MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

12 February 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Bears Focused On $1.2092-1.2156

*RES 4: $1.2406 High Feb 7 

*RES 3: $1.2363 Hourly support Feb 7 now resistance

*RES 2: $1.2327 21-DMA

*RES 1: $1.2299 Hourly resistance Feb 12

*PRICE: $1.2279 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2241 Hourly support Feb 12 

*SUP 2: $1.2204 Low Feb 9 

*SUP 3: $1.2156 Hourly resistance Jan 12 now support 

*SUP 4: $1.2092 High Jan 4 now support

*COMMENTARY: Pressure on the 21-DMA resulted in closes below and confirmed

bearish focus on $1.2092-1.2156. Daily studies approaching O/S are a concern for

bears. In saying that, bulls now look for a close above the 21-DMA to gain

breathing room and above $1.2433 to return focus to 2018 highs and then the

weekly bear channel top ($1.2665). Overall bears need a close below $1.1914 2018

lows to shift focus back to $1.1489-1.1552.

     CABLE TECHS: Bears Targeting 55-DMA

*RES 4: $1.4286 High Jan 26 

*RES 3: $1.4188 Hourly support Feb 1 now resistance 

*RES 2: $1.4081 Hourly support Feb 5 now resistance 

*RES 1: $1.3994 21-DMA

*PRICE: $1.3862 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3805 Hourly support Feb 12 

*SUP 2: $1.3763 Low Feb 9 

*SUP 3: $1.3720 Low Jan 15 

*SUP 4: $1.3656 High Sept 20 now support

*COMMENTARY: The 21-DMA capped Friday with the sell-off seeing bears now focused

on tests of the $1.3656-57 region where the 55-DMA is situated. Bears need a

close below the 55-DMA to target $1.3419-60 where the bull channel base off Mar

2017 lows is located. Bulls look for a close above the 21-DMA to ease bearish

pressure and above $1.4081 to shift focus back to 2018 highs.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Y109.79-110.47 Resistance Region Key

*RES 4: Y111.23 High Jan 22 

*RES 3: Y110.47 High Feb 2 

*RES 2: Y109.78 High Feb 8 

*RES 1: Y109.29 Hourly resistance Feb 9

*PRICE: Y108.64 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Y108.03 2018 Low Feb 9 

*SUP 2: Y107.89 Weekly Triangle base 

*SUP 3: Y107.31 2017 Low Sept 8 

*SUP 4: Y106.63 Daily Bear channel base

*COMMENTARY: The pair remained capped ahead of the 21-DMA last week resulting in

fresh 2018 & 5mth lows. The lack of downside follow through is less than idea

with the Bollinger base noted at Y107.96. The Y109.78 resistance is key this

week. Bulls need a close above to confirm breaks of the 21-DMA (Y109.67) and

bear channel top (Y109.55) to ease bearish pressure and above Y110.47 to

initially target Y111.22-112.49 where key DMAs and a bear channel top are noted.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Lacking Follow Through Below Y133.04

*RES 4: Y135.09 Alternating hourly support/resistance

*RES 3: Y134.79 High Feb 8

*RES 2: Y134.15 Hourly resistance Feb 9

*RES 1: Y133.61 100-DMA

*PRICE: Y133.49 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Y132.61 Hourly support Feb 9 

*SUP 2: Y131.96 2018 Low Feb 9 

*SUP 3: Y131.15 Monthly Low Nov 20 

*SUP 4: Y130.82 200-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The correction from 2018 highs resulted in closes below the 21-WMA

(Y133.70) and 100-DMA (Y133.61) but follow through below Y133.04 has been

lacking courtesy of the Bollinger base (Y133.18). Bulls need a close above

Y135.09 to ease bearish pressure and above Y135.95 to shift focus back to 2018

highs (Y137.50). While Y135.09 caps immediate focus shifts to Y130.59-131.15

where monthly lows and 200-DMA are noted.

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: Flirting With 200-DMA

*RES 4: Gbp0.8981 High Nov 28 

*RES 3: Gbp0.8928 High Jan 12 

*RES 2: Gbp0.8909 High Feb 6 

*RES 1: Gbp0.8879 High Feb 9

*PRICE: Gbp0.8860 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.8843 Hourly support Feb 9

*SUP 2: Gbp0.8821 Hourly resistance Feb 8 now support 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.8776 Low Feb 9 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.8730 Low Feb 8

*COMMENTARY: Following on from last week's volatility the pair is now flirting

with the 200-DMA (Gbp0.8864) with a close above needed to add support to the

bullish case. In saying that bulls still need a close above Gbp0.8928 to end

bearish hopes and initially target Gbp0.9013-48. Layers of support building add

to bullish confidence. Bears now need a close below Gbp0.8821 to ease bullish

pressure and below Gbp0.87746 to shift focus back to Gbp0.8685-0.8730.

