MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

1 February 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Bears Need Close Below $1.2322

*RES 4: $1.2536 2018 High Jan 25

*RES 3: $1.2494 High Jan 26

*RES 2: $1.2475 High Jan 31

*RES 1: $1.2438 Hourly resistance Jan 31

*PRICE: $1.2421 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2378 Hourly support Jan 30 

*SUP 2: $1.2322 High Jan 17 now support 

*SUP 3: $1.2270 Hourly support Jan 24 

*SUP 4: $1.2213 Low Jan 22

*COMMENTARY: The $1.2322 support confirmed significance with bulls taking

comfort in the bounce Tuesday. Topside follow through remains lacking with bulls

needing a close above $1.2475 to reconfirm initial focus on 2018 highs and

overall focus on the weekly bear channel top ($1.2661). Bears look for a close

below $1.2322 to shift initial focus back to $1.2156-1.2225 where the 21-DMA

($1.2225) is noted.

     CABLE TECHS: $1.4096 & $1.4232 Levels Now Key

*RES 4: $1.4373 Bollinger band top 

*RES 3: $1.4344 2018 High Jan 25 

*RES 2: $1.4286 High Jan 26 

*RES 1: $1.4232 High Jan 31

*PRICE: $1.4192 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1.4139 Low Jan 31 

*SUP 2: $1.4096 Hourly resistance Jan 29 now support 

*SUP 3: $1.3977 Low Jan 30 

*SUP 4: $1.3914 Low Jan 23

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in support layers emerging following the dip

back to $1.3977 Tuesday with a close above $1.4232 now needed to reconfirm

initial focus on tests of 2018 highs. Correcting O/B studies remain the key

concern for bulls. Bears now need a close below $1.4096 to ease renewed bullish

pressure and below the 21-DMA ($1.3870) to shift initial focus back to

$1.3612-1.3720.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: O/S Studies Key Concern, Bulls Need Close Above Y110.18

*RES 4: Y110.67 21-DMA 

*RES 3: Y110.55 Hourly resistance Jan 23 

*RES 2: Y110.18 Low Jan 18 now resistance 

*RES 1: Y109.76 High Jan 26

*PRICE: Y109.26 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Y108.87 Hourly support Jan 31 

*SUP 2: Y108.40 Low Jan 30 

*SUP 3: Y108.27 Low Jan 26 

*SUP 4: Y108.12 Low Sept 11

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in hesitation ahead of recent 2018 lows with

follow through lacking as support emerges on dips. Bears now need a close below

Y108.12 to reconfirm initial focus on Y107.31-58 where 2017 lows and the weekly

triangle base are located. Bulls still need a close above Y110.18 to ease

bearish pressure and above the 21-DMA to confirm focus on Y111.22-112.86 where

key DMAs and bear channel top are noted.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Above Y136.62 Targets Y139.02-141.05

*RES 4: Y139.02 Monthly High Aug 2015

*RES 3: Y136.71 Bollinger band top

*RES 2: Y136.62 2018 High Jan 5

*RES 1: Y136.32 High Jan 8

*PRICE: Y135.75 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Y135.37 Hourly support Jan 31 

*SUP 2: Y135.10 Hourly support Jan 31a 

*SUP 3: Y134.64 Hourly support Jan 30 

*SUP 4: Y134.13 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The Y133.52-134.13 support region where 55 & 100-DMAs and the bull

channel base are located confirmed significance Tuesday. The bounce provided

bulls breathing room and sees focus reconfirmed on Y136.32-62. A close above

Y136.62 is needed to target Y139.02-141.05 monthly highs. Bears need a close

below Y135.10 to ease pressure on resistance and below the 100-DMA to target

Y130.41-132.03 where the 200-DMA (Y130.41) is noted.

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: Key DMAs Capping

*RES 4: Gbp0.8868 Daily Bear channel top 

*RES 3: Gbp0.8852 100-DMA 

*RES 2: Gbp0.8851 200-DMA 

*RES 1: Gbp0.8814 21-DMA

*PRICE: Gbp0.8749 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.8719 Hourly support Jan 25 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.8685 2018 Low Jan 25 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.8649 Low May 8 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.8599 Low May 24

*COMMENTARY: Bears take comfort as the recovery from 2018 lows remains capped

ahead of key DMAs and the daily bear channel top. Bulls need a close above the

bear channel top to end bearish hopes and shift focus to layers of resistance

Gbp0.8928-0.9048. The pair remains heavy following topside failures with bears

now initially focused on 2018 lows and then the 100-WMA (Gbp0.8578) on a close

below.

