MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

5 February 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Weekly Bear Chanel Top Lurking Above

*RES 4: $1.2569 Monthly High Dec 16 2014

*RES 3: $1.2536 2018 High Jan 25

*RES 2: $1.2522 High Feb 1

*RES 1: $1.2498 Hourly resistance Feb 2

*PRICE: $1.2456 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2407 Low Feb 2 

*SUP 2: $1.2378 Hourly support Jan 30 

*SUP 3: $1.2322 High Jan 17 now support 

*SUP 4: $1.2268 21-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The $1.2322 support confirmed significance with bulls taking

comfort in the bounce Tuesday. The recovery has remained capped ahead of 2018

highs and remains a little heavy. Bears need a close below $1.2322 to hint at a

correction back to $1.2092-1.2156 with below the 21-DMA to add weight to their

case. Bulls need a close above $1.2536 to add support to the case for a tests of

the LT weekly bear channel top ($1.2670).

     CABLE TECHS: Remains Capped On Approach To 200-WMA

*RES 4: $1.4372 200-WMA 

*RES 3: $1.4344 2018 High Jan 25 

*RES 2: $1.4286 High Jan 26 

*RES 1: $1.4188 Hourly support Feb 1 now resistance

*PRICE: $1.4113 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1.4081 Hourly support Feb 5 

*SUP 2: $1.3977 Low Jan 30 

*SUP 3: $1.3927 21-DMA 

*SUP 4: $1.3914 Low Jan 23

*COMMENTARY: Continued hesitation on approach to the 200-WMA is a concern for

bulls and combined with correcting O/B daily studies increases the risk of a

correction initially targeting $1.3914-77. Overall bears need a close below

$1.3914 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and shift focus to $1.3585-1.3720.

Bulls now need a close above $1.4188 to gain breathing room and above the

200-WMA to target $1.5018.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: 21-DMA Now Capping

*RES 4: Y111.75 55-DMA 

*RES 3: Y111.71 200-DMA 

*RES 2: Y111.23 High Jan 22 

*RES 1: Y110.40 21-DMA

*PRICE: Y110.01 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Y109.90 Hourly resistance Feb 2 now support 

*SUP 2: Y109.23 Hourly support Feb 1 

*SUP 3: Y108.87 Hourly support Jan 31 

*SUP 4: Y108.40 Low Jan 30

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in hesitation ahead of recent 2018 lows with

follow through lacking as support emerged on dips. The 21-DMA capped Friday

which is less than ideal with bulls now needing a close above to confirm focus

on Y111.22-112.66 where key DMAs and the bear channel top are situated.

Correcting O/S studies add to bullish confidence. Bears now look for a close

below Y109.23 to return initial focus to Y108.12-40.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Bears Need Close Below Y135.95

*RES 4: Y139.62 Daily Bull channel top

*RES 3: Y139.02 Monthly High Aug 21 2015

*RES 2: Y137.58 High Aug 26 2015

*RES 1: Y137.23 Bollinger band top

*PRICE: Y137.05 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Y136.64 Hourly support Feb 2 

*SUP 2: Y135.95 Hourly support Feb 1 

*SUP 3: Y135.43 21-DMA 

*SUP 4: Y135.10 Hourly support Jan 31a

*COMMENTARY: The Y133.53-134.15 support confirmed significance Tuesday. The

recovery resulted in fresh 2018 & 2+yr highs and confirmed overall bullish focus

on Y139.02-141.05 where monthly highs are located. Support layers accumulating

add to bullish confidence. Bears now need a close below Y135.95 to ease

immediate bullish pressure and below the 21-DMA to return focus to

Y133.61-134.32 where 55 & 100-DMAs and bull channel base are found.

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above Bear Channel Top

*RES 4: Gbp0.8906 Bollinger band top 

*RES 3: Gbp0.8861 Daily bear channel top (Off 2017 high) 

*RES 2: Gbp0.8855 200-DMA 

*RES 1: Gbp0.8834 55-DMA

*PRICE: Gbp0.8824 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.8809 21-DMA 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.8776 Hourly resistance Feb 2 now support 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.8714 Low Feb 1 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.8685 2018 Low Jan 25

*COMMENTARY: Failure to trouble the 2018 lows on the most recent correction from

around key DMAs has resulted in pressure returning to resistance layers. Bulls

continue to look for a close above the bear channel top to confirm breaks of key

DMAs and to shift focus to Gbp0.8928-0.9048. The Gbp0.8776 support is key this

week. Bears need a close below to ease pressure on resistance layers and return

focus to 2018 lows.

