MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

6 February 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Click below for today's MNI FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Pressure Back On Key Support

*RES 4: $1.2522 High Feb 1

*RES 3: $1.2498 Hourly resistance Feb 2

*RES 2: $1.2431 Hourly resistance Feb 5a

*RES 1: $1.2397 Hourly resistance Feb 5

*PRICE: $1.2350 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2322 High Jan 17 now support 

*SUP 2: $1.2283 21-DMA 

*SUP 3: $1.2213 Low Jan 22 

*SUP 4: $1.2156 Hourly resistance Jan 12 now support

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from last week's bounce remained capped ahead of 2018

highs and leaves the pair looking offered. Bears need a close below $1.2322 to

hint at a correction back to $1.2092-1.2156 with below the 21-DMA to add weight

to their case. Bulls now need a close above $1.2431 to gain breathing room and

above $1.2536 to target the LT weekly bear channel top ($1.2670).

     CABLE TECHS: Below $1.3914 Targets 1.3585-1.3720

*RES 4: $1.4286 High Jan 26 

*RES 3: $1.4188 Hourly support Feb 1 now resistance 

*RES 2: $1.4081 Hourly support Feb 5 now resistance 

*RES 1: $1.3985 Hourly support Feb 5 now resistance

*PRICE: $1.3941 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3914 Low Jan 23 

*SUP 2: $1.3720 Low Jan 15 

*SUP 3: $1.3656 High Sept 20 now support 

*SUP 4: $1.3617 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Topside failures ahead of the 200-WMA ($1.4371) have taken their

toll with a correction lower that sees immediate focus on $1.3914-37 where the

21-DMA is located. Bears now need a close below $1.3914 to confirm a break of

the 21-DMA and shift focus to $1.3585-1.3720 with the 55-DMA at $1.3617. Bulls

now need a close above $1.4081 to gain breathing room and above the 200-WMA to

target $1.5018.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Bears Need Close Below Y108.12

*RES 4: Y110.47 High Feb 2 

*RES 3: Y110.15 21-DMA 

*RES 2: Y109.63 Hourly support Feb 5 now resistance 

*RES 1: Y109.33 Hourly resistance Feb 5

*PRICE: Y108.46 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Y108.40 Low Jan 30 

*SUP 2: Y108.27 Low Jan 26 

*SUP 3: Y108.12 Low Sept 11 

*SUP 4: Y107.76 Weekly Triangle base

*COMMENTARY: Topside failures around the 21-DMA have taken their toll with a

sell-off that sees immediate pressure on Y108.12-40 and overall focus on

Y107.31-76 where the rising weekly triangle base and 2017 lows are situated.

Daily studies lingering around O/S levels are less than ideal. Bulls now need a

close above Y109.63 to ease bearish pressure and above Y110.47 to initially

target Y111.22-112.59 where key DMAs and the bear channel top are noted.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Pressure Back On Key Supports

*RES 4: Y137.58 High Aug 26 2015

*RES 3: Y137.22 High Feb 5

*RES 2: Y135.95 Hourly support Feb 1 now resistance

*RES 1: Y135.42 Hourly resistance Feb 5

*PRICE: Y134.15 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Y133.82 Low Jan 12 

*SUP 2: Y133.60 100-DMA 

*SUP 3: Y133.04 2018 Low Jan 11 

*SUP 4: Y132.03 Monthly Low Dec 15

*COMMENTARY: The lack of topside follow through after recent 2018 & 2+yr highs

has resulted in a correction back towards the Y133.60-134.18 region where the

100-DMA and bull channel base are located. Bears look for a close below the

100-DMA to hint at a move back to the 200-DMA (Y130.62) with below Y133.04 to

confirm. Bulls now need a close above Y135.95 to ease pressure on key supports

and return focus to Y137.22-58 where 2018 highs are found.

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: Flirting With Bear Channel Top

*RES 4: Gbp0.8981 High Nov 28 

*RES 3: Gbp0.8928 High Jan 12 

*RES 2: Gbp0.8914 Bollinger band top 

*RES 1: Gbp0.8873 High Feb 5

*PRICE: Gbp0.8861 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.8849 Hourly support Feb 5 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.8812 21-DMA 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.8776 Hourly resistance Feb 2 now support 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.8714 Low Feb 1

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in closes above key DMAs with the pair now

flirting with the daily bear channel top (Gbp0.8857). Bulls look for a close

above Monday's high to confirm a break and shift initial focus to

Gbp0.8928-0.9048. Daily studies have room to move before O/B becomes an issue.

Bears now need a close below the 21-DMA to ease bullish pressure and below

Gbp0.8776 to shift focus back to 2018 lows.