     AUSSIE TECHS: Topside Hesitation Leaves Pair Looking Heavy

*RES 4: $0.8162 - Monthly high May 14 2015

*RES 3: $0.8135 - 2018 High Jan 26

*RES 2: $0.8118 - High Jan 29

*RES 1: $0.8079 - Hourly resistance Jan 31

*PRICE: $0.8046 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $0.8026 - Daily Bull channel base 

*SUP 2: $0.8002 - Low Jan 26 

*SUP 3: $0.7990 - Low Jan 24 

*SUP 4: $0.7972 - 21-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of $0.8135-62 remains a concern given daily

studies looking to correct from O/B. Bulls look for a close above $0.8162 to

shift focus to $0.8295-0.8542 where the weekly bull channel top ($0.8456) is

noted. The break of $0.8040 following Wednesday's topside failure leaves the

pair looking heavy and risks a correction to $0.7916-72 where the 21-DMA is

noted. Below $0.7916 remains needed to target $0.7729-0.7802.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above 90.113

*RES 4: 90.294 - Hourly resistance Jan 23 

*RES 3: 90.113 - Hourly resistance Jan 24 

*RES 2: 89.637 - High Jan 30 

*RES 1: 89.320 - Hourly resistance Jan 30

*PRICE: 89.075 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 88.780 - Low Jan 31

*SUP 2: 88.723 - Low Jan 26

*SUP 3: 88.438 - 2018 Low Jan 25

*SUP 4: 88.125 - Monthly Low Dec 16 2014

*COMMENTARY: Correcting O/S daily studies remain the key concern for bears who

are currently focused on 88.125 Dec 2014 monthly lows. Layers of resistance

remain and weigh. Bulls still need a close above 90.113 to gain breathing room

and above 91.011 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA (90.557) and shift focus to

92.254-997 where 55 & 100-DMAs are noted. Bears need a close below 88.438 to add

weight to their case.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 2.654-676 Support Region Key

*RES 4: 2.912 - High Jan 15 2014 

*RES 3: 2.821 - Monthly High Mar 7 2014 

*RES 2: 2.802 - Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 1: 2.754 - 2018 High Jan 31

*PRICE: 2.728 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 2.696 - Low Jan 31 

*SUP 2: 2.676 - High Jan 25 now support 

*SUP 3: 2.654 - Hourly support Jan 26 

*SUP 4: 2.609 - Low Jan 24

*COMMENTARY: The 2.609 support provided the base for fresh 2018 & 3+ year highs

with immediate bullish focus on 2.802-912 and overall focus on 3.041 2014 highs

(Jan 2). The Bollinger band top (2.771) and O/B studies remain concerns for

bulls. Layers of support are building with bears needing a close below 2.676 to

ease bullish pressure and below 2.654 to hint at a correction to 2.571-609 where

key supports and the 21-DMA are noted.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (H18) $62.78-63.83 Support Now Key 

*RES 4: $69.54 - High Dec 1 2014 

*RES 3: $66.66 - 2018 High Jan 25 

*RES 2: $65.68 - Hourly resistance Jan 29 

*RES 1: $65.19 - Hourly resistance Jan 30

*PRICE: $64.80 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $63.83 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 2: $63.67 - Low Jan 31 

*SUP 3: $62.78 - Low Jan 19 

*SUP 4: $62.05 - High Jan 4 now support

*COMMENTARY: The 21-DMA is currently supporting as daily studies correcting from

O/B add weight to the bearish case. Bears now look for a close below $63.67 to

confirm a break of the 21-DMA and below $62.78 to initially focus on

$58.82-60.75 where the 55-DMA ($60.05) is found. Bulls now look for a close

above $65.68 to reconfirm focus on $69.54 (Dec 1 2014 high). Above $69.54

targets $71.08-73.25.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: Below $1331.2 Targets $1302.5-1305.6

*RES 4: $1367.3 - Monthly High Aug 2 2016 

*RES 3: $1359.7 - Hourly support Jan 25 now resistance 

*RES 2: $1352.3 - High Jan 29 

*RES 1: $1348.9 - High Jan 30

*PRICE: $1345.0 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1334.0 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 2: $1331.2 - Low Jan 23 

*SUP 3: $1323.7 - Low Jan 18 

*SUP 4: $1315.4 - Low Jan 11

*COMMENTARY: Following on from a lack of follow through on last week's 2018 high

bulls take comfort in support emerging on dips back to the 21-DMA. Bears look

for a close below $1331.2 to shift initial focus to $1302.5-1305.6. Initial

resistance is noted at $1348.9 but bulls need a close above $1352.3 to gain

breathing room and above $1374.9 to confirm focus on $ $1391.8-1433.3.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]