MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

2 January 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Bulls Focused On 2017 High

*RES 4: $1.2371 Low Dec 11 2014 now resistance

*RES 3: $1.2254 High Dec 25 2014

*RES 2: $1.2092 2017 High Sept 8

*RES 1: $1.2033 High Sept 20

*PRICE: $1.2013 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1961 High Nov 27 now support 

*SUP 2: $1.1910 High Dec 27 now support 

*SUP 3: $1.1879 Hourly support Dec 27 

*SUP 4: $1.1816 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The close above $1.1961 confirms initial focus on tests of 2017

highs and fresh 2017 highs to target $1.2254. Bulls take comfort in support

emerging on dips with bears needing a close below $1.1961 to ease bullish

pressure and below the 100-DMA to confirm pressure back on $1.1690. A close

below $1.1690 remains needed to shift focus to $1.1472-1.1552 where the 200-DMA

($1.1506) and Nov low are situated.

     CABLE TECHS: Bulls Targeting 2017 High

*RES 4: $1.3656 2017 High Sept 20 

*RES 3: $1.3595 High Sept 22 

*RES 2: $1.3549 High Nov 30 

*RES 1: $1.3524 Hourly resistance Jan 2

*PRICE: $1.3512 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3473 Hourly breakout level Dec 29 

*SUP 2: $1.3429 High Dec 27 now support 

*SUP 3: $1.3388 Hourly support Dec 27 

*SUP 4: $1.3368 Low Dec 27

*COMMENTARY: Bulls now look for a close above $1.3549 to add support to their

case for a move targeting 2017 highs. Since closing above the 21-DMA the pair

has gained support with bears now needing a close below $1.3473 to ease bullish

pressure and below $1.3388 to target a correction back to $1.3286-1.3329 where

the 55-DMA ($1.3298) is located.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Bears Focusing On Y110.83-111.98

*RES 4: Y114.07 High Nov 9 

*RES 3: Y113.74 High Dec 12 

*RES 2: Y113.44 High Dec 22 

*RES 1: Y113.13 Low Dec 26 now resistance

*PRICE: Y112.72 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Y111.98 Low Dec 6 

*SUP 2: Y111.66 200-DMA 

*SUP 3: Y111.35 Low Nov 29 

*SUP 4: Y110.83 Monthly Low Nov 27

*COMMENTARY: Bears take comfort in consolidation below 21 & 55-DMAs and the bull

channel base. Bulls need a close above Y113.13 to gain breathing room and hint

at a correction back to Y113.74-114.07. The closes below the 55-DMA (Y112.95)

confirmed a shift lower in focus with bears now targeting Y110.83-111.98 where

monthly lows, 100 & 200-DMAs are noted. Bears need a close below Y110.83 to

target 2017 lows (Y107.31).

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Y133.88 Support Remains Key

*RES 4: Y139.02 Monthly High Aug 2015

*RES 3: Y136.40 High Oct 21 2015

*RES 2: Y135.84 Low Oct 21 2015 now resistance

*RES 1: Y135.78 Bollinger band top

*PRICE: Y135.39 @ 2000GMT

*SUP 1: Y135.07 Hourly resistance Dec 29 now support 

*SUP 2: Y134.28 Hourly support Dec 27 

*SUP 3: Y133.88 Hourly support Dec 20 

*SUP 4: Y133.60 Hourly support Dec 19

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2+ year highs continue, adding support for a potential move

targeting Y139.02-141.05. The Bolli top (Y135.78) & O/B studies are key concerns

for bulls. Layers of support followed the pair higher with bears needing a close

below Y133.88 to ease bullish pressure and shift focus back to Y132.03-132.83

where the 100-DMA and bull channel base are noted. Immediate bullish focus is on

Y135.84-136.40 while Y133.88 supports.

