MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

21 November 2017

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Bears Need Close Below 21-DMA

*RES 4: $1.1880 High Oct 12

*RES 3: $1.1861 High Nov 15 

*RES 2: $1.1822 High Nov 17 

*RES 1: $1.1785 55-DMA

*PRICE: $1.1737 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1722 Low Nov 20 

*SUP 2: $1.1684 21-DMA 

*SUP 3: $1.1678 High Nov 10 now support 

*SUP 4: $1.1638 Hourly support Nov 9 & 10

*COMMENTARY: The break of the bear channel top and 100-DMA last week saw a

rally, only to remain capped ahead of the previously noted $1.1880 resistance.

Bulls continue to look for a close above $1.1880 to confirm traction above the

55-DMA ($1.1785) and initially target $1.2033. O/B Daily studies looking to

correct is less than ideal and the Bollinger top ($1.1834) recently limited

follow through. Bears need a close below the 21-DMA to target $1.1554.

     CABLE TECHS: Above $1.3343 To Shift Focus Higher

*RES 4: $1.3343 Low Sept 28 now resistance 

*RES 3: $1.3320 High Nov 1 

*RES 2: $1.3291 Bollinger band top 

*RES 1: $1.3279 High Nov 20

*PRICE: $1.3246 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3223 Hourly resistance Nov 17 now support 

*SUP 2: $1.3170 Low Nov 17 

*SUP 3: $1.3118 Weekly Bull Channel Base 

*SUP 4: $1.3060 Low Nov 13

*COMMENTARY: Cable remains confined to a broad $1.3024-1.3343 range. The

recovery from ahead of the range base is again struggling with the 55-DMA as a

lack of follow through on breaks persists. Bulls now need a close above $1.3279

to confirm a break of the 55-DMA and pressure the key $1.3343 level. Bears now

need a close below $1.3170 to ease pressure on resistance layers.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Y111.48 & Y112.72 Levels Remain Key

*RES 4: Y114.07 High Nov 9 

*RES 3: Y113.49 21-DMA 

*RES 2: Y113.33 High Nov 16 

*RES 1: Y112.72 Low Nov 16 now resistance

*PRICE: Y112.59 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Y112.35 Hourly resistance Nov 20 now support 

*SUP 2: Y111.71 100-DMA 

*SUP 3: Y111.65 Low Oct 16 

*SUP 4: Y111.48 Low Sept 25

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in support emerging ahead of 100 & 200-DMAs

(Y111.71-74) and a close above the 55-DMA. In saying that, bulls continue to

look for a close above Y112.72 to ease bearish pressure and shift initial focus

to Y113.33-49 where the 21-DMA is noted. Bears need a close below Y111.48 to

confirm a break of 100 & 200-DMAs with initial focus shifting to Y109.52 and

overall focus to Y107.30 2017 lows.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: 21-DMA & 100-DMAs Key

*RES 4: Y133.66 Hourly support Oct 24

*RES 3: Y133.18 High Nov 17

*RES 2: Y132.61 21-DMA

*RES 1: Y132.42 55-DMA

*PRICE: Y132.12 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Y131.83 Hourly resistance Nov 20 now support 

*SUP 2: Y131.26 100-DMA 

*SUP 3: Y131.17 Hourly support Nov 20 

*SUP 4: Y130.59 Low Sept 15

*COMMENTARY: Despite looking heavy bears failed to take out the 100-DMA with

bulls taking comfort in pressure returning to 21 & 55-DMAs. Bulls now look for a

close above the 21-DMA to confirm a break of the 55-DMA and shift focus back to

Y133.86-148.50. While the 21-DMA caps bears retain focus on the 100-DMA. Bears

look for a close below the 100-DMA to hint at a move back to Y127.42 with below

Y130.59 to add weight to their case.

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: Gbp0.8718 Support Remains Key

*RES 4: Gbp0.8968 High Now 16 

*RES 3: Gbp0.8952 100-DMA 

*RES 2: Gbp0.8904 High Nov 20 

*RES 1: Gbp0.8881 Hourly resistance Nov 20

*PRICE: Gbp0.8857 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.8837 Low Nov 13 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.8789 Low Nov 7 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.8779 200-DMA 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.8754 Bollinger band base

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from ahead of Gbp0.8718 failed ahead of the Gbp0.9022

resistance with the pair looking heavy again. The close below the 21-DMA

(Gbp0.8867) eased bullish pressure and shifts focus back to Gbp0.8718-79 where

the 55-WMA and 200-DMA are situated. Bulls now need a close above Gbp0.8904 to

ease bearish pressure and above Gbp0.9868 to shift initial focus to Gbp0.9107.

