MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

17 January 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Bulls Focused On LT Bear Channel Top

*RES 4: $1.2694 LT Weekly Bear Channel top

*RES 3: $1.2599 Monthly High Nov 19 2014

*RES 2: $1.2569 Monthly High Dec 16 2014

*RES 1: $1.2360 Low Dec 10 2014 now resistance

*PRICE: $1.2267 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2247 Hourly resistance Jan 16 now support 

*SUP 2: $1.2186 Low Jan 15 

*SUP 3: $1.2156 Hourly resistance Jan 12 now support 

*SUP 4: $1.2111 Hourly support Jan 12

*COMMENTARY: The 21-DMA ($1.2008) provided the base last week for a rally to

3+yr highs with bulls now focused on the LT weekly bear channel top off mid 2008

highs. O/B studies and Bollinger top are key concerns for bulls. Layers of

support are accumulating with bears needing a close below $1.2186 to ease

bullish pressure and below $1.2075 to shift focus back to $1.1840-1.2008 where

key DMAs are noted.

     CABLE TECHS: Topside Follow Through Lacking Today

*RES 4: $1.4612 Low June 21 2016 now resistance 

*RES 3: $1.4349 Low June 20 2016 now resistance 

*RES 2: $1.4006 Low June 16 2016 now resistance 

*RES 1: $1.3836 2018 High Jan 17

*PRICE: $1.3785 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3739 Low Jan 16 

*SUP 2: $1.3700 Hourly resistance Jan 12 now support 

*SUP 3: $1.3643 Hourly resistance Jan 12a now support 

*SUP 4: $1.3585 High Jan 8 now support

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 & 18mth highs continue but the lack of topside follow

through so far in Asia is less than ideal. The $1.3643-00 support region is key

today. Bears still need a close below $1.3700 to ease bullish pressure and below

$1.3643 to shift focus back to $1.3456-1.3531 where the bull channel base and

21-DMA are situated. While $1.3700 supports bulls now focus on $1.4006-1.4349

where the 200-WMA ($1.4409) is located.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above Y111.19

*RES 4: Y111.98 Low Dec 6 now resistance 

*RES 3: Y111.71 200-DMA 

*RES 2: Y111.19 High Jan 15 

*RES 1: Y110.97 High Jan 16

*PRICE: Y110.62 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Y110.18 Hourly support Jan 17 

*SUP 2: Y109.68 Daily Bear channel base 

*SUP 3: Y109.54 Low Sept 15 

*SUP 4: Y107.31 2017 Low Sept 8

*COMMENTARY: The correction lower that began with failures ahead of Y113.44 sees

bears initially focused on Y109.54-68 where the bear channel base is situated

with overall focus on tests of 2017 lows. Layers of resistance are accumulating

and weighing. Bulls still need a close above Y111.19 to gain breathing room and

above the 100-DMA to shift focus back to Y112.60-113.44 where the 55-DMA and

bear channel top are noted.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Bears Need Close Below Y134.81

*RES 4: Y139.02 Monthly High Aug 2015

*RES 3: Y136.62 2018 High Jan 5

*RES 2: Y136.32 High Jan 8, Bollinger band top

*RES 1: Y136.09 High Jan 16

*PRICE: Y135.70 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Y134.93 21-DMA 

*SUP 2: Y134.81 Hourly support Jan 12 

*SUP 3: Y134.39 Alternating hourly support/resistance 

*SUP 4: Y133.60 Hourly support Jan 11

*COMMENTARY: The sell-off found support around the 21-WMA and ahead of the

100-DMA (Y132.99) with the recovery seeing initial focus on 2018 highs. While

the 100-DMA (Y132.99) supports overall bullish focus remains on 139.02-141.05

where monthly highs are noted. Bears still need a close back below Y134.81 to

ease bullish pressure and shift focus back to the 21-WMA and 100-DMA. Below the

100-DMA shifts focus to Y130.59-132.03.

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: 55-DMA & Gbp0.8928 Levels Key

*RES 4: Gbp0.9013 Monthly High Nov 15 

*RES 3: Gbp0.8981 High Nov 28 

*RES 2: Gbp0.8928 High Jan 12 

*RES 1: Gbp0.8917 Bollinger band top

*PRICE: Gbp0.8894 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.8859 55-DMA 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.8838 Hourly support Jan 10 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.8790 Low Dec 18 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.8780 Hourly support Dec 15

*COMMENTARY: Pops above the 100-DMA (Gbp0.8889) have lacked follow through with

bulls needing a close above Gbp0.8928 to confirm a break and shift initial focus

to Gbp0.8981-0.9048. Daily studies are well placed for gains although the

Bollinger band top recently limited follow through. Bears need a close below the

55-DMA to ease pressure on resistance layers and below Gbp0.8790 to confirm

focus on tests of Gbp0.8690 Dec lows.

