MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

     Click below for today's MNI FX Technical Analysis Report -

https://tinyurl.com/y7lf3ytb

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Continues To Climb, $1.2476-$1.2524 Next Target Area

*RES 4: $1.2598 61.8% Fibo of $1.3994-$1.0340

*RES 3: $1.2571 Dec 15 2014 high

*RES 2: $1.2524 2% volatility band

*RES 1: $1.2476 Underside broken 2010/2012 support line

*PRICE: $1.2429 @0526GMT 

*SUP 1: $1.2385 Intraday low

*SUP 2: $1.2356 Hourly high Jan 24, now support

*SUP 3: $1.2296 Jan 19 high, now support

*SUP 4: $1.2267 Jan 22 high, now support

*COMMENTARY* Broke above the 3 month bull channel top at $1.2362 on Wednesday, a

high of $1.2440, as we also exceed the upper 1% volatility band at $1.2401 by

time today. This now sees the underside of the former 2010-2012 support line

come into view at $1.2476 next. Any higher and the 2% band is at $1.2524 as we

make our way back towards the Dec 15 2014 high at $1.2571 and the 61.8% Fibo

retrace at $1.2598. Support $1.2385, loss would open up near term correction.

CABLE TECHS: Heads Toward Fibo Retrace Level At $1.4368

*RES 4: $1.4515 50% Fibo of $1.7192-$1.1838

*RES 3: $1.4368 61.8% Fibo of $1.5932-$1.1838

*RES 2: $1.4333 May 16 2016 low, now resistance

*RES 1: $1.4305 Intraday high

*PRICE: $1.4289 @0545GMT

*SUP 1: $1.4242 Initial high Jan 24, now support

*SUP 2: $1.4215 Intraday low

*SUP 3: $1.4187 Hourly base Jan 24

*SUP 4: $1.4119 Hourly high Jan 24, now support

*COMMENTARY* For the first time in this rise we have overstepped the upper 2%

volatility band, at $1.4223 by time today. Even in extremes this is never a long

lasting scenario, so always cautious when it happens. That said, with a high of

$1.4305 so far, there is only the May 2016 base at $1.4333 to prevent a look at

the next Fibo retrace level at $1.4368. In the meantime, support from $1.4242

and then the day's low at $1.4215, not far off that $1.4223 level.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS:  Y108.60-Y108.65 Support After Y109.04 Gives Way

*RES 4: Y110.49 Jan 19 low, now resistance

*RES 3: Y110.19 Jan 17 low, now resistance

*RES 2: Y109.81 Hourly base Jan 24, now resistance

*RES 1: Y109.48 Intraday high

*PRICE: Y108.94 @0600GMT

*SUP 1: Y108.60/65 Aug 18 low, hourly support

*SUP 2: Y108.22/27 Sep 11, Aug 29 lows, 2% vol band

*SUP 3: Y107.44 1.618x Y114.74-Y110.84 from Y113.75

*SUP 4: Y107.32 Sep 8 low

*COMMENTARY* Most latterly breaking below the Y109.07-Y109.04 support area,

which leaves the Y108.65-Y108.60 area to take the strain next, as we head

towards the lower 2% volatility band and next batch of lows between

Y108.27-Y108.22. Meanwhile, resistance from the day's Y109.48 high is the

immediate bar to any near term recovery hopes and some better correction of

losses from the week's earlier Y111.23 high.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Range Trading Continues 

*RES 4: Y136.64 Jan 5 high

*RES 3: Y136.31 Jan 18 high

*RES 2: Y136.00 Hourly pivot

*RES 1: Y135.72 Intraday high, hourly high Jan 23

*PRICE: Y135.52 @0613GMT

*SUP 1: Y134.92/98 Jan 24, Jan 16 lows

*SUP 2: Y134.58 Hourly low Jan 12

*SUP 3: Y134.28/35 1% volatility band, Jan 11 high

*SUP 4: Y133.58 5 month rising support line

*COMMENTARY* Still basically range trading above Y134.98-Y134.92 support. While

held here, there is scope to return higher, the day's Y135.72 high and the still

pivotal Y136.00 area, then the likely bar to a move back towards the range highs

at Y136.31-Y136.64. The 5 month rising support line and upper 1% volatility band

at the higher Y137.05 region today. Loss of Y134.92 would caution and open up

corrective potential.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: December Low Of $1.8689 Back Under Pressure

*RES 4: Stg0.8802 Jan 18 low, now resistance

*RES 3: Stg0.8796 Jan 23 high

*RES 2: Stg0.8762 Jan 22 low, now resistance

*RES 1: Stg0.8730/35 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: Stg0.8701 @0620GMT

*SUP 1: Stg0.8689 Dec 8 low

*SUP 2: Stg0.8628 2% volatility band

*SUP 3: Stg0.8547 76.4% Fibo of Stg0.8313-Stg0.9306

*SUP 4: Stg0.8543 1.618 swing of Stg0.8689-Stg0.8925

*COMMENTARY* The fallout from this month's failure at Stg0.8925 continues. Most

latterly the loss of Stg0.8744-Stg0.8737 support has again switched the focus

back on The Dec 8 low at Stg0.8689. While held here, then look to hourly

resistance from between Stg0.8730-35 to provide initial clues. Require back

through here before the chance of any further corrective gains. Below Stg0.8689

and not much ahead of the lower 2% volatility band.

