MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

4 January 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Hesitating Ahead Of 2017 High

*RES 4: $1.2360 Low Dec 10 2014 now resistance

*RES 3: $1.2254 High Dec 25 2014

*RES 2: $1.2092 2017 High Sept 8

*RES 1: $1.2035 Hourly resistance Jan 3

*PRICE: $1.2018 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1981 Hourly support Dec 29 

*SUP 2: $1.1961 High Nov 27 now support 

*SUP 3: $1.1910 High Dec 27 now support 

*SUP 4: $1.1879 Hourly support Dec 27

*COMMENTARY: Gains continued to start the new year although hesitation ahead of

2017 highs is less than ideal given daily studies looking to correct from O/B

and the Bollinger top ($1.2063). Bulls continue to look for a close above the

current 2017 high to initially target $1.2254. Layers of support are

accumulating but $1.1961 remains key. Bears need a close below $1.1961 to ease

bullish pressure and below the 100-DMA to confirm pressure back on $1.1690.

     CABLE TECHS: $1.3491 Support Key Today

*RES 4: $1.3612 2018 High Jan 3 

*RES 3: $1.3581 Hourly support Jan 3a now resistance 

*RES 2: $1.3553 Hourly support Jan 3 now resistance 

*RES 1: $1.3533 Hourly resistance Jan 3

*PRICE: $1.3520 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3491 Low Jan 1 

*SUP 2: $1.3538 Hourly support Jan 2 

*SUP 3: $1.3456 High Dec 28 now support 

*SUP 4: $1.3418 21-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The correction lower from fresh 4mth highs is less than ideal for

bulls who are currently focused on 2017 highs. The Bollinger top ($1.3563)

remains a concern for bulls and limits follow through. Bears now look for a

close below $1.3491 to ease bullish pressure and shift immediate pressure to the

21-DMA. Layers of resistance are accumulating and weighing with bulls needing a

close above $1.3581 to ease pressure on initial support.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Y113.13 Resistance Key Today

*RES 4: Y114.07 High Nov 9 

*RES 3: Y113.74 High Dec 12 

*RES 2: Y113.44 High Dec 22 

*RES 1: Y113.13 Low Dec 26 now resistance

*PRICE: Y112.62 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Y111.98 Low Dec 6 

*SUP 2: Y111.67 200-DMA 

*SUP 3: Y111.35 Low Nov 29 

*SUP 4: Y110.83 Monthly Low Nov 27

*COMMENTARY: Despite pressuring the Y111.98-09 region where the 100-DMA is

located bears have failed to produce a close below. Bears look for a close below

the 200-DMA to add weight to the case for a test of the key Y110.83 support.

Bulls take comfort in the recovery from the week's low but continue to look for

a close above Y113.13 to gain breathing room and hint at a correction back to

Y113.74-114.07.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Below Y134.78 To Ease Bullish Pressure

*RES 4: Y139.02 Monthly High Aug 2015

*RES 3: Y136.40 High Oct 21 2015

*RES 2: Y136.03 Bollinger band top

*RES 1: Y135.84 Low Oct 21 2015 now resistance

*PRICE: Y135.37 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Y134.78 Low Jan 3 

*SUP 2: Y134.28 Hourly support Dec 27 

*SUP 3: Y133.88 Hourly support Dec 20 

*SUP 4: Y133.60 Hourly support Dec 19

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2+ year highs added support for a potential move targeting

Y139.02-141.05. The Bolli top & O/B studies are key concerns for bulls. Layers

of support followed the pair higher with bears now needing a close below Y134.78

to ease bullish pressure and below Y133.88 to shift focus back to Y132.03-132.94

where the 100-DMA and bull channel base are noted. Immediate bullish focus

remains on Y135.84-136.40 while Y133.88 supports.

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: 100-DMA Confirms Significance

*RES 4: Gbp0.9048 Low Aug 15 now resistance 

*RES 3: Gbp0.8981 High Nov 28 

*RES 2: Gbp0.8919 100-DMA 

*RES 1: Gbp0.8901 High Jan 3

*PRICE: Gbp0.8861 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.8844 21-DMA 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.8826 Low Dec 20 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.8780 Hourly support Dec 15 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.8759 Lows Dec 14 & 15

*COMMENTARY: The 100-DMA confirmed significance with the pair capped and

rejected aggressively ahead of this level, resulting in a dip back to the

21-DMA. Bears now need a close below the 21-DMA to confirm an easing of bullish

pressure and below Gbp0.8826 to shift initial focus back to Gbp0.8690-0.8759.

Correcting O/B studies add weight to the bearish case. Bulls need a close above

the 100-DMA to confirm initial focus on Gbp0.8981-0.9048.

