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MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis
2 February 2018
By Kyle Shortland
Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis
Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s
EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Weekly Bear Chanel Top Lurking Above
*RES 4: $1.2661 LT Weekly Bear Channel top (Off 2008 High)
*RES 3: $1.2599 Monthly High Nov 19 2014
*RES 2: $1.2569 Monthly High Dec 16 2014
*RES 1: $1.2536 2018 High Jan 25
*PRICE: $1.2498 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: $1.2475 High Jan 31 now support
*SUP 2: $1.2425 Hourly support Feb 1
*SUP 3: $1.2378 Hourly support Jan 30
*SUP 4: $1.2322 High Jan 17 now support
*COMMENTARY: The $1.2322 support confirmed significance with bulls taking
comfort in the bounce Tuesday. Thursdays gains see focus back on 2018 highs.
Bulls look for a close above $1.2536 to add support to the case for a tests of
the LT weekly bear channel top. Support layers are building but bears need a
close below $1.2322 to shift initial focus back to $1.2156-1.2250 where the
21-DMA ($1.2250) is noted.
CABLE TECHS: Pressuring $1.4286-1.4386 Region
*RES 4: $1.4425 Bollinger band top
*RES 3: $1.4386 200-WMA
*RES 2: $1.4344 2018 High Jan 25
*RES 1: $1.4286 High Jan 26
*PRICE: $1.4260 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: $1.4188 Hourly support Feb 1
*SUP 2: $1.4119 Low Jan 31
*SUP 3: $1.4096 Hourly resistance Jan 29 now support
*SUP 4: $1.3977 Low Jan 30
*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in support layers emerging following the dip
back to $1.3977 Tuesday with immediate focus returned to the $1.4286-1.4386
region where 2018 highs and the 200-WMA are situated. A close above the 200-WMA
was last seen in 2014. Bears now need a close below $1.4188 to gain breathing
room and below $1.4119 to shift focus back to $1.3907-77 where the 21-DMA is
noted.
DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above Y110.18
*RES 4: Y111.23 High Jan 22
*RES 3: Y110.51 21-DMA
*RES 2: Y110.18 Low Jan 18 now resistance
*RES 1: Y109.76 High Jan 26
*PRICE: Y109.62 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: Y109.23 Hourly support Feb 1
*SUP 2: Y108.87 Hourly support Jan 31
*SUP 3: Y108.40 Low Jan 30
*SUP 4: Y108.27 Low Jan 26
*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in hesitation ahead of recent 2018 lows with
follow through lacking as support emerges on dips. Bears still need a close
below Y108.12 to reconfirm initial focus on Y107.31-58 where 2017 lows and the
weekly triangle base are located. Bulls look for a close above Y110.18 to ease
bearish pressure and above the 21-DMA to confirm focus on Y111.22-112.66 where
key DMAs and bear channel top are noted.
EURO-YEN TECHS: Bulls Targeting Y139.02-141.05
*RES 4: Y139.57 Daily Bull channel top
*RES 3: Y139.02 Monthly High Aug 21 2015
*RES 2: Y137.58 High Aug 26 2015
*RES 1: Y137.10 Bollinger band top
*PRICE: Y137.02 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: Y136.64 Hourly support Feb 2
*SUP 2: Y135.95 Hourly support Feb 1
*SUP 3: Y135.37 21-DMA
*SUP 4: Y135.10 Hourly support Jan 31a
*COMMENTARY: The Y133.53-134.15 support confirmed significance Tuesday. The
recovery has resulted in fresh 2018 & 2+yr highs and confirms overall bullish
focus on Y139.02-141.05 where monthly highs are located. Support layers
accumulating add to bullish confidence. Bears now need a close below Y135.95 to
ease immediate bullish pressure and below the 21-DMA to return focus to
Y133.57-134.15 where 55 & 100-DMAs and bull channel base are found.
EURO-STERLING TECHS: Key DMAs Capping
*RES 4: Gbp0.8852 200-DMA
*RES 3: Gbp0.8833 55-DMA
*RES 2: Gbp0.8808 21-DMA
*RES 1: Gbp0.8776 Hourly resistance Feb 2
*PRICE: Gbp0.8761 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: Gbp0.8714 Low Feb 1
*SUP 2: Gbp0.8685 2018 Low Jan 25
*SUP 3: Gbp0.8649 Low May 8
*SUP 4: Gbp0.8599 Low May 24
*COMMENTARY: Bears take comfort as the recovery from 2018 lows remains capped
ahead of key DMAs and the daily bear channel top. Bulls need a close above the
bear channel top to end bearish hopes and shift focus to layers of resistance
Gbp0.8928-0.9048. The pair remains heavy following topside failures with bears
now initially focused on 2018 lows and then the 100-WMA (Gbp0.8578) on a close
below.
