13 now resistance 

*RES 3: 95.167 - High July 20 

*RES 2: 95.077 - Hourly resistance Nov 6 

*RES 1: 94.834 - Alternating hourly support/resistance

*PRICE: 94.739 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 94.700 - Hourly support Nov 7

*SUP 2: 94.408 - Low Nov 3

*SUP 3: 94.267 - High Oct 6 now support

*SUP 4: 93.845 - 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Bulls have failed to capitalise on recent tests of the bull channel

top but take comfort in support emerging ahead of the 100-DMA on dips. Bears

need a close below the 94.267 to initially pressure 100 & 21-DMAs and below the

100-DMA to shift focus to 92.724-93.477. Overall below 92.724 is needed to

target 2017 lows. Bulls now need a close above 95.167 to reconfirm a bullish

bias and initially target the channel top (95.623).

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Immediate Focus On 200-DMA

*RES 4: 2.401 - High Nov 1 

*RES 3: 2.385 - Hourly support Nov 1 now resistance 

*RES 2: 2.365 - Hourly resistance Nov 2 

*RES 1: 2.333 - Hourly resistance Nov 6

*PRICE: 2.329 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 2.313 - 200-DMA 

*SUP 2: 2.278 - Low Oct 16 

*SUP 3: 2.266 - 55-DMA, Bollinger band base 

*SUP 4: 2.262 - 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The yield remains heavy with focus having shifted to the 200-DMA.

Bears look for a close below the 200-DMA to confirm initial focus on 2.245-2.278

where 55 & 100-DMAs are located. Layers of resistance accumulating are weighing

with bulls needing a close above 2.365 to gain breathing room and above 2.419 to

return initial focus to 2.477 and overall focus to 2.544-580. Daily studies are

well placed for further losses.

NYMEX WTI TECHS: (Z17) Bulls Targeting 200-WMA 

*RES 4: $59.69 - High June 30 2015 

*RES 3: $57.94 - Low June 30 2015 now resistance 

*RES 2: $57.82 - 2017 High Jan 6 

*RES 1: $57.61 - Daily Bull channel top (off Aug low)

*PRICE: $57.36 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $56.97 - Hourly support Nov 6 

*SUP 2: $56.28 - Hourly resistance Nov 6 now support 

*SUP 3: $55.62 - Hourly support Nov 3 

*SUP 4: $55.22 - High Nov 1 now support

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of the longer-term bull channel top came to an end

Friday with a rally that sees the contract pressuring 2017 highs and focus now

on $57.94-60.75 where the 200-WMA ($60.75) is situated. O/B daily studies remain

the key concern for bulls. Bears now need a close below $56.28 to ease bullish

pressure and below $55.22 to hint at a correction back to $53.89.

SPOT GOLD TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above $1284.1

*RES 4: $1299.6 - Bollinger band top 

*RES 3: $1296.0 - 55-DMA 

*RES 2: $1291.1 - Hourly resistance Oct 19 

*RES 1: $1284.1 - High Nov 2

*PRICE: $1279.7 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1274.4 - Hourly resistance Nov 6 now support 

*SUP 2: $1265.2 - Low Nov 3 

*SUP 3: $1262.2 - 200-DMA 

*SUP 4: $1260.6 - Monthly Low Oct 6

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of the 200-DMA continues which is less than ideal

for bears as pressure returns to the $1284.1 resistance. Bulls need a close

above $1284.1 to shift initial focus to $1291.1-1296.0 where the 55-DMA is found

and above $1306.0 to initially target $1320.0. Bears continue to look for a

close below the 200-DMA to add weight to their case for a test of the bull

channel base ($1252.6).

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]