     AUSSIE TECHS: Close Below $0.7729 Targets Dec Low

*RES 4: $0.7966 - 21-DMA

*RES 3: $0.7954 - High Feb 5

*RES 2: $0.7911 - High Feb 6

*RES 1: $0.7843 - High Feb 8

*PRICE: $0.7834 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7756 - 200-DMA 

*SUP 2: $0.7729 - High Dec 25 now support 

*SUP 3: $0.7625 - Low Dec 14 

*SUP 4: $0.7618 - 100-WMA

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of $0.8135-62 took its toll with initial bearish

focus currently on the $0.7729-56 region where the 200-DMA is noted. The

Bollinger base ($0.7773) & O/S studies are key concerns for bears. Bulls need a

close above $0.7843 to ease bearish pressure and above the 21-DMA to shift focus

back to 2018 highs. Bears need a close below $0.7729 confirm breaks of DMA &

WMAS & to shift focus back to $0.7500 Dec lows.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Bears Need Close Below 21-DMA

*RES 4: 91.689 - Hourly support Jan 12a now resistance 

*RES 3: 91.523 - Hourly resistance Jan 12 

*RES 2: 91.011 - Low Sept 8 now resistance 

*RES 1: 90.567 - High Feb 8

*PRICE: 90.124 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 90.013 - Low Feb 8

*SUP 2: 89.854 - 21-DMA

*SUP 3: 89.720 - Hourly resistance Feb 6 now support

*SUP 4: 89.373 - Low Feb 6

*COMMENTARY: Pressure returning to 2018 lows failed to produce the close below

needed to add weight to the case for a test of the weekly bear channel base

(87.177). The close above 90.113 eased bearish pressure and shifted focus to

91.011-751. Daily studies are well placed for gains. Bears need a close below

the 21-DMA to gain breathing room and below 89.373 to return initial focus to

88.438 2018 lows.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Double Daily Top, 2.741 Support Key

*RES 4: 3.073 - Low July 6 2011 now resistance 

*RES 3: 3.041 - 2014 High Jan 2 

*RES 2: 2.912 - High Jan 15 2014 

*RES 1: 2.885 - 2018 High Feb 6

*PRICE: 2.857 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 2.786 - Low Feb 9 

*SUP 2: 2.741 - Hourly support Feb 6 

*SUP 3: 2.707 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 4: 2.691 - Hourly support Feb 6a

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in the recovery from the sell-off with the yield

recovering from around the 21-DMA last week to retain pressure on 2018 highs.

Immediate focus has returned to 2.885-912 with overall focus on 2014 highs.

Bears need a close below 2.741 to confirm an easing of bullish pressure and to

shift initial focus back to 2.691-707 where the 21-DMA is located. O/B daily

studies looking to correct remain the key concern for bulls.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (J18) Below 100-DMA Targets 200-DMA 

*RES 4: $62.63 - Low Jan 19 now resistance 

*RES 3: $61.82 - High Feb 8 

*RES 2: $60.66 - 55-DMA 

*RES 1: $59.91 - Hourly support Feb 9 now resistance

*PRICE: $59.68 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $58.55 - Hourly support Feb 9 

*SUP 2: $57.88 - Low Feb 9 

*SUP 3: $57.53 - 100-DMA 

*SUP 4: $55.97 - 200-WMA

*COMMENTARY: Repeated failures to trouble 2018 highs resulted in a sell-off that

sees immediate focus now on the 100-DMA. Bears now look for a close below the

100-DMA to add weight to the case for a move then targeting the 200-DMA ($53.16)

although the 200-WMA may slow the move. Resistance layers have accumulated with

bulls now needing a close above the 55-DMA to ease bearish pressure and above

$63.94 to initially target 2018 highs.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: Bears Need Close Below 55-DMA

*RES 4: $1359.7 - Hourly support Jan 25 now resistance 

*RES 3: $1352.3 - High Jan 29 

*RES 2: $1339.0 - Hourly support Feb 6 now resistance 

*RES 1: $1332.6 - High Feb 7

*PRICE: $1323.6 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1318.8 - Hourly resistance Feb 9 now support 

*SUP 2: $1314.1 - Hourly support Feb 12 

*SUP 3: $1305.9 - Low Jan 4 

*SUP 4: $1303.1 - 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The correction lower from 2018 highs continues and has seen a dip

back towards $1302.5-1305.9 where the 55-DMA is located only to bounce

aggressively which is less than ideal for bears. Bulls still need a close above

$1332.6 to ease bearish pressure and above $1374.9 to confirm focus on

$1391.8-1433.3. Bears now look for a close below the 55-DMA to add weight the

case for a test of the 200-DMA.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]