     AUSSIE TECHS: Heads Toward Next $0.8126-$0.8167 Target Zone

*RES 4: $0.8297 Jan 2015 high

*RES 3: $0.8165/67 May 2015 high, 50% of $0.9507-$0.6827

*RES 2: $0.8160 2% volatility band

*RES 1: $0.8126 Sep 8 high

*PRICE: $0.8118 @0630GMT 

*SUP 1: $0.8060/70 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $0.8039/43 Jan 19 high, intraday low

*SUP 3: $0.7995 Jan 24 low

*SUP 4: $0.7957/59 Jan 23 low, 7 week rising support line

*COMMENTARY* Having held key trend support last week, has continued to progress

this week. The latest move through $0.8090 now allows a run at the Sep 8 high at

$0.8126. Any higher than this and look to the $0.8160-$0.8167 region to provide

next resistance. An area of a high from May 2015 as well as a 50% Fibo retrace

and the upper 2% volatility band. Support $0.8060-$0.8039.

     DOLLAR-CANADA: TECHS: Pressure Back On Lower 1% Volatility Band

*RES 4: $1.2435 Jan 22 low, now resistance

*RES 3: $1.2400 Jan 18-19 lows, now resistance

*RES 2: $1.2364/66 Jan 17 low, hourly high Jan 24

*RES 1: $1.2340/55 Hourly resistance, Jan 5 low

*PRICE: $1.2299 @0640GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2294 1% volatility band

*SUP 2: $1.2264 76.4% Fibo of $1.2061-$1.2921

*SUP 3: $1.2209 1.618 swing of $1.2355-$1.2591

*SUP 4: $1.2170 2% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* The decline has continued, leaving the Jan 5 low at $1.2355 behind,

as we look to test the resolve of the lower 1% volatility band at $1.2294 by

time today. Lower and the 76.4% Fibo retrace at $1.2264 offers next protection

against a deeper $1.2209 fall. Meanwhile, resistance is layered between

$1.2340-$1.2366, needing to escape the latter before any correction has room to

breathe.

     GOLD TECHS: $1357.7 Break opens Way To $1367.3-$1380.3 Next

*RES 4: $1401.2 13 month bull channel top projection

*RES 3: $1380.3 38.2% Fibo of $1920.5-$1046.4

*RES 2: $1375.4 July 2016 high

*RES 1: $1367.3 Aug 1 high

*PRICE: $1365.7 @0643GMT

*SUP 1: $1349.0 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1344.8 Jan 15 high, now support

*SUP 3: $1339.6 Jan 24 low

*SUP 4: $1333.2 Jan 18 high, now support

*COMMENTARY* The move above the 76.4% Fibo retrace level at $1284.5 gave the

upside the impetus it required. This makes the $1357.7-$1236.6 fall seen from

last September look like a three wave correction. The subsequent break through

$1337.1 the next upside boost, as we make our way back through the Sep 4 high at

$1357.7. This sees $1367.3-$1375.4 as next resistance ahead of the 38.2% Fibo at

$1380.3. Support rising too, $1349.0-$1344.8 now the nearest of note.

     OIL TECHS: NYMEX WTI: (H18) $66.66-$67.15 Next Potential Targets

*RES 4: $69.96 - 61.8% Fibo of $89.47-$38.40

*RES 3: $68.37 - Feb 2015 high

*RES 2: $67.15 - 6 week bull channel top

*RES 1: $66.66 - 1.618 swing of $57.97-$43.91

*PRICE: $66.29 @ 0645GMT

*SUP 1: $65.25 - Hourly support 

*SUP 2: $64.83 - Jan 15 high, now support

*SUP 3: $64.32 - Congestion lows Jan 23-24

*SUP 4: $64.13 - Jan 22 high, now support

*COMMENTARY: Rally continues, lately eyeing a rise towards $66.66, the swing

target of the $57.97-$43.91 pullback, seen in the early part of last year. Above

and the 6 week bull channel top is at $67.15 today, as we make our way towards

the next Fibo retrace of note, the 61.8% at $69.96. Support initially from

$65.25, loss would disappoint near term and allow some correction of recent

gains from $62.78.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]