AUSSIE TECHS: Bears Looking For Close Below 21-DMA
*RES 4: $0.8135 - 2018 High Jan 26
*RES 3: $0.8118 - High Jan 29
*RES 2: $0.8079 - Hourly resistance Jan 31
*RES 1: $0.8046 - Hourly resistance Feb 1
*PRICE: $0.8003 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: $0.7985 - Low Feb 1
*SUP 2: $0.7970 - 21-DMA
*SUP 3: $0.7954 - Low Jan 23
*SUP 4: $0.7916 - High Jan 12
*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of $0.8135-62 remains a concern given daily
studies correcting from O/B. Bulls look for a close above $0.8079 to gain
breathing room and above $0.8162 to shift focus to $0.8295-0.8542 where the
weekly bull channel top ($0.8456) is noted. The break of $0.8040 following
Wednesday's topside failure leaves the pair looking heavy and risks a correction
to $0.7802-74 with below the 21-DMA to add weight to their case.
US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Below 88.438 Targets 86.879-87.627
*RES 4: 90.294 - Hourly resistance Jan 23
*RES 3: 90.113 - Hourly resistance Jan 24
*RES 2: 89.637 - High Jan 30
*RES 1: 89.328 - High Feb 1
*PRICE: 88.726 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: 88.438 - 2018 Low Jan 25
*SUP 2: 87.627 - Monthly Low Dec 16 2014
*SUP 3: 88.438 - 2018 Low Jan 25
*SUP 4: 87.526 - Weekly bear channel base
*COMMENTARY: The index remains heavy with immediate focus on 2018 lows and the
break lower needed to add weight to the case for a test of 86.879-87.627 where
the LT bear channel base and monthly lows are situated. O/S daily studies remain
a concern for bears. Bulls now need a close above 86.637 to gain breathing room
and above the 21-DMA (90.387) to hint at a move back to 91.751.
US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Pressuring Bull Channel Top
*RES 4: 3.041 - 2014 High Jan 2
*RES 3: 2.912 - High Jan 15 2014
*RES 2: 2.821 - Monthly High Mar 7 2014
*RES 1: 2.806 - Daily Bull channel top
*PRICE: 2.793 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: 2.754 - High Jan 31 now support
*SUP 2: 2.696 - Low Jan 31
*SUP 3: 2.676 - High Jan 25 now support
*SUP 4: 2.654 - Hourly support Jan 26
*COMMENTARY: The 2.609 support provided the base for repeated 2018 & 3+ year
highs with immediate bullish focus on 2.806-912 and overall focus on 3.041 2014
highs. The Bollinger band top (2.800) and O/B studies remain concerns for bulls.
Layers of support are building with bears needing a close below 2.754 to gain
breathing room and below 2.654 to shift focus back to 2.571-609 where the 21-DMA
(2.598) is noted.
NYMEX WTI TECHS: (H18) Above $66.66 Targets $68.42-71.27
*RES 4: $71.27 - Weekly bull channel top
*RES 3: $69.54 - High Dec 1 2014
*RES 2: $68.42 - Daily bull channel top
*RES 1: $66.66 - 2018 High Jan 25
*PRICE: $66.09 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $65.05 - Hourly support Feb 1
*SUP 2: $64.63 - Low Feb 1
*SUP 3: $63.89 - 21-DMA
*SUP 4: $63.67 - Low Jan 31
*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in the recovery from dips back to the 21-DMA
with bullish focus back on the break of $66.66 needed to shift focus to
$68.42-71.27 where daily and weekly bull channel tops are situated. The
Bollinger top ($66.69) is the key concern for bulls with potential to limit
follow through. Bears now need a close below $64.63 to ease renewed bullish
pressure.
SPOT GOLD TECHS: Below $1331.2 Targets $1302.5-1305.6
*RES 4: $1374.9 - 2016 High July 6 2016
*RES 3: $1367.3 - Monthly High Aug 2 2016
*RES 2: $1359.7 - Hourly support Jan 25 now resistance
*RES 1: $1352.3 - High Jan 29
*PRICE: $1347.7 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: $1335.5 - 21-DMA
*SUP 2: $1331.2 - Low Jan 23
*SUP 3: $1323.7 - Low Jan 18
*SUP 4: $1315.4 - Low Jan 11
*COMMENTARY: After a lack of follow through on last week's 2018 high bulls take
comfort in support emerging on dips back to the 21-DMA. Bears look for a close
below $1331.2 to shift initial focus to $1302.5-1305.6. Initial resistance is
noted at $1352.3 with bulls needing a close above to gain breathing room and
above $1374.9 to confirm focus on $ $1391.8-1433.3.
--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]
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of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.