MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

9 November 2017

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Bears Focused On Channel Base

*RES 4: $1.1717 100-DMA 

*RES 3: $1.1690 High Nov 3 

*RES 2: $1.1639 Hourly support Nov 3 now resistance 

*RES 1: $1.1624 High Nov 6

*PRICE: $1.1591 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1554 Low Nov 7 

*SUP 2: $1.1519 Bollinger band base 

*SUP 3: $1.1466 Daily bear channel base 

*SUP 4: $1.1369 High July 5 now support

*COMMENTARY: Bears took comfort in the 100-DMA capping last week with focus on

the bear channel base ($1.1466). O/S daily studies and the Bollinger band base

remain key concerns for bears with a close below $1.1554 now needed to add

weight to their case. Layers of resistance remain with bulls needing a close

above $1.1624 to ease immediate bearish pressure and above the channel top

($1.1741) to shift focus to $1.1809-80.

     CABLE TECHS: $1.2995 Support Remains Key

*RES 4: $1.3343 Low Sept 28 now resistance 

*RES 3: $1.3320 High Nov 1 

*RES 2: $1.3209 55-DMA 

*RES 1: $1.3144 Alternating hourly support/resistance

*PRICE: $1.3123 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3105 Hourly support Nov 9 

*SUP 2: $1.3085 Low Nov 8 

*SUP 3: $1.3061 Weekly Bull Channel Base 

*SUP 4: $1.3024 Monthly Low Oct 6

*COMMENTARY: Cable remains confined to a broad $1.3024-1.3343 range. Despite

focus shifting lower bears have failed to trouble the key $1.2995 support. Bears

continue to look for a close below the $1.2995 support to confirm a break lower,

initially targeting the 200-DMA ($1.2866) with overall focus shifting to $1.2587

June lows. Above the 55-DMA remains needed to ease bearish pressure and return

focus to $1.3320-43.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Supported Ahead Of 21-DMA For Now

*RES 4: Y115.62 High Jan 19 

*RES 3: Y115.15 Falling LT weekly TL 

*RES 2: Y114.72 Hourly resistance Nov 6 

*RES 1: Y114.42 Hourly resistance Nov 6a

*PRICE: Y113.99 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Y113.40 Low Nov 8 

*SUP 2: Y113.37 21-DMA 

*SUP 3: Y112.95 Low Oct 31 

*SUP 4: Y112.74 Hourly resistance Oct 19 now support

*COMMENTARY: The break of the Y113.52 support has so far lacked follow through

having bounced from ahead of the 21-DMA. Bears now look for a close below

Y112.95 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and to shift focus to Y111.46-112.30

where key DMAs are situated. The bounce from ahead of the 21-DMA increases the

risk of a move back to Y114.72 with a close above needed to reconfirm a bullish

bias and above Y115.62 to shift focus to tests of 2017 highs.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Y132.61 Resistance Key Today

*RES 4: Y133.50 Hourly support Oct 24

*RES 3: Y133.14 High Nov 2

*RES 2: Y132.61 Hourly support Nov 6 now resistance

*RES 1: Y132.41 High Nov 7

*PRICE: Y132.13 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Y131.83 Hourly support Nov 8 

*SUP 2: Y131.40 Low Nov 8 

*SUP 3: Y130.83 100-DMA 

*SUP 4: Y130.59 Low Sept 15

*COMMENTARY: Bears are struggling to gain traction below the 55-DMA (Y132.19)

with the break of Y131.45 lacking follow through. Layers of resistance remain.

Bulls still need a close above Y132.61 to return pressure to Y133.14 and above

this level to confirm an easing of bearish pressure and to shift immediate focus

to Y134.50-59. A close above Y134.59 potentially targets Y139.00-141.00. Bears

now need a close below Y131.40 to add weight to their case.

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: Gbp0.8718 Support Remains Key

*RES 4: Gbp0.8913 Hourly resistance Now 3 

*RES 3: Gbp0.8893 Hourly resistance Nov 3a 

*RES 2: Gbp0.8875 21-DMA 

*RES 1: Gbp0.8862 Hourly support Nov 3 now resistance

*PRICE: Gbp0.8829 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.8791 Low Nov 7 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.8763 200-DMA 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.8733 Low Nov 1 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.8721 55-WMA

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from last week's low and dip below the 200-DMA has

stalled ahead of layers of resistance Gbp0.8940-74 where the 55 & 100-DMAs are

situated. The sell-off from this region continues with focus having returned to

the key Gbp0.8718-21 support region where the 55-WMA is located. Bulls still

need a close above Gbp0.8862 to shift focus back to Gbp0.8940-74 and bears need

a close below Gbp0.8718 to target the channel base (Gbp0.8483).

