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11 January 2018
By Kyle Shortland
     
Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis
Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s
EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Bulls Now Need Close Above $1.2018
*RES 4: $1.2092 2017 High Sept 8
*RES 3: $1.2052 High Jan 8
*RES 2: $1.2018 High Jan 10
*RES 1: $1.1973 Hourly support Jan 10 now resistance
*PRICE: $1.1944 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: $1.1918 21-DMA 
*SUP 2: $1.1849 Daily Bull channel base (off Nov low) 
*SUP 3: $1.1831 100-DMA 
*SUP 4: $1.1814 55-DMA
*COMMENTARY: Continued hesitation ahead of 2017 highs has taken its toll with
the sell-off Monday leaving the pair looking heavy and seeing focus on support
layers $1.1814-1.1918 where key DMAs and the bull channel base are situated.
Layers of resistance accumulating and daily studies correcting from O/B adds
weight to the bearish case. Bulls now need a close above $1.2018 to return focus
to 2017 highs.
     CABLE TECHS: Bears Need Close Below 21-DMA
*RES 4: $1.3612 2018 High Jan 3 
*RES 3: $1.3585 High Jan 8 
*RES 2: $1.3562 High Jan 10 
*RES 1: $1.3521 Hourly resistance Jan 10
*PRICE: $1.3488 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: $1.3454 21-DMA 
*SUP 2: $1.3344 55-DMA 
*SUP 3: $1.3300 Low Dec 15 
*SUP 4: $1.3288 100-DMA
*COMMENTARY: Failure to trouble $1.3612 so far this week has left the pair
looking a little heavy and focus back on the 21-DMA. Bears look for a close
below the 21-DMA to shift focus to $1.3288-1.3344 where 55 & 100-DMAs and the
bull channel base are situated. Correcting O/B studies adds weight to the
bearish case. Bulls now need a close above $1.3585 to gain breathing room and
above 2017 highs to target $1.3828.
     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above Y111.98
*RES 4: Y112.83 55-DMA 
*RES 3: Y112.42 Hourly resistance Jan 10 
*RES 2: Y112.24 100-DMA 
*RES 1: Y111.98 Low Dec 6 now resistance
*PRICE: Y111.78 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: Y111.26 Low Jan 10 
*SUP 2: Y110.83 Monthly Low Nov 27 
*SUP 3: Y109.77 Daily Bear channel base 
*SUP 4: Y109.54 Low Sept 15
*COMMENTARY: Time spent above the 55-DMA was brief with the break below Y112.86
leaving the pair looking heavy and bears now focused on Y110.83 Nov lows. Bears
now need a close below Y110.83 to shift initial focus to the bear channel base
and overall focus to tests of 2017 lows. Bulls now need a close above Y111.98 to
ease immediate bearish pressure and above the 100-DMA to shift focus back to
Y112.83-113.44 where the 55-DMA and bear channel top are noted.
     EURO-YEN TECHS: Flirting With Key Supports
*RES 4: Y135.48 Hourly resistance Jan 8
*RES 3: Y135.11 Low Jan 8 now resistance
*RES 2: Y134.57 Hourly resistance Jan
*RES 1: Y133.88 Hourly support Dec 20 now resistance
*PRICE: Y133.53 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: Y132.78 21-WMA 
*SUP 2: Y132.03 Monthly Low Dec 15 
*SUP 3: Y131.71 Low Nov 28 
*SUP 4: Y131.15 Monthly Low Nov 20
*COMMENTARY: The lack of topside follow through took its toll with a sell-off
that leaves the pair looking a little heavy and flirting with the 55-DMA
(Y133.31) & bull channel base (Y133.21). Bears now look for a close below the
21-WMA to confirm focus on Y130.59-132.03 where monthly lows are noted. Bulls
now need a close above Y133.88 to gain breathing room and above Y135.11 to shift
focus back to 2018 highs.
     EURO-STERLING TECHS: Above Gbp0.8924 To Shift Focus Higher
*RES 4: Gbp0.8924 High Jan 4 
*RES 3: Gbp0.8902 100-DMA 
*RES 2: Gbp0.8887 Hourly resistance Jan 5 
*RES 1: Gbp0.8873 High Jan 10
*PRICE: Gbp0.8854 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: Gbp0.8838 Hourly support Jan 10 
*SUP 2: Gbp0.8790 Low Dec 18 
*SUP 3: Gbp0.8780 Hourly support Dec 15 
*SUP 4: Gbp0.8759 Lows Dec 14 & 15
*COMMENTARY: The 100-DMA confirmed significance with the pair capped and
rejected aggressively ahead of this level. Failure to gain traction below the
55-DMA (Gbp0.8852) provides bulls hope with Gbp0.8873-0.8924 now key. Bulls need
a close above this region to confirm a break of the 100-DMA and initially target
Gbp0.8981-0.9048. Initial support is now noted at Gbp0.8838 with bears needing a
close below to retain focus on Gbp0.8690.
