MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

8 November 2017

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Bears Focused On Channel Base

*RES 4: $1.1713 100-DMA 

*RES 3: $1.1690 High Nov 3 

*RES 2: $1.1639 Hourly support Nov 3 now resistance 

*RES 1: $1.1624 High Nov 6

*PRICE: $1.1597 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1554 Low Nov 7 

*SUP 2: $1.1527 Bollinger band base 

*SUP 3: $1.1474 Daily bear channel base 

*SUP 4: $1.1369 High July 5 now support

*COMMENTARY: Bears took comfort in the 100-DMA capping last week with focus on

the bear channel base ($1.1474). O/S daily studies and the Bollinger band base

remain key concerns for bears with a close below $1.1554 now needed to add

weight to their case. Layers of resistance remain with bulls needing a close

above $1.1624 to ease immediate bearish pressure and above the channel top

($1.1749) to shift focus to $1.1813-80.

     CABLE TECHS: Broad Sideways Trading Continues

*RES 4: $1.3430 Hourly resistance Sept 29 

*RES 3: $1.3343 Low Sept 28 now resistance 

*RES 2: $1.3320 High Nov 1 

*RES 1: $1.3204 55-DMA

*PRICE: $1.3170 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3144 Hourly resistance Nov 7 now support 

*SUP 2: $1.3110 Low Nov 7 

*SUP 3: $1.3061 Weekly Bull Channel Base 

*SUP 4: $1.3024 Monthly Low Oct 6

*COMMENTARY: Cable remains confined to a broad $1.3024-1.3343 range. Despite

focus shifting lower bears have failed to trouble the key $1.2995 support. Bears

continue to look for a close below the $1.2995 support to confirm a break lower,

initially targeting the 200-DMA ($1.2863) with overall focus shifting to $1.2587

June lows. Above the 55-DMA is needed to ease bearish pressure and return focus

to $1.3320-43.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Bears Need Close Below Y113.52

*RES 4: Y115.15 Falling LT weekly TL 

*RES 3: Y114.72 Hourly resistance Nov 6 

*RES 2: Y114.42 Hourly resistance Nov 6a 

*RES 1: Y114.00 Hourly resistance Nov 7

*PRICE: Y113.76 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Y113.52 Alternating hourly support/resistance 

*SUP 2: Y113.29 21-DMA 

*SUP 3: Y112.95 Low Oct 31 

*SUP 4: Y112.74 Hourly resistance Oct 19 now support

*COMMENTARY: The break of the key Y114.49 resistance lacked follow through

Monday with the closes back below Y114.00 negating the break and leaving the

pair looking heavy as focus remains on Y112.95-113.52. Overall bears need a

close below Y112.95 confirm a break of the 21-DMA and confirm focus on

Y111.46-112.30. Bulls now look for a close above Y115.62 to shift focus to tests

of 2017 highs. Daily studies are well placed for a fresh leg lower.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Bears Now Need Close Below Y131.45

*RES 4: Y133.50 Hourly support Oct 24

*RES 3: Y133.14 High Nov 2

*RES 2: Y132.61 Hourly support Nov 6 now resistance

*RES 1: Y132.41 High Nov 7

*PRICE: Y131.94 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Y131.77 Hourly support Oct 31a 

*SUP 2: Y131.45 Low Oct 30 

*SUP 3: Y130.75 100-DMA 

*SUP 4: Y130.59 Low Sept 15

*COMMENTARY: Pressure returning to the 55-DMA (Y132.14) has taken its toll with

bears looking to gain traction below. Bears look for a close below Y131.45 to

shift immediate focus to Y130.59-75 where the 100-DMA is noted and overall focus

to Y127.50. Bulls now need a close above Y132.61 to return pressure to Y133.14

and above this level to confirm an easing of bearish pressure and shift focus to

Y134.50-59. A close above Y134.59 potentially targets Y139.00-141.00.

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: Looking Heavy Again

*RES 4: Gbp0.8913 Hourly resistance Now 3a 

*RES 3: Gbp0.8893 Hourly resistance Nov 3 

*RES 2: Gbp0.8862 Hourly support Nov 3 now resistance 

*RES 1: Gbp0.8836 Hourly resistance Nov 6

*PRICE: Gbp0.8806 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.8791 Low Nov 7 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.8763 200-DMA 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.8733 Low Nov 1 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.8721 55-WMA

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from last week's low and dip below the 200-DMA has

stalled ahead of layers of resistance Gbp0.8942-74 where the 55 & 100-DMAs are

situated. The sell-off from this region continues with focus having returned to

the key Gbp0.8718-21 support region where the 55-WMA is located. Bulls now need

a close above Gbp0.8862 to shift focus back to Gbp0.8942-74 and bears need a

close below Gbp0.8718 to target the channel base (Gbp0.8491).

