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Free AccessMNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis
2 January 2018
By Kyle Shortland
Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis
Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s
EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Bulls Focused On 2017 High
*RES 4: $1.2371 Low Dec 11 2014 now resistance
*RES 3: $1.2254 High Dec 25 2014
*RES 2: $1.2092 2017 High Sept 8
*RES 1: $1.2033 High Sept 20
*PRICE: $1.2013 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: $1.1961 High Nov 27 now support
*SUP 2: $1.1910 High Dec 27 now support
*SUP 3: $1.1879 Hourly support Dec 27
*SUP 4: $1.1816 100-DMA
*COMMENTARY: The close above $1.1961 confirms initial focus on tests of 2017
highs and fresh 2017 highs to target $1.2254. Bulls take comfort in support
emerging on dips with bears needing a close below $1.1961 to ease bullish
pressure and below the 100-DMA to confirm pressure back on $1.1690. A close
below $1.1690 remains needed to shift focus to $1.1472-1.1552 where the 200-DMA
($1.1506) and Nov low are situated.
CABLE TECHS: Bulls Targeting 2017 High
*RES 4: $1.3656 2017 High Sept 20
*RES 3: $1.3595 High Sept 22
*RES 2: $1.3549 High Nov 30
*RES 1: $1.3524 Hourly resistance Jan 2
*PRICE: $1.3512 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: $1.3473 Hourly breakout level Dec 29
*SUP 2: $1.3429 High Dec 27 now support
*SUP 3: $1.3388 Hourly support Dec 27
*SUP 4: $1.3368 Low Dec 27
*COMMENTARY: Bulls now look for a close above $1.3549 to add support to their
case for a move targeting 2017 highs. Since closing above the 21-DMA the pair
has gained support with bears now needing a close below $1.3473 to ease bullish
pressure and below $1.3388 to target a correction back to $1.3286-1.3329 where
the 55-DMA ($1.3298) is located.
DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Bears Focusing On Y110.83-111.98
*RES 4: Y114.07 High Nov 9
*RES 3: Y113.74 High Dec 12
*RES 2: Y113.44 High Dec 22
*RES 1: Y113.13 Low Dec 26 now resistance
*PRICE: Y112.72 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: Y111.98 Low Dec 6
*SUP 2: Y111.66 200-DMA
*SUP 3: Y111.35 Low Nov 29
*SUP 4: Y110.83 Monthly Low Nov 27
*COMMENTARY: Bears take comfort in consolidation below 21 & 55-DMAs and the bull
channel base. Bulls need a close above Y113.13 to gain breathing room and hint
at a correction back to Y113.74-114.07. The closes below the 55-DMA (Y112.95)
confirmed a shift lower in focus with bears now targeting Y110.83-111.98 where
monthly lows, 100 & 200-DMAs are noted. Bears need a close below Y110.83 to
target 2017 lows (Y107.31).
EURO-YEN TECHS: Y133.88 Support Remains Key
*RES 4: Y139.02 Monthly High Aug 2015
*RES 3: Y136.40 High Oct 21 2015
*RES 2: Y135.84 Low Oct 21 2015 now resistance
*RES 1: Y135.78 Bollinger band top
*PRICE: Y135.39 @ 2000GMT
*SUP 1: Y135.07 Hourly resistance Dec 29 now support
*SUP 2: Y134.28 Hourly support Dec 27
*SUP 3: Y133.88 Hourly support Dec 20
*SUP 4: Y133.60 Hourly support Dec 19
*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2+ year highs continue, adding support for a potential move
targeting Y139.02-141.05. The Bolli top (Y135.78) & O/B studies are key concerns
for bulls. Layers of support followed the pair higher with bears needing a close
below Y133.88 to ease bullish pressure and shift focus back to Y132.03-132.83
where the 100-DMA and bull channel base are noted. Immediate bullish focus is on
Y135.84-136.40 while Y133.88 supports.