     AUSSIE TECHS: Below $0.7916 To Ease Bullish Pressure

*RES 4: $0.8162 - Monthly high May 14 2015

*RES 3: $0.8124 - 2017 High Sept 8

*RES 2: $0.8102 - High Sept 20

*RES 1: $0.8036 - High Sept 21

*PRICE: $0.7965 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7935 - Low Jan 16 

*SUP 2: $0.7916 - High Jan 12 

*SUP 3: $0.7882 - Hourly support Jan 12 

*SUP 4: $0.7846 - Low Jan 12

*COMMENTARY: Bullish focus shifted to tests of 2017 highs following gains last

week and support emerging ahead of 21 ($0.7823) & 100 ($0.7773) DMAs. Bears now

need a close below $0.7916 to ease immediate bullish pressure and below the

200-DMA ($0.7714) to hint at a move back to $0.7500 with below $0.7625 to

confirm. Initial focus shifts to $0.8036 following the break of $0.7986. O/B

studies and the Bollinger top ($0.7997) remain concerns for bulls.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Bears Focused On 88.125

*RES 4: 91.689 - Hourly support Jan 12a now resistance 

*RES 3: 91.523 - Hourly resistance Jan 12 

*RES 2: 91.011 - Low Sept 8 now resistance 

*RES 1: 90.826 - High Jan 16

*PRICE: 90.457 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 90.113 - 2018 Low Jan 17

*SUP 2: 89.776 - Low Dec 26 2014

*SUP 3: 88.921 - Low Dec 18 2014

*SUP 4: 88.125 - Monthly Low Dec 16 2014

*COMMENTARY: The index remains heavy with 3+ year lows seeing bears focused on

the 88.125 Dec 2014 monthly low. O/S daily studies and Bollinger band base

(90.365) are concerns for bears. Layers of resistance accumulating adds weight

to the bearish case with bulls needing a close above 91.011 to ease bearish

pressure and above 91.879 to hint at a correction back to 92.254-93.232 where

key DMAs are clustered.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 21-DMA-2.522 Support Key

*RES 4: 2.641 - 2016 High Dec 15 

*RES 3: 2.629 - 2017 High Mar 13 

*RES 2: 2.597 - 2018 High Jan 10 

*RES 1: 2.566 - Hourly resistance Jan 12

*PRICE: 2.550 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 2.522 - Low Jan 16 

*SUP 2: 2.504 - High Dec 21 now support 

*SUP 3: 2.475 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 4: 2.462 - Low Jan 8

*COMMENTARY: Not only was topside follow though lacking last week but a double

daily top has been left in place 2.594-597 with bearish closes leaving the yield

looking a little heavy. Bears look for a close below 2.522 to ease bullish

pressure and below the 21-DMA now to hint at a correction back to 2.403-2.444

where the 55-DMA and bull channel base off Sept lows are noted. Bulls now need a

close above 2.566 to gain breathing room.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (H18) 2018 High Lacking Follow Through 

*RES 4: $73.25 - Low Nov 14 2014 now resistance 

*RES 3: $69.54 - High Dec 1 2014 

*RES 2: $65.17 - Low Dec 5 2014 now resistance, Bollinger top 

*RES 1: $64.83 - 2018 High Jan 16

*PRICE: $63.56 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $63.34 - Low Jan 16 

*SUP 2: $62.95 - Low Jan 10 

*SUP 3: $62.53 - Hourly resistance Jan 8 now support 

*SUP 4: $62.05 - High Jan 4 now support

*COMMENTARY: The lack of topside follow through on the most recent 2018 high is

a concern for bulls when combined with daily studies overdue a correction lower

and the Bollinger band top ($65.30) capping. Bears continue to look for a close

below $62.95 to ease bullish pressure and below the 21-DMA ($60.75) to shift

initial focus back to $58.14-82 where the 55-DMA is noted. Above $65.17 targets

$69.54-73.25.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: $1326.6 Support Now Key

*RES 4: $1374.9 - 2016 High July 6 2016 

*RES 3: $1367.3 - Monthly High Aug 2 2016 

*RES 2: $1357.5 - 2017 High Sept 8 

*RES 1: $1344.5 - 2018 High Jan 15

*PRICE: $1338.3 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1331.7 - Low Jan 16 

*SUP 2: $1326.6 - High Jan 10 now support 

*SUP 3: $1321.2 - Hourly support Jan 12 

*SUP 4: $1315.4 - Low Jan 11

*COMMENTARY: Recent fresh 2018 and 4mth highs have lacked a little follow

through so far but bulls take comfort in the bounce from ahead of the Jan 10

high which retains focus on 2017 and then 2016 highs. O/B studies and the

Bollinger band top ($1357.0) remain key concerns for bulls. Bears now look for a

close below $1326.6 to ease bullish pressure and hint at a correction back to

$1301.7-1305.9 where the 21-DMA is noted.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]