     AUSSIE TECHS: $0.7622 Support Remains Key

*RES 4: $0.7838 - 100-DMA

*RES 3: $0.7747 - Daily Bear Channel Top

*RES 2: $0.7739 - Hourly resistance Oct 25

*RES 1: $0.7697 - 200-DMA

*PRICE: $0.7645 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7622 - Low Oct 27 

*SUP 2: $0.7581 - Bollinger band base 

*SUP 3: $0.7564 - Low June 26 

*SUP 4: $0.7506 - Daily Bear channel base

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of the $0.7622 support remains a concern for bears

given daily studies looking to correct from O/S. Bears continue to look for a

close below $0.7622 to add weight to the case for a test of $0.7506-64 where the

channel base is located. O/S studies remain the key concern for bears. Bulls

still need a close above the channel top ($0.7747) to shift focus to

$0.7838-0.7909 where 100 & 55-DMAs are situated.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: O/B Daily Studies Looking To Correct

*RES 4: 95.685 - Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 3: 95.464 - Low July 13 now resistance 

*RES 2: 95.167 - High July 20 

*RES 1: 95.149 - High Nov 7

*PRICE: 94.838 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 94.700 - Hourly support Nov 7

*SUP 2: 94.408 - Low Nov 3

*SUP 3: 94.267 - High Oct 6 now support

*SUP 4: 94.057 - 21-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Topside follow through is still lacking with the index remaining

capped ahead of 95.167. Bulls continue to look for a close above this level to

reconfirm a bullish bias and initially target the bull channel top. Layers of

support remain but 94.267 remains key. Bears need a close below the 94.267 to

initially pressure 100 & 21-DMAs and below the channel base to shift focus to

92.724-93.477. Overall below 92.724 is needed to target 2017 lows.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Flirting With 200-DMA

*RES 4: 2.401 - High Nov 1 

*RES 3: 2.385 - Hourly support Nov 1 now resistance 

*RES 2: 2.365 - Hourly resistance Nov 2 

*RES 1: 2.340 - High Nov 7

*PRICE: 2.312 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 2.278 - Low Oct 16 

*SUP 2: 2.270 - 55-DMA 

*SUP 3: 2.265 - 100-DMA 

*SUP 4: 2.245 - High Sept 26 now support

*COMMENTARY: The yield remains heavy with bears taking comfort in a dip below

the 200-DMA (2.311) adding weight to the case for a test of 2.245-278 where 55 &

100-DMAs are situated. Daily studies have room to move before O/S is an issue.

Layers of resistance remain and add to bearish confidence with bulls needing a

close above 2.365 to gain breathing room and above 2.419 to return initial focus

to 2.477 and overall focus to 2.544-580.

NYMEX WTI TECHS: (Z17) $55.22-56.28 Support Region Key 

*RES 4: $60.75 - 200-WMA 

*RES 3: $59.69 - High June 30 2015 

*RES 2: $57.94 - Low June 30 2015 now resistance 

*RES 1: $57.82 - 2017 High Jan 6

*PRICE: $57.02 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $56.83 - Low Nov 7 

*SUP 2: $56.28 - Hourly resistance Nov 6 now support 

*SUP 3: $55.62 - Hourly support Nov 3 

*SUP 4: $55.22 - High Nov 1 now support

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of the longer-term bull channel top came to an end

Friday with a rally that sees the contract pressuring 2017 highs and focus now

on $57.82-60.75 where the 200-WMA ($60.75) is situated. O/B daily studies remain

the key concern for bulls. Bears continue to look for a close below $56.28 to

ease bullish pressure and below $55.22 to hint at a correction back to $53.89.

SPOT GOLD TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above $1284.1

*RES 4: $1299.0 - Bollinger band top 

*RES 3: $1295.7 - 55-DMA 

*RES 2: $1291.1 - Hourly resistance Oct 19 

*RES 1: $1284.1 - High Nov 2

*PRICE: $1277.8 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1271.8 - Low Nov 7 

*SUP 2: $1265.2 - Low Nov 3 

*SUP 3: $1262.5 - 200-DMA 

*SUP 4: $1260.6 - Monthly Low Oct 6

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of the 200-DMA continues which is less than ideal

for bears as pressure returns to the $1284.1 resistance. Bulls need a close

above $1284.1 to shift initial focus to $1291.1-1295.7 where the 55-DMA is found

and above $1306.0 to initially target $1320.0. Bears continue to look for a

close below the 200-DMA to add weight to their case for a test of the bull

channel base ($1253.1).

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]