     AUSSIE TECHS: Bears Need Close Below $0.7519

*RES 4: $0.7695 - 200-DMA

*RES 3: $0.7656 - Daily Bear channel top

*RES 2: $0.7609 - High Nov 16

*RES 1: $0.7579 - Hourly support Nov 17 now resistance

*PRICE: $0.7536 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7519 - Low June 9 

*SUP 2: $0.7456 - Weekly Bull channel base 

*SUP 3: $0.7415 - Daily Bear channel base 

*SUP 4: $0.7365 - Low May 12

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of the 200-DMA in recent weeks retains the

integrity of the daily bear channel with focus currently on the $0.7456-0.7519

region where the bull channel base is situated. Bears need a close below $0.7519

to reconfirm the bearish bias and below the weekly bull channel base to target

$0.7319-65. Bulls look for a close above $0.7609 to gain breathing room and hint

at a correction back to $0.7656-0.7729.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: 94.365-650 Resistance Key

*RES 4: 95.167 - High July 20 

*RES 3: 94.650 - High Nov 10 

*RES 2: 94.372 - 21-DMA 

*RES 1: 94.178 - Hourly resistance Nov 14

*PRICE: 94.021 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 93.897 - Hourly support Nov 20

*SUP 2: 93.602 - 100-DMA

*SUP 3: 93.431 - 55-DMA

*SUP 4: 93.055 - Low Oct 19

*COMMENTARY: Losses defined last week with the close below the 21-DMA seeing

pressure back on key supports. Bulls take comfort in the bounce from ahead of

this region Monday but continue to look for a close above the 21-DMA to ease

bearish pressure and above 94.650 to shift focus back to 95.167-464. Bears

continue to look for a close below the 55-DMA to add weight to the case for a

move back to 2017 lows although a close below 92.724 remains needed to confirm.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 2.386-419 Resistance Key

*RES 4: 2.449 - Bollinger band top 

*RES 3: 2.434 - Hourly resistance Oct 27 

*RES 2: 2.419 - Hourly support Oct 27 now resistance 

*RES 1: 2.386 - Hourly resistance Nov 14

*PRICE: 2.367 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 2.347 - Hourly support Nov 20 

*SUP 2: 2.319 - Low Nov 15 

*SUP 3: 2.307 - 200-DMA 

*SUP 4: 2.304 - 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The correction lower from the last week's high continues to find

support ahead of the 200-DMA with the 2.273-3.319 support region now key. 55,

100 & 200-DMAs are noted in this region with bears now needing a close below

2.273 to confirm breaks of key DMAs shifting immediate focus to 2.207. Bulls

continue to look for a close above 2.419 to return initial focus to 2.477 and

overall focus to 2.544-580.

NYMEX WTI TECHS: (F18) $55.00-75 Support Key This Week 

*RES 4: $60.05 - High June 30 2015 

*RES 3: $59.08 - Daily bull channel top 

*RES 2: $58.14 - 2017 High Nov 8 

*RES 1: $57.37 - High Nov 13

*PRICE: $56.53 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $56.27 - Hourly resistance Nov 20 now support 

*SUP 2: $55.75 - Low Nov 20 

*SUP 3: $55.52 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 4: $55.00 - Weekly Low Nov 14

*COMMENTARY: The correction lower from 2017 highs found support ahead of the

21-DMA which provided the base for a rally and bullish close Friday. Bulls

currently focus on the $57.37-58.14 region with a close above to pressure the

bull channel top. Bears now need a close below $55.75 to ease bullish pressure

and below $55.00 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA ($55.52) and shift focus to

$52.86-53.96 where the 55-DMA is situated.

SPOT GOLD TECHS: Focus Back On Key Supports

*RES 4: $1306.0 - High Oct 16 

*RES 3: $1297.0 - Hourly Nov 17 

*RES 2: $1290.1 - Hourly resistance Nov 20 

*RES 1: $1281.1 - Alternating hourly support/resistance

*PRICE: $1280.1 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1274.9 - Low Nov 20 

*SUP 2: $1269.9 - Low Nov 14 

*SUP 3: $1264.8 - 200-DMA 

*SUP 4: $1260.1 - Monthly Low Oct 6

*COMMENTARY: Bulls failed to capitalise on Friday's close above the 55-DMA with

Friday's gains erased, gold looking heavy once more and focus back on the daily

bull channel base and 200-DMA. Bulls now look for a close above $1297.0 to

confirm a break of the 55-DMA ($1290.4) and confirm focus on $1306.0-1320.0.

Bears look for a close below the channel base to hint at a move back to July

lows ($1204.6).

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]