     AUSSIE TECHS: Bears Focused On $0.7229-0.7802

*RES 4: $0.8046 - Hourly resistance Feb 1

*RES 3: $0.7975 - 21-DMA

*RES 2: $0.7954 - High Feb 5

*RES 1: $0.7893 - Hourly resistance Feb 6

*PRICE: $0.7841 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7809 - Bollinger band base 

*SUP 2: $0.7802 - Low Jan 3 

*SUP 3: $0.7788 - 55-DMA 

*SUP 4: $0.7747 - 200-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of $0.8135-62 has taken its toll with a sharp

sell-off and bearish closes below the 21-DMA leaving the pair looking heavy and

bears focused on $0.7729-0.7802 where key DMAs are situated. Daily studies are

well placed for losses. Bulls need a close above the 21-DMA to ease immediate

bearish pressure and above $0.8046 to shift initial focus back to $0.8135-62.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: 21-DMA Resistance Now Key

*RES 4: 91.011 - Low Sept 8 now resistance 

*RES 3: 90.294 - Hourly resistance Jan 23 

*RES 2: 90.168 - 21-DMA 

*RES 1: 90.113 - Hourly resistance Jan 24

*PRICE: 89.604 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 89.385 - Hourly support Feb 5

*SUP 2: 88.925 - Hourly resistance Feb 1 now support

*SUP 3: 88.438 - 2018 Low Jan 25

*SUP 4: 87.627 - Monthly Low Dec 16 2014

*COMMENTARY: Pressure returning to 2018 lows has failed to produce the close

below needed to add weight to the case for a test of the weekly bear channel

base. Correcting O/S studies remain the key concern for bears. Bulls now need a

close above the 21-DMA (90.168) to shift initial focus to 91.011-751. Bears now

need a close below 89.385 to ease renewed bullish pressure and return initial

focus to 88.438.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Bearish Key Day Reversal

*RES 4: 2.801 - Alternating support/resistance 

*RES 3: 2.783 - Low Feb 2 now resistance 

*RES 2: 2.754 - Alternating support/resistance 

*RES 1: 2.704 - Hourly resistance Feb 6

*PRICE: 2.653 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 2.643 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 2: 2.609 - Low Jan 24 

*SUP 3: 2.585 - Low Jan 18 

*SUP 4: 2.571 - Hourly resistance Jan 17 now support

*COMMENTARY: The rally that has defined 2018 looks to be in trouble with a

bearish key day reversal taking out a number of support layers. Bears now look

for a close below 2.585 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and shift focus to

2.489-522 where the 55-DMA and bull channel base are situated. Correcting O/B

studies add weight to the bearish case. Bulls now need a close above 2.754 to

ease bearish pressure and above 2.820 to shift focus back to 2.885-912.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (H18) Remains Offered 

*RES 4: $65.76 - Hourly resistance Feb 2 

*RES 3: $65.40 - High Feb 5 

*RES 2: $64.47 - Low Feb 2 now resistance 

*RES 1: $64.26 - 21-DMA

*PRICE: $63.43 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $62.78 - Low Jan 19 

*SUP 2: $62.05 - High Jan 4 now support 

*SUP 3: $60.75 - High Jan 2 now support 

*SUP 4: $60.50 - 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Repeated failures to trouble 2018 highs are a concern for bulls and

risks a correction back to the $60.37-62.05 region where the 55-DMA is located.

Bears now look for a close below $62.78 to add weight to their case. Daily

studies are well placed for a fresh leg lower. Bulls now need a close above

$64.47 to ease bearish pressure and above $65.43 to reconfirm initial focus on

2018 highs.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: Above $1352.3 To Reconfirm Bullish Focus

*RES 4: $1374.9 - 2016 High July 6 2016 

*RES 3: $1367.3 - Monthly High Aug 2 2016 

*RES 2: $1359.7 - Hourly support Jan 25 now resistance 

*RES 1: $1352.3 - High Jan 29

*PRICE: $1344.7 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1335.8 - Hourly support Feb 6 

*SUP 2: $1327.1 - Low Feb 2 

*SUP 3: $1323.7 - Low Jan 18 

*SUP 4: $1315.4 - Low Jan 11

*COMMENTARY: Bears have failed to gain traction below the 21-DMA ($1336.8) with

gold finding support on dips and pressure focus returning to the $1352.3

resistance. Bulls need a close above $1352.3 to regain the upper hand and above

$1374.9 to confirm focus on $1391.8-1433.3. Layers of support are starting to

build with bears now needing a close below $1323.7 to reconfirm focus on

$1302.5-1305.6.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]