     AUSSIE TECHS: Focus Shifts To $0.7229-0.7802

*RES 4: $0.8118 - High Jan 29

*RES 3: $0.8079 - Hourly resistance Jan 31

*RES 2: $0.8046 - Hourly resistance Feb 1

*RES 1: $0.7976 - 21-DMA

*PRICE: $0.7933 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7882 - Hourly support Jan 12 

*SUP 2: $0.7802 - Low Jan 3 

*SUP 3: $0.7783 - 55-DMA 

*SUP 4: $0.7746 - 200-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of $0.8135-62 has taken its toll with a sharp

sell-off and bearish close below the 21-DMA ($0.7976) leaving the pair looking

heavy and bears now focused on $0.7729-0.7802 where key DMAs are situated. Daily

studies are well placed for losses. Bulls now need a close above the 21-DMA to

ease immediate bearish pressure and above $0.8046 to shift initial focus back to

$0.8135-62.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Below 88.438 Targets 86.879-87.627

*RES 4: 90.294 - Hourly resistance Jan 23 

*RES 3: 90.113 - Hourly resistance Jan 24 

*RES 2: 89.637 - High Jan 30 

*RES 1: 89.425 - High Feb 2

*PRICE: 89.145 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 88.925 - Hourly resistance Feb 1 now support

*SUP 2: 88.438 - 2018 Low Jan 25

*SUP 3: 87.627 - Monthly Low Dec 16 2014

*SUP 4: 87.451 - Weekly bear channel base

*COMMENTARY: Pressure returning to 2018 lows has failed to produce the close

below needed to add weight to the case for a test of the weekly bear channel

base. Correcting O/S studies remain the key concern for bears. Bulls now need a

close above 89.637 to ease immediate bearish pressure and above the 21-DMA

(90.282) to shift initial focus to 91.011-751. While 89.637 caps bears focus on

a close below 88.438.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Support Layers Building

*RES 4: 3.223 - Monthly High July 1 2011 

*RES 3: 3.073 - Low July 6 2011 now resistance 

*RES 2: 3.041 - 2014 High Jan 2 

*RES 1: 2.912 - High Jan 15 2014

*PRICE: 2.864 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 2.820 - Hourly support Feb 2 

*SUP 2: 2.801 - Hourly resistance Feb 2 now support 

*SUP 3: 2.783 - Low Feb 2 

*SUP 4: 2.754 - High Jan 31 now support

*COMMENTARY: The 2.609 support provided the base for repeated 2018 & 3+ year

highs with immediate bullish focus on 2.912-3.041 and overall focus now on

3.223. The Bollinger band top (2.847) and O/B studies remain concerns for bulls.

Layers of support are building with bears needing a close below 2.820 to gain

breathing room and below 2.754 to shift focus back to 2.676-696. Bulls now look

for a close above 2.912 to add support to their case.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (H18) Topside Failures A Concern 

*RES 4: $68.67 - Daily bull channel top 

*RES 3: $66.66 - 2018 High Jan 25 

*RES 2: $66.30 - High Feb 2 

*RES 1: $65.76 - Hourly resistance Feb 2

*PRICE: $64.77 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $64.47 - Low Feb 2 

*SUP 2: $64.21 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 3: $63.67 - Low Jan 31 

*SUP 4: $62.78 - Low Jan 19

*COMMENTARY: Repeated failures to trouble 2018 highs are a concern for bulls and

risk a correction back to the $60.22-62.05 region where the 55-DMA is located.

Bears now look for a close below $63.67 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and

shift focus to $60.22-62.05. Bulls continue to look for a close above $66.66 to

shift focus to $68.67-71.27 where daily and weekly bull channel tops are

situated.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: Bears Now Focused On $1302.5-1305.6

*RES 4: $1367.3 - Monthly High Aug 2 2016 

*RES 3: $1359.7 - Hourly support Jan 25 now resistance 

*RES 2: $1352.3 - High Jan 29 

*RES 1: $1336.9 - Hourly resistance Feb 2

*PRICE: $1330.6 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1327.1 - Low Feb 2 

*SUP 2: $1323.7 - Low Jan 18 

*SUP 3: $1315.4 - Low Jan 11 

*SUP 4: $1305.9 - Low Jan 4

*COMMENTARY: The failure to break back above $1352.3 last week left gold looking

heavy and resulted in a marginal close below the 21-DMA ($1335.2) Friday adding

weight to the case for a test of $1302.5-1305.6. Layers of resistance are

accumulating and weighing with bulls needing a close above $1252.3 to regain the

upper hand and above $1374.9 to confirm focus on $1391.8-1433.3.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]