MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

     Click below for today's MNI FX Technical Analysis Report -

https://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Rally Accelerates After $1.1690-$1.1730 Break

*RES 4: $1.1880/87 Oct 12 high, 61.8% of $1.2093-$1.1554

*RES 3: $1.1837 Oct 26 high

*RES 2: $1.1824 50% Fibo of $1.2093-$1.1554

*RES 1: $1.1803/05 76.4% of $1.1880-$1.1554, Nov 14 high

*PRICE: $1.1792 @0515GMT 

*SUP 1: $1.1735/40 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.1696 Initial rally high Nov 14, now support

*SUP 3: $1.1678 Nov 10 high, now support

*SUP 4: $1.1638 Nov 13 low

*COMMENTARY* Last Thursday's move back above the previously troublesome $1.1660

area was a positive, as was yesterday's rise through $1.1690-$1.1730 resistance.

This has seen the recovery accelerate, now moving slightly above the 76.4% Fibo

level at $1.1803. As a result, support now from $1.1740-$1.1735, the

$1.1696-$1.1678 area more important below. Through $1.1803 and look to

$1.1824-$1.1837 next, ahead of the $1.1880-$1.1887 region.

CABLE TECHS: Still Manoeuvring Within Recent Range

*RES 4: $1.3255 76.4% of $1.3322-$1.3039, 1% vol band

*RES 3: $1.3230/40 Nov 10 high, Nov 1 low

*RES 2: $1.3188/89 Nov 14 high, Initial low Nov 10

*RES 1: $1.3165/70 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.3143 @0525GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3095/05 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.3062 Nov 13 low

*SUP 3: $1.3027/39 Oct 6, Nov 3 lows

*SUP 4: $1.3005 1% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* Held support from above $1.3062 on Tuesday, thereby allowing some

recovery from within the recent range. a high of $1.3188 on the day, basically

in line with a 76.4% Fibo retrace of the previous $1.3230-$1.3062 fall. Will

need back above here, before the chance of chasing down that $1.3230 level and

then the more important $1.3255. In the meantime, support comes from

$1.3105-$1.3095 and then we are back to $1.3062 again.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS:  Downside Back Under Pressure As 50% Fibo Retrace Caps

*RES 4: Y114.07 Nov 9 high

*RES 3: Y113.91 Nov 14 high

*RES 2: Y113.72/73 Hourly highs Nov 13-14

*RES 1: Y113.47/57 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: Y113.26 @0535GMT

*SUP 1: Y113.03 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Y112.83/96 61.8% of Y111.65-Y114.74, Oct 31 low

*SUP 3: Y112.58 1.618 swing of Y113.09-Y113.91, 1% vol band

*SUP 4: Y112.38 76.4% Fibo of Y111.65-Y114.74

*COMMENTARY* The upside failed to move any higher than the 50% Fibo retrace

level at Y113.91 on Tuesday, before giving up some ground again. Today's fall

has broken below the previous Y113.22-Y113.09 support area, thereby leaving the

downside vulnerable to a test of key Y112.96-Y112.83 support levels. Any lower

and look to a deeper Y112.58-Y112.38 fall next. In the interim, Y113.47-Y113.73

provides resistance to any near term recovery.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Focus Back Higher After Break Above Y132.74-85 Resistance

*RES 4: Y136.42/47 Swing Y134.50-Y131.40, 16 month res line

*RES 3: Y134.50 Oct 25 high

*RES 2: Y134.23 1.618 swing of Y133.15-Y131.40

*RES 1: Y133.84/94 Nov 14 high, 1% volatility band

*PRICE: Y133.53 @0545GMT

*SUP 1: Y133.17 Hourly base Nov 14

*SUP 2: Y132.72 Initial high Nov 14, now support

*SUP 3: Y132.60 Nov 10 high, now support

*SUP 4: Y132.40 Hourly congestion area

*COMMENTARY* Tuesday saw a rally through Y132.74-Y132.85 resistance, thereby

confirming the near term bias for higher. Rally has reached a high of Y133.84 so

far, basically tracking the upper 1% volatility band, at Y133.94 by time today.