EURO-STERLING TECHS: 55-DMA & 100-DMA Key Levels
*RES 4: Gbp0.8981 High Nov 28
*RES 3: Gbp0.8924 100-DMA
*RES 2: Gbp0.8922 Low Nov 27 now resistance
*RES 1: Gbp0.8893 High Dec 28
*PRICE: Gbp0.8890 @ 1030GMT
*SUP 1: Gbp0.8861 55-DMA
*SUP 2: Gbp0.8826 Low Dec 20
*SUP 3: Gbp0.8780 Hourly support Dec 15
*SUP 4: Gbp0.8759 Lows Dec 14 & 15
*COMMENTARY: Despite trading above the 55-DMA the pair remains capped ahead of
the 100-DMA. Bulls still need a close above the 100-DMA to add support to their
case and confirm initial focus on Gbp0.8981-0.9048. O/B daily studies looking to
correct remain the key concern for bulls. Layers of support remain with bears
needing a close below the 55-DMA to ease pressure on resistance layers and below
Gbp0.8826 to shift initial focus back to Gbp0.8690-0.8759.
US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Remains Heavy
*RES 4: 93.122 - Hourly resistance Dec 27
*RES 3: 92.956 - Low Dec 27 now resistance
*RES 2: 92.788 - Hourly resistance Dec 28
*RES 1: 92.518 - Hourly support Dec 29 now resistance
*PRICE: 92.182 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: 92.080 - Low Dec 29
*SUP 2: 91.781 - Low Sept 22
*SUP 3: 91.526 - Low Oct 19
*SUP 4: 91.011 - 2017 Low Sept 8
*COMMENTARY: The 21-DMA capping recently has resulted in a break of the bull
channel base (93.173) with the close below 92.496 confirming a return in focus
to tests of 2017 lows. Modestly O/S daily studies are less than ideal for bears.
Bulls continue to look for a close above the 21-DMA to gain breathing room and
above the 55-DMA to shift initial focus to 94.219 and overall focus to
95.167-464.
US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Focus Now On 2.344-404
*RES 4: 2.504 - High Dec 21
*RES 3: 2.479 - High Dec 27
*RES 2: 2.459 - Low Dec 26 now resistance
*RES 1: 2.441 - High Dec 28
*PRICE: 2.405 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: 2.404 - 21-DMA
*SUP 2: 2.376 - 55-DMA
*SUP 3: 2.344 - Low Dec 14
*SUP 4: 2.297 - 200-DMA
*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of the weekly bear channel top (2.534) combined
with waning momentum provided the impetus for a correction that eased bullish
pressure. Focus returned to 2.344-404 where key DMAs and the bull channel base
are noted. Bears now need a close below 2.344 to confirm breaks and initially
pressure the 200-DMA. Bulls need a close above 2.441 to gain breathing room and
above 2.479 to shift focus higher.
NYMEX WTI TECHS: (G18) Flirting with 200-WMA
*RES 4: $63.28 - Daily Bull channel top (off Oct low)
*RES 3: $62.23 - Weekly Bollinger band top
*RES 2: $61.85 - High May 13 2015
*RES 1: $60.84 - Daily Bull channel top (off June low)
*PRICE: $60.62 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $59.82 - Low Dec 29
*SUP 2: $59.33 - Low Dec 27
*SUP 3: $58.99 - Monthly High Nov 24 now support
*SUP 4: $58.18 - Hourly support Dec 22
*COMMENTARY: The recovery from the dip back towards $55.88 resulted in a close
above $58.99 Tuesday with the contract flirting with the 200-WMA ($60.05). Bulls
look for a close above the bull channel top off June lows to initially target
$61.85-63.28 where monthly highs and the bull channel top off Oct lows are
noted. Bears now look for a close below $59.82 to ease bullish pressure and
below the 21-DMA to pressure the 55-DMA ($56.24).
SPOT GOLD TECHS: Above $1320.0 Confirms Focus on 2017 High
*RES 4: $1367.3 - Monthly High Aug 2 2016
*RES 3: $1357.5 - 2017 High Sept 8
*RES 2: $1334.8 - High Sept 13
*RES 1: $1320.0 - High Sept 18
*PRICE: $1306.7 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: $1293.5 - Low Dec 29
*SUP 2: $1281.5 - Low Dec 27
*SUP 3: $1275.5 - 55-DMA
*SUP 4: $1270.5 - 200-DMA
*COMMENTARY: The recovery from Dec lows has resulted in closes above the 55-DMA
and bear channel top with immediate focus now on $1320.0 following the break of
$1289.5. O/B daily studies and the Bollinger top ($1308.7) are concerns for
bulls. Bears need a close below the 100-DMA to ease immediate bullish pressure
and below the 21-DMA ($1269.2) to hint at a move back to Dec lows.
--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.