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: 55-DMA & 100-DMA Key Levels

*RES 4: Gbp0.8981 High Nov 28 

*RES 3: Gbp0.8924 100-DMA 

*RES 2: Gbp0.8922 Low Nov 27 now resistance 

*RES 1: Gbp0.8893 High Dec 28

*PRICE: Gbp0.8890 @ 1030GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.8861 55-DMA 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.8826 Low Dec 20 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.8780 Hourly support Dec 15 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.8759 Lows Dec 14 & 15

*COMMENTARY: Despite trading above the 55-DMA the pair remains capped ahead of

the 100-DMA. Bulls still need a close above the 100-DMA to add support to their

case and confirm initial focus on Gbp0.8981-0.9048. O/B daily studies looking to

correct remain the key concern for bulls. Layers of support remain with bears

needing a close below the 55-DMA to ease pressure on resistance layers and below

Gbp0.8826 to shift initial focus back to Gbp0.8690-0.8759.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Remains Heavy

*RES 4: 93.122 - Hourly resistance Dec 27 

*RES 3: 92.956 - Low Dec 27 now resistance 

*RES 2: 92.788 - Hourly resistance Dec 28 

*RES 1: 92.518 - Hourly support Dec 29 now resistance

*PRICE: 92.182 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 92.080 - Low Dec 29

*SUP 2: 91.781 - Low Sept 22

*SUP 3: 91.526 - Low Oct 19 

*SUP 4: 91.011 - 2017 Low Sept 8

*COMMENTARY: The 21-DMA capping recently has resulted in a break of the bull

channel base (93.173) with the close below 92.496 confirming a return in focus

to tests of 2017 lows. Modestly O/S daily studies are less than ideal for bears.

Bulls continue to look for a close above the 21-DMA to gain breathing room and

above the 55-DMA to shift initial focus to 94.219 and overall focus to

95.167-464.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Focus Now On 2.344-404

*RES 4: 2.504 - High Dec 21 

*RES 3: 2.479 - High Dec 27 

*RES 2: 2.459 - Low Dec 26 now resistance 

*RES 1: 2.441 - High Dec 28

*PRICE: 2.405 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 2.404 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 2: 2.376 - 55-DMA 

*SUP 3: 2.344 - Low Dec 14 

*SUP 4: 2.297 - 200-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of the weekly bear channel top (2.534) combined

with waning momentum provided the impetus for a correction that eased bullish

pressure. Focus returned to 2.344-404 where key DMAs and the bull channel base

are noted. Bears now need a close below 2.344 to confirm breaks and initially

pressure the 200-DMA. Bulls need a close above 2.441 to gain breathing room and

above 2.479 to shift focus higher.

NYMEX WTI TECHS: (G18) Flirting with 200-WMA 

*RES 4: $63.28 - Daily Bull channel top (off Oct low) 

*RES 3: $62.23 - Weekly Bollinger band top 

*RES 2: $61.85 - High May 13 2015 

*RES 1: $60.84 - Daily Bull channel top (off June low)

*PRICE: $60.62 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $59.82 - Low Dec 29 

*SUP 2: $59.33 - Low Dec 27 

*SUP 3: $58.99 - Monthly High Nov 24 now support 

*SUP 4: $58.18 - Hourly support Dec 22

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from the dip back towards $55.88 resulted in a close

above $58.99 Tuesday with the contract flirting with the 200-WMA ($60.05). Bulls

look for a close above the bull channel top off June lows to initially target

$61.85-63.28 where monthly highs and the bull channel top off Oct lows are

noted. Bears now look for a close below $59.82 to ease bullish pressure and

below the 21-DMA to pressure the 55-DMA ($56.24).

SPOT GOLD TECHS: Above $1320.0 Confirms Focus on 2017 High

*RES 4: $1367.3 - Monthly High Aug 2 2016 

*RES 3: $1357.5 - 2017 High Sept 8 

*RES 2: $1334.8 - High Sept 13 

*RES 1: $1320.0 - High Sept 18

*PRICE: $1306.7 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1293.5 - Low Dec 29 

*SUP 2: $1281.5 - Low Dec 27 

*SUP 3: $1275.5 - 55-DMA 

*SUP 4: $1270.5 - 200-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from Dec lows has resulted in closes above the 55-DMA

and bear channel top with immediate focus now on $1320.0 following the break of

$1289.5. O/B daily studies and the Bollinger top ($1308.7) are concerns for

bulls. Bears need a close below the 100-DMA to ease immediate bullish pressure

and below the 21-DMA ($1269.2) to hint at a move back to Dec lows.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]