     AUSSIE TECHS: Above $0.7906 Targets 2017 High
*RES 4: $0.8102 - High Sept 20
*RES 3: $0.8036 - High Sept 21
*RES 2: $0.7986 - High Sept 22
*RES 1: $0.7906 - Low Sept 22 now resistance
*PRICE: $0.7871 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: $0.7834 - Hourly support Jan 11 
*SUP 2: $0.7802 - Low Jan 3 
*SUP 3: $0.7760 - Hourly support Dec 27 
*SUP 4: $0.7729 - Highs Dec 25 & 26 now support
*COMMENTARY: O/B daily studies looking to correct remain a key concern for bulls
who are initially focused on $0.7906 with overall focus on 2017 highs. Bulls
take comfort in the break of $0.7874 and now need a close above $0.7906 to
confirm focus on 2017 highs. Bears now need a close below $0.7802 to ease
immediate bullish pressure and below the 21-DMA ($0.7766) to hint at a move back
to $0.7500 and below $0.7625 to confirm.
     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Below 91.751 Targets 2017 Low
*RES 4: 93.531 - 55-DMA 
*RES 3: 92.956 - Low Dec 27 now resistance 
*RES 2: 92.840 - 21-DMA 
*RES 1: 92.640 - High Jan 9
*PRICE: 92.387 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: 92.214 - Hourly support Jan 10 
*SUP 2: 91.922 - Low Jan 10 
*SUP 3: 91.751 - Low Jan 2
*SUP 4: 91.526 - Low Oct 19
*COMMENTARY: Correcting O/S daily studies appear to be impacting with the index
bouncing from ahead of last week's lows and closes that sees pressure back on
92.840-93.531 where key DMAs and the bear channel top are situated. Bulls need a
close above the 55-DMA to shift initial focus to 94.219 and overall focus to
95.167-464. Bears now need a close below 92.214 to gain breathing room and below
91.751 to return pressure to 2017 lows.
     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Topside Follow Through Lacking
*RES 4: 2.692 - Monthly High July 3 2014 
*RES 3: 2.641 - 2016 High Dec 15 
*RES 2: 2.629 - 2017 High Mar 13 
*RES 1: 2.597 - 2018 High Jan 10
*PRICE: 2.540 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: 2.504 - High Dec 21 now support 
*SUP 2: 2.462 - Low Jan 8 
*SUP 3: 2.451 - 21-DMA 
*SUP 4: 2.429 - Daily Bull channel base
*COMMENTARY: The lack of topside follow through on fresh 10mth highs is a
concern for bulls who are currently focused on 2.629-692 where yearly and
monthly highs are situated. Daily studies have room to move before O/B becomes
an issue. Bears continue to look for a close below 2.504 to gain breathing room
and hint at a correction back to 2.399-2.451 where the 21 & 55-DMAs and bull
channel base off Sept lows are noted.
     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (G18) Bulls Focused On $64.25-65.17 
*RES 4: $73.25 - Low Nov 14 2014 now resistance 
*RES 3: $69.54 - High Dec 1 2014 
*RES 2: $65.17 - Low Dec 5 2014 now resistance 
*RES 1: $64.25 - Daily Bull channel top (off Oct low)
*PRICE: $63.46 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $63.09 - Hourly resistance Jan 9 now support 
*SUP 2: $62.56 - Hourly resistance Jan 9a now support 
*SUP 3: $61.80 - Low Jan 9 
*SUP 4: $61.34 - Low Jan 8
*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort as gains above the 200-WMA $59.95 continue as do
fresh 3+yr highs with bulls focused on $64.25-65.17 where the bull channel top
remains. O/B studies looking to correct remain the key concern for bulls. Bears
need a close below $62.56 to ease bullish pressure and below $61.09 to shift
focus back to $58.60-59.93 where the bull channel base and 21-DMA are situated.
     SPOT GOLD TECHS: Topside Hesitation A Concern
*RES 4: $1367.3 - Monthly High Aug 2 2016 
*RES 3: $1357.5 - 2017 High Sept 8 
*RES 2: $1334.8 - High Sept 13 
*RES 1: $1326.6 - 2018 High Jan 10
*PRICE: $1318.9 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: $1305.9 - Low Jan 4 
*SUP 2: $1302.5 - Low Jan 2 
*SUP 3: $1293.5 - Low Dec 29 
*SUP 4: $1289.6 - 100-DMA
*COMMENTARY: Topside hesitation is less than ideal when combined with daily
studies looking to correct from O/B. Bears continue to look for a close below
$1302.5 to shift focus back to $1273.2-1289.6 where key DMAs are noted. While
$1302.5 supports bulls maintain focus on tests of $1357.5-1374.9 where 2016 &
2017 highs are situated but need a close above $1326.6 to add support to their
case.
--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]