MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

15 February 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Bulls Focused On LT Bear Channel Top

*RES 4: $1.2536 2018 High Jan 25

*RES 3: $1.2525 Bollinger band top

*RES 2: $1.2522 High Feb 1

*RES 1: $1.2498 Hourly resistance Feb 2

*PRICE: $1.2459 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2442 Hourly resistance Feb 14 now support 

*SUP 2: $1.2384 Hourly support Feb 14 

*SUP 3: $1.2330 Hourly resistance Feb 14 now support 

*SUP 4: $1.2277 Low Feb 14

*COMMENTARY: Having closed above the 21-DMA ($1.2254) Tuesday gains Wednesday

sees immediate focus back on the $1.2522-1.2665 region where the weekly bear

channel top and 2018 highs are situated. Daily studies are ideally placed for a

fresh leg higher. Layers of support have been left in the wake with bears now

needing a close below $1.2384 to ease bullish pressure and below $1.2163 to

initially pressure $1.2017-92.

     CABLE TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above $1.4081

*RES 4: $1.4188 Hourly support Feb 1 now resistance 

*RES 3: $1.4162 Low Feb 1 now resistance 

*RES 2: $1.4081 Hourly support Feb 5 now resistance 

*RES 1: $1.4065 High Feb 8

*PRICE: $1.4013 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3974 Hourly support Feb 14 

*SUP 2: $1.3923 High Feb 13 now support 

*SUP 3: $1.3794 Low Feb 12 

*SUP 4: $1.3763 Low Feb 9

*COMMENTARY: The recovery form the week's low and having looked offered sees the

pair flirting with the 21-DMA ($1.4019). Bulls now look for a close above

$1.4081 to hint at a shift higher in focus with above $1.4188 to confirm focus

on 2018 highs. Daily studies are well placed for gains. Bears now need a close

below $1.3923 to ease pressure on resistance layers and shift focus back to

$1.3689-1.3794 where the 55-DMA ($1.3689) is noted.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above Y108.03

*RES 4: Y108.42 Low Feb 12 now resistance 

*RES 3: Y108.03 Low Feb 9 now resistance 

*RES 2: Y107.54 Hourly resistance Feb 14 

*RES 1: Y107.17 Hourly resistance Feb 14

*PRICE: Y106.61 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Y106.18 Daily Bear channel base 

*SUP 2: Y105.89 High Nov 9 2016 now support 

*SUP 3: Y101.15 Monthly Low Nov 9 2016 

*SUP 4: Y100.07 Monthly Lows Sept 22 & 27 2016

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018/15mth lows leave the pair offered and open up for Y99.08

2016 lows. Immediate bearish focus is on the Y105.89 support with a close below

needed to add weight to the bearish case. The Y108.03 resistance remains key

with bulls needing a close above to hint at a decent correction. Overall bulls

need a close above Y109.79 to confirm breaks of the 21-DMA (Y109.16) and bear

channel top (Y109.09) with above Y110.47 to shift focus higher.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Downside Follow Through Remains Lacking

*RES 4: Y134.47 55-DMA

*RES 3: Y134.16 High Feb 9

*RES 2: Y133.78 High Feb 13

*RES 1: Y133.43 Hourly support Feb 13 now resistance

*PRICE: Y132.68 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Y132.43 Hourly resistance Feb 14 now support 

*SUP 2: Y131.59 2018 Low Feb 14 

*SUP 3: Y131.15 Monthly Low Nov 20 

*SUP 4: Y130.96 200-DMA

*COMMENTARY: 2018/3mth lows lack follow through which is a concern when combined

with daily studies at O/S levels. Layers of resistance remain with bulls now

needing a close above the 55-DMA to hint at a shift higher in focus and above

Y135.95 to initially target 2018 highs (Y137.50). Bears now need a close below

Y132.43 to gain breathing room. Overall a close below Y131.15 hints at a move

back to Y125.80-127.54 with below Y130.59 to confirm.

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: Above Gbp0.8928 Targets Gbp0.9013-48

*RES 4: Gbp0.9048 Low Aug 15 now resistance 

*RES 3: Gbp0.9013 Monthly High Nov 15 

*RES 2: Gbp0.8981 High Nov 28 

*RES 1: Gbp0.8928 High Jan 12

*PRICE: Gbp0.8896 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.8874 Low Feb 14 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.8841 Low Feb 12 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.8821 Hourly resistance Feb 8 now support 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.8776 Low Feb 9

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in closes above the 200-DMA (Gbp0.8870) that

adds support to the bullish case. In saying that bulls still need a close above

Gbp0.8928 to end bearish hopes and initially target Gbp0.9013-48. Layers of

support remain in place. Bears continue to look for a close below Gbp0.8821 to

ease bullish pressure and below Gbp0.8776 to shift focus back to

Gbp0.8685-0.8730.