     AUSSIE TECHS: Immediate Bullish Focus On $7906

*RES 4: $0.8036 - High Sept 21

*RES 3: $0.7986 - High Sept 22

*RES 2: $0.7906 - Low Sept 22 now resistance

*RES 1: $0.7857 - 200-WMA

*PRICE: $0.7833 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7802 - Low Jan 3 

*SUP 2: $0.7760 - Hourly support Dec 27 

*SUP 3: $0.7729 - Highs Dec 25 & 26 now support 

*SUP 4: $0.7698 - 200-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Bulls took comfort in the recovery from Dec lows closing above the

100-DMA ($0.7775) and shifting overall focus to 2017 highs. Bulls look for a

close above $0.7906 to add support to their case. Key supports remain with bears

needing a close below $0.7760 to gain breathing room. Bears still need a close

below the 200-DMA to shift initial focus to $0.7623 and hint at a move back to

$0.7495-00 with below $0.7580 to confirm.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: O/S Daily Studies A Concern

*RES 4: 92.956 - Low Dec 27 now resistance 

*RES 3: 92.788 - Hourly resistance Dec 28 

*RES 2: 92.518 - Hourly support Dec 29 now resistance 

*RES 1: 92.261 - High Jan 3

*PRICE: 92.179 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 91.751 - Low Jan 2

*SUP 2: 91.526 - Low Oct 19 

*SUP 3: 91.011 - 2017 Low Sept 8 

*SUP 4: 90.325 - High Dec 30 2014 now support

*COMMENTARY: The 21-DMA capping recently has resulted in a break of the bull

channel base (93.173) with the close below 92.496 confirming a return in focus

to tests of 2017 lows. O/S daily studies are less than ideal for bears. Bulls

now look for a close above 92.518 to ease immediate bearish pressure and above

the 55-DMA (93.660) to shift initial focus to 94.219 and overall focus to

95.167-464.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Bears Need Close Below 55-DMA

*RES 4: 2.544 - High Mar 17 

*RES 3: 2.530 - Weekly Bear channel top (Off 2014 high) 

*RES 2: 2.504 - High Dec 21 

*RES 1: 2.481 - High Jan 2

*PRICE: 2.463 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 2.411 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 2: 2.381 - 55-DMA 

*SUP 3: 2.344 - Low Dec 14 

*SUP 4: 2.297 - 200-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in support ahead of the 21-DMA providing a

bounce to start the new year. Bulls now look for a close above 2.504 to confirm

focus on tests of 2016 & 2017 highs 2.629-641. Layers of support remain with

bears now needing a close below the 55-DMA to hint at a test of the 200-DMA with

below 2.344 to confirm. The Bollinger top (2.514) remains the key concern for

bulls.

SPOT GOLD TECHS: Bears Need Close Below $1302.5

*RES 4: $1367.3 - Monthly High Aug 2 2016 

*RES 3: $1357.5 - 2017 High Sept 8 

*RES 2: $1334.8 - High Sept 13 

*RES 1: $1321.3 - Hourly resistance Jan 3

*PRICE: $1307.6 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1302.5 - Low Jan 2 

*SUP 2: $1293.5 - Low Dec 29 

*SUP 3: $1287.9 - 100-DMA 

*SUP 4: $1281.5 - Low Dec 27

*COMMENTARY: The lack of follow through on the break of $1320.0 is a concern for

bulls when combined with daily studies looking to correct from O/B and daily

momentum divergence. Bears look for a close below $1302.5 to ease bullish

pressure and below the 100-DMA to hint at a deeper sell-off with below the

55-DMA ($1276.9) confirming. Bulls now need a close above $1321.3 to confirm

focus on 2017 highs.

NYMEX WTI TECHS: (G18) Bulls Focused On $63.56-65.17 

*RES 4: $65.17 - Low Dec 5 2014 now resistance 

*RES 3: $63.56 - Daily Bull channel top (off Oct low) 

*RES 2: $62.58 - 2015 High May 6 2015 

*RES 1: $62.50 - Weekly Bollinger band top

*PRICE: $61.88 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $61.23 - Hourly support Jan 3 

*SUP 2: $60.77 - Hourly support Jan 3a 

*SUP 3: $59.82 - Low Dec 29 

*SUP 4: $59.33 - Low Dec 27

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort as gains above the 200-WMA $60.06 continue. O/B

studies looking to correct remain the key concern for bulls. In saying that,

bears now need a close below $60.77 to ease bullish pressure and below $59.82 to

shift immediate focus back to the bull channel base ($58.18) & 21-DMA ($58.46).

Bulls now focus on the bull channel top and the $65.17 resistance above.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]