     AUSSIE TECHS: $0.7622 Support Remains Key

*RES 4: $0.7768 - Low Oct 24 now resistance

*RES 3: $0.7739 - Hourly resistance Oct 25

*RES 2: $0.7737 - Daily Bear channel top

*RES 1: $0.7697 - 200-DMA

*PRICE: $0.7680 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7622 - Low Oct 27 

*SUP 2: $0.7577 - Bollinger band base 

*SUP 3: $0.7564 - Low June 26 

*SUP 4: $0.7496 - Daily Bear channel base

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of the $0.7622 support remains a concern for bears

given daily studies looking to correct from O/S. Bears continue to look for a

close below $0.7622 to add weight to the case for a test of $0.7496-0.7564 where

the channel base is located. O/S studies remain the key concern for bears. Bulls

now need a close above $0.7768 to shift focus to $0.7839-0.7909 where 100 &

55-DMAs are situated.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: O/B Daily Studies Looking To Correct

*RES 4: 95.747 - Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 3: 95.464 - Low July 13 now resistance 

*RES 2: 95.167 - High July 20 

*RES 1: 94.965 - Hourly resistance Nov 8

*PRICE: 94.903 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 94.700 - Low Nov 7

*SUP 2: 94.408 - Low Nov 3

*SUP 3: 94.267 - High Oct 6 now support

*SUP 4: 94.148 - 21-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Topside follow through is still lacking with the index remaining

capped ahead of 95.167. Bulls continue to look for a close above this level to

reconfirm a bullish bias and initially target the bull channel top. Layers of

support remain but 94.267 remains key. Bears need a close below the 94.267 to

initially pressure 100 & 21-DMAs and below the channel base to shift focus to

92.724-93.477. Overall below 92.724 is needed to target 2017 lows.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 2.304 & 2.365 Levels Key

*RES 4: 2.401 - High Nov 1 

*RES 3: 2.385 - Hourly support Nov 1 now resistance 

*RES 2: 2.365 - Hourly resistance Nov 2 

*RES 1: 2.340 - High Nov 7

*PRICE: 2.329 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 2.304 - Low Nov 8 

*SUP 2: 2.278 - Low Oct 16 

*SUP 3: 2.273 - 55-DMA 

*SUP 4: 2.267 - 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Bears failed to capitalise on the marginal close below the 200-DMA

(2.311) with bulls taking comfort in Wednesday's recovery. Layers of resistance

remain. Bulls need a close above 2.365 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA (2.355)

easing bearish pressure, and above 2.419 to return initial focus to 2.477 and

overall focus to 2.544-580. Bears now need a close below 2.304 to confirm a

break of the 200-DMA and target 2.245-278.

NYMEX WTI TECHS: (Z17) Greatly Increased Correction Risk 

*RES 4: $59.69 - High June 30 2015 

*RES 3: $57.94 - Low June 30 2015 now resistance 

*RES 2: $57.92 - 2017 High Nov 8 

*RES 1: $57.11 - Hourly resistance Nov 8

*PRICE: $56.90 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $56.28 - Hourly resistance Nov 6 now support 

*SUP 2: $55.62 - Hourly support Nov 3 

*SUP 3: $55.22 - High Nov 1 now support 

*SUP 4: $53.75 - Low Oct 30

*COMMENTARY: A bearish key day reversal combined with momentum divergence and

daily studies looking to correct from very O/B greatly increases the risk of a

correction. Bears continue to look for a close below $56.28 to confirm an easing

of bullish pressure and below $55.22 to hint at a move back to $53.66-75 where

the 21-DMA is noted. Bulls now need a close above $57.94 to reconfirm a bullish

bias targeting the 200-WMA ($60.75).

SPOT GOLD TECHS: 55-DMA Resistance Now Key

*RES 4: $1297.9 - Bollinger band top 

*RES 3: $1295.7 - 55-DMA 

*RES 2: $1291.1 - Hourly resistance Oct 19 

*RES 1: $1287.2 - High Nov 8

*PRICE: $1281.0 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1278.6 - Hourly support Nov 8 

*SUP 2: $1271.8 - Low Nov 7 

*SUP 3: $1265.2 - Low Nov 3 

*SUP 4: $1262.9 - 200-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of the 200-DMA has seen breaks of the 21-DMA

($1280.3) and bulls now needing a close above the 55-DMA to hint at a move

initially targeting $1320.0 with above $1306.0 to confirm. The $1243.8 $1265.2

support region where the 200-DMA and channel base ($1253.8) are located remains

key. Bears need a close below $1243.8 to shift initial focus to Sept lows

($1204.6) and overall focus to 2017 lows ($1146.0).

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]