In the interim, support has also risen, the hourly base at Y133.17 now

protecting against any deeper Y132.72-Y132.60 corrective pullback. Above Y133.94

and rally can extend to Y134.23-Y134.50 next.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: 1% Volatility Band Stands In Way Of Stg0.9022-Stg0.9032

*RES 4: Stg0.9087 61.8% Fibo of Stg0.9306-Stg0.8733

*RES 3: Stg0.9054 2% volatility band

*RES 2: Stg0.9022/32 Oct 20, Oct 12 highs

*RES 1: Stg0.8985 1% volatility band

*PRICE: Stg0.8972 @0555GMT

*SUP 1: Stg0.8923 Nov 13 high, now support

*SUP 2: Stg0.8904 Initial high Nov 13, now support

*SUP 3: Stg0.8877/83 Nov 9 high, hourly base Nov 13

*SUP 4: Stg0.8863 Nov 8 high, now support

*COMMENTARY* The recovery has continued, most latterly surpassing both 76.4%

Fibo resistance from Stg0.8961 and the Oct 24 high at Stg0.8975. This now sees

the rally as tracking the upper 1% volatility band, ahead of an assault on last

month's previous Stg0.9022-Stg0.9032 highs. As a result, nearest support jumps

to Stg0.8923, any lower and look to Stg0.8904 to protect against anything more

damaging.

     AUSSIE TECHS: Fresh Fall Sees $0.7571-$0.7560 Support Next

*RES 4: $0.7695 Nov 10 high

*RES 3: $0.7666 Nov 13 high

*RES 2: $0.7650 Nov 14 high

*RES 1: $0.7625 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $0.7582 @0605GMT 

*SUP 1: $0.7571/76 Jul 5 low, 1% vol band

*SUP 2: $0.7560 1.618 swing of $0.7625-$0.7730

*SUP 3: $0.7535 Jun 22 low

*SUP 4: $0.7520 76.4% Fibo of $0.7333-$0.8126

*COMMENTARY* Fresh selling has seen Monday's $0.7609 low give way, as we make

our way back towards the lower 1% volatility band and Jul 5 low between

$0.7576-$0.7571. The latter then the protection against a further 0.7560 fall,

if the swing of the recent $0.7625-$.7730 rise plays out in full. As a result,

resistance comes initially from $0.7625 and then $0.7650. Below $0.7560 and

$0.7535-$0.7520 are next supports.

     GOLD TECHS: Brief Loss Of $1271.8 Support Is Quickly Reversed

*RES 4: $1296.1 76.4% Fibo of $1306.1-$1263.8

*RES 3: $1291.5 Oct 18 high

*RES 2: $1289.9 61.8% Fibo of $1306.1-$1263.8

*RES 1: $1284.3 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1280.5 @0607GMT

*SUP 1: $1273.5 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1269.9 Nov 14 low

*SUP 3: $1265.5 Nov 3 low

*SUP 4: $1263.8 Oct 27 low

*COMMENTARY* The move below the key $1271.8 support was brief and quickly

reversed on Tuesday. Now looking at $1284.3 for resistance, as we move back up

the recent range. Through here and then the $1289.9 Fibo level once again

becomes the marker to cross, before the upside is released to make further

inroads into the losses sustained since last month's $1306.1 high. Meanwhile,

$1273.5 support should hold any setbacks or caution advised again.

     OIL TECHS: NYMEX WTI: (Z17) Correction Risk Continues

*RES 4: $57.15 Nov 13 high

*RES 3: $56.75 Congestion area Nov 8-9, Nov 10-13

*RES 2: $56.30 Nov 13 low, now resistance

*RES 1: $55.79 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $55.07 @0610GMT                                   

*SUP 1: $54.68 38.2% Fibo of $49.44-$57.92

*SUP 2: $53.89 Nov 1 low

*SUP 3: $53.68 50% Fibo of $49.44-$57.92

*SUP 4: $53.11 Sep 28 high, now support

*COMMENTARY: Still suffering as a result of the bearish outside day last

Wednesday. In this respect, the loss of firstly $56.51 support and then the Nov

8 low at $56.41 has increased the risk for a downside correction. A low of

$54.81 so far, as we head toward next $54.68-$53.89 supports. In the meantime,

$55.79-$57.15 provides near term resistance against any recovery.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]