     AUSSIE TECHS: Above $0.7985 Targets $0.8118-62

*RES 4: $0.8043 - High Feb 2

*RES 3: $0.7985 - Low Feb 1 now resistance

*RES 2: $0.7959 - 21-DMA

*RES 1: $0.7954 - High Feb 5

*PRICE: $0.7930 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7890 - Hourly resistance Feb 14 now support 

*SUP 2: $0.7867 - Hourly support Feb 14 

*SUP 3: $0.7819 - Hourly resistance Feb 14 now support 

*SUP 4: $0.7771 - Low Feb 14

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from another dip back towards the 200-DMA has been

aggressive and sees bulls looking for a close above $0.7985 to confirm a break

of the 21-DMA and return focus to the $0.8118-62 region where 2018 highs are

noted. Daily studies are well placed for a fresh leg higher. Bears now need a

close below $0.7867 to gain breathing room. Overall below $0.7729 confirms

breaks of DMA & WMAS & shifts focus back to $0.7500 Dec lows.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Focus On Weekly Bear Channel Base

*RES 4: 90.567 - High Feb 8 

*RES 3: 90.177 - High Feb 13 

*RES 2: 89.647 - Hourly support Feb 14 now resistance 

*RES 1: 89.429 - Hourly resistance Feb 14

*PRICE: 88.937 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 88.438 - 2018 Low Jan 25

*SUP 2: 87.627 - Monthly Low Dec 16 2014

*SUP 3: 87.202 - Weekly Bear channel base

*SUP 4: 86.879 - Low Nov 4 2014

*COMMENTARY: The index remains heavy having failed to break above last week's

highs with immediate focus now back on 2018 lows and then the weekly bear

channel base (87.202). Daily studies are well placed for further losses. Bulls

now need a close above 89.647 to gain breathing room and above 90.567 to hint at

a move to 91.526-751.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Bulls Focused On 2014 High

*RES 4: 3.223 - Monthly High July 1 2011 

*RES 3: 3.073 - Low July 6 2011 now resistance 

*RES 2: 3.041 - 2014 High Jan 2 

*RES 1: 2.965 - Daily Bull channel top

*PRICE: 2.919 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 2.902 - High Feb 12 now support 

*SUP 2: 2.844 - Hourly breakout level Feb 14 

*SUP 3: 2.808 - Low Feb 14 

*SUP 4: 2.786 - Low Feb 9

*COMMENTARY: Bulls regained the upper hand after the yield looked heavy in past

days with immediate focus now on the 3.041 2014 high. A close above this level

sees initial focus on 3.073-223 where July 2011 monthly highs are situated. O/B

studies and the Bollinger top (2.952) are concerns for bulls. In saying that,

bears now need a close below 2.844 to gain breathing room and below 2.808 to

shift initial focus to 2.755-758 where the 21-DMA is noted.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (J18) Gaining Traction Above 55-DMA 

*RES 4: $63.94 - High Feb 6 

*RES 3: $63.06 - 21-DMA 

*RES 2: $62.63 - Low Jan 19 now resistance 

*RES 1: $61.82 - High Feb 8

*PRICE: $61.08 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $60.49 - Hourly support Feb 15 

*SUP 2: $59.70 - Hourly resistance Feb 14 now support 

*SUP 3: $58.75 - Hourly resistance Feb 14 a now support 

*SUP 4: $57.88 - Low Feb 9

*COMMENTARY: Daily studies correcting from very O/S levels are well placed for

gains following the bounce from ahead of the 100-DMA. The contract is gaining

traction above the 55-DMA ($60.77) adding to bullish confidence. Overall bulls

look for a close above $63.94 to initially target 2018 highs. Bears now look for

a close below $59.70 to gain breathing room and below the 100-DMA to target the

200-DMA ($53.20).

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: $1374.9 Resistance Now Key

*RES 4: $1374.9 - 2016 High July 6 2016 

*RES 3: $1367.3 - Monthly High Aug 2 2016 

*RES 2: $1359.7 - Hourly support Jan 25 now resistance 

*RES 1: $1357.0 - High Jan 26

*PRICE: $1353.6 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1345.5 - Hourly support Feb 14 

*SUP 2: $1336.8 - Hourly resistance Feb 14 now support 

*SUP 3: $1336.5 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 4: $1319.4 - Low Feb 14

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from last week's dip back towards the 55-DMA saw an

aggressive break of the 21-DMA with focus now back on layers of resistance

$1357.0-1374.9. Bulls continue to look for a close above $1374.9 to confirm

focus on $1391.8-1433.3. Daily studies are well placed for gains. Bears now need

a close below $1345.5 to gain breathing room and below the 21-DMA to shift focus

back to $